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Interpreting the January Jobs Data

For many years I have written a regular monthly preview of the Employment Situation Report.  I have done extensive research on all of the methods and even visited the stat guys at the BLS to discuss their approach. My preview gives appropriate respect to the BLS, but also to the leading alternative methods.  My best […]

Weekly Sector Update – QQQ ($)


This week’s featured ETF is the PowerShares NASDAQ 100 tracking stock, QQQ.  The Q’s constitution is based on a modified market cap approach.  The weighting is adjusted each quarter, and the overall group is reconstituted annually. SOXX is still at the top of Felix’s rankings, but we discussed that ETF in detail last week, (see […]

Has Market Momentum Run Out?

The markets are slightly lower in early trading.  The S&P 500 is lower for a second day, something we haven’t seen since in several weeks.  It’s still early in the session, so the market could rebound and close strong.  But if we do get a second down day, some investors will ask “Has the market […]

Double-arm transplant: Advances in the medical revolution

Did you see the news about that incredible double arm transplantation at Johns Hopkins for a U.S. vet? I’m so proud of Dr. Jaimie Shores, originally from Truth or Consequences, N.M., who helped perform that procedure. It was fascinating listening to my veterinarian father grill Jaimie about the details of the procedure as we waited […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take


Here’s my take on the markets today, January 30th, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating again today. The 2Y Swap Spread is rising +2.3% to 16.4 bps(+10.0% in 5 days). The North America Investment Grade CDS Index is rising +1.9% to 87.81 bps. The […]

GDP Posts Surprising Contraction in Q4

The markets are slightly lower in early trading, but it looks more like slight profit taking as opposed to a negative reaction to this morning’s GDP report. Q4 GDP came in at -0.1%, a surprising contraction in the face of consensus expectations for a 1.0% gain.  But the headline figure looks weaker than what may […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, January 30, 2013 ($$)


Tuesday’s session turned out to be a pause that refreshed as the markets continued their slow but steady ascent. However, small caps and techs went along for the ride quite grudgingly. As I suspected, Ford (F) reported a better than expected quarter but the stock still fell. As I am putting capital into industrials, F […]

Biggest Error in Street Research — How You Can Profit

There is a very common research mistake. It is pervasive in Wall Street research, even that presented by the big-name firms. My academic friends are not immune, partly because they have their own set of incentives. My mission in this post is fourfold: Explain the problem in a way that it can be readily understood; […]

More Companies Issuing Cautious Guidance

The market is mixed in early trading with the S&P 500 up slightly but the Nasdaq down a little.  As I looked over the stocks of companies that reported earnings last night and this morning I see more negative reactions than we saw last week.  While many of these companies beat bottom line estimates, a […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, January 29, 2013 ($$)

So on the ninth day the streak ended. The streak that is, and not the rally. I read an interesting piece by Jeff Saut of Raymond James (RJF) who, applying his own set of statistics and technical indicators, laid out a very cogent theory that the rally was far from over and that through Friday, […]

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