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Dumb Regulation is Good Regulation — How to Regulate the Banks

I wrote this on the 16th of March, 2010: -==-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==–=-==-=-=-=- Should regulation be dumb?  In one sense yes, in others, no.  It really depends on how well the regulators understand the risks involved, and how much they can encourage professionalism among profit center heads and risk managers.  As those two increase, regulation can be smart.  […]

A Few Notes From the Fordham Conference

I wrote the following on March 13th, 2010: –==–=-==-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-=-=-==-=-=–=-=-=-=-==- I will have a more comprehensive post tomorrow on my thoughts on bank regulation, but I will offer a few thoughts here.  One thing I found interesting at the conference was what did not get much play in terms of what helped to create the crisis. […]

The Rules, Part XII

I wrote the following on April 30th, 2010: =–=-==–=-=-=-=-=-=-==–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Growth in total factor outputs must equal the growth in payment to inputs.  The equity market cannot forever outgrow the real economy. This is the “real economy rule,” and was listed first in my document, but i have not gotten to it until now.  It is […]

An Analysis of Three-Month LIBOR 2005-2008

I downloaded the data for LIBOR over the period 2005-2008, and decided to run regressions of the 3-month rates submitted from each bank versus 3-month LIBOR, since I think it is the most commonly used. Here are the results: Note the inverse relationship between the willingness to be above the consensus, and the willingness to […]

The Rules, Part XI

I wrote the following on April 20th, 2010: -=–=-=-==-=-=–=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Could an investment bank go to junk status? Some of my “rules” were phrased as questions.  I wrote that one prior to 2002, possibly musing about downgrades in the credit ratings of investment banks.  But today we know the answer: NO. There are functions in the […]

The Rules, Part X

I wrote the following on April 18th, 2010: =-==–==-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- The more entities manage for total return, the more unstable the financial system becomes. The shorter the performance horizon, the more volatile the market becomes, and the more index-like managers become.  This is not a contradiction, because volatile markets initially force out those would bring stability, […]

The Rules, Part IX

I wrote the following on April 13th, 2010: -===-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==–=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-==- A few readers have asked me where they can find a list of my “Rules” posts.  You can find such a list here.  One further note on the “Rules” posts — I’m not exactly sure how many there will be, but if I write all of […]

The Rules, Part VIII

I wrote the following on April 11th, 2010: =–=-==-=–=-=-=-=-=-==–=-==-=–==-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-==-=- Illiquidity is a function of total transaction costs, which can be considered barriers to entry. (and exit…) Not everything can be liquid; not everything should be liquid; not everything will be liquid. I ran into the concept of complete markets for the first time while taking […]

Redacted Version of the June 2012 FOMC Statement

April 2012 June 2012 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately this year. “This year” makes it more of a historical statement, and […]

The Rules, Part VII

I wrote the following on April 8th, 2010: -==–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- In a long bull market, leverage builds up in hidden ways within corporations, and does not get revealed in any significant way until the bear phase comes. If I were to change that sentence, I would change the word “corporations” to “organizations.”  Why?  Everyone attributes greed […]

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