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Are earnings already priced into stocks?

The Trader’s Question of the Day is “Are good earnings priced into these stocks already after this big run?”

Nobody will know the answer until we see how the first few earnings reports and get the markets’ reactions. Will the upside momentum continue or will we get a sell-the-news pullback when the earnings reports hit?

People always look to Alcoa as the first earnings report of the season, and for that reason, I tend to look right past it. The earnings reports that I’ll be focusing on first as my “tells” will be: Adtran ADTN 2.40% (reports on April 11) Fastenal FAST 0.11% (reports on April 12) and JPMorgan Chase JPM 0.11% (reports on the 13th) . And by the way, make sure you sign up to compete against me and some of my colleagues in the Fantasy Earnings Trader game here on Marketwatch this earnings season. Click here for details.

Until then, let’s tread (and trade) lightly as we head into the earnings season. It’s starting in just two weeks. Earnings, good or bad, for better or worse, will likely be the next catalyst for most stocks and for the broader markets too. I will probably have quite a few earnings-trades ideas when we finally get there so stay tuned here in The Cody Word or check out TradingWithCody.com. But there’s no way to start making the earnings-trades til we get there. Can’t rush it.

And here’s the Trader’s Deep Thought of the Day — Make sure you’re using the best tools to get your portfolio where you want it to go.

Are we using our brains and all the tools we actually have at our disposal? Look around — are you earning all the income and making all the best trades you possibly can?  I would bet probably not. We need to trade more like crows think.

Science in Action: Crow Intelligence

I’ve seen some crazy smart ravens and crows out here in NM over the years. Charlie and Claire, the raven couple who let me live on their land here in Alto, NM sure enjoy taunting my dog, Lobo. They were out there eating peanuts that I’d left for them when Lobo took off after them when I let him out this morning. They love to fly just over his head and yell “Caa!” as he sprints underneath them.

Today’s trader thought of the day — make sure you’re using the best tools to get your portfolio where you want it to go, including figuring out new ways to increase your income. And don’t rush into the earnings trading season until you’ve seen what tools you’re supposed to be using.

Cody Willard writes Revolution Investing for MarketWatch and posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com. At time of publication, Cody had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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