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Indicator Update: Economic Soft Patch Coming?

With each new week, there is a fresh challenge to the most-hated market rally. Last week it was Cyrpus. As I have suggested over the last two weeks in the WTWA series, this issue created volatility that provided opportunities for both traders and investors. This week I predict that attention will focus on possible softening […]

Weekly Sector Update – ITB ($)


The model ratings are decidedly weaker this week. Comparing with last week, we featured  ITA,.   The sector strength has dropped from  61 to 38. Felix has a new favorite!  The new top ranking goes to  ITB,  the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction index.  Let us take our usual look from both the investor and […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, March 28, 2013 ($$)


After two days off to celebrate the Passover holiday with family and observe in synagogue, it is time to get back to focus on the markets. With Good Friday on the calendar for tomorrow, today is both the last day of the week and quarter.  After a down week last week, the first such occurrence […]

The Need for Flexible Thinking and Moving Price Targets

There is a broad group of individual investors who are completely out of stocks or significantly under-invested.  Many were paralyzed by fear in the time after 2008.  They have still not returned to investments in stocks. This is a natural and normal reaction to risk.  People fear losses more than they crave gains.  This natural […]

Retirement strategies for a brave new world

The cries of angst, agony and anger have crescendoed. Everybody I know, young and old, who has money saved, is in a panic about managing their assets in retirement and building those assets to get into retirement. When I was in high school, I used to sit around and play with compound interest on my […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, March 27th, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are deteriorating today. The FRA-OIS Spread is jumping +4.3% to 25.20 bps(+8.1% in 5 days). The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is falling -5.0% to -21.17 bps(-9.2% in 5 days). The European […]

Is Dallas the next Cyprus?


Cyprus is in big trouble but, as I’m sure you’ve heard, “it’s only a tiny fraction of the EU’s GDP, so who cares?” Well, I still don’t see it that way, and here’s why. Pretend it’s not Cyprus but, say, Dallas, Texas. The population of both Dallas and Cyprus has more than doubled in the […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, March 25th, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are deteriorating again today.  The 3M Euribor-OIS Spread is jumping +5.7% to 12.9 bps. The TED Spread is gaining +1.6% to 22.2 bps. The 2Y Swap Spread is rising +1.7% to 17.3 […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, March 25, 2013 ($$)


We wake up this morning to a higher market in Europe and rising futures in the US after the ECB and Cyprus have agreed on a rescue package. For the most part, we are winding up with what most rational market observers would have expected in the first place. We just wasted a week doing […]

Indicator Update: Can Cyprus Effects be Contained?

In a holiday-shortened week I expect the Cyprus story to remain on the front burner this week. As I write this post, there is no firm proposal. Whatever is proposed will be bad news for some and therefore great news for pundits and the media. Since we have little earnings or economic news, the field […]

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