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The Rules, Part VI

I wrote the following on April 7th, 2010: -==–=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= History has a nasty tendency to not repeat, when everyone is relying on it to repeat. History has a nasty tendency to repeat, when everyone is relying on it not to repeat.  Thus another Great Depression is possible, if not likely eventually. When people rely on […]

Industry Ranks June 2012

My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic.  Green industries are cold.  Red industries are hot.  If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the question, “Where are trends under-discounted?”  Price momentum tends to persist, but look for areas where it might be even better in the near term. […]

The Rules, Part V

I wrote the following on March 28th, 2010: -==-=–=-==-=-=-=-=–==-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Tonight’s rule:  Massive debt issuance on a sector-wide basis will usually have a slump following it, due to a capacity glut. If you are a bond manager, it pays to do what is difficult.  Buy proportionately less or none of the sector that is the heavy […]

The Rules, Part IV

I wrote this on March 10th, 2010: -=-==-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Okay, here is tonight’s rule: Governments that scam the asset markets (and their citizens) take all manner of half measures to defend failed policies before undertaking structural reform.  (This includes defending the currency, some asset sales, anything that avoids true shrinkage of the role of government.)  The […]

The Rules, Part III

I wrote the following on March 10th, 2010: =-=–=-==-=-=–==-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=- Okay, here is tonight’s rule: The assumption of normality for asset price changes is wrong in virtually every financial market setting.  The proper distributions are fatter tailed and more negatively skewed. Normality allows researchers to publish, regardless of the truth. Normality allows risk managers and regulators […]

The Rules, Part II

I wrote the following on March 6th, 2010: -=–==–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Unless there is a natural purchaser of an exposure that one is trying to hedge, someone must speculate to a degree to allow you to hedge.  If the speculator is undercapitalized, risks to the financial system rise. This rule is pretty simple.  There are few places […]

The Rules, Part I

I wrote the following on March 6th, 2010: =-=–=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=–==–=-==-=–= Dear readers, I am now on Twitter — AlephBlog is my moniker if you want to follow me. I have been somewhat reluctant to do this, but tonight’s post stems from a file on nonlinear dynamics on my computer that I developed between 1999 and 2003 […]

The Forever Fund

I wrote the following on the November 13th, 2009.  This post is a personal favorite of mine, and Dr. Jeff liked it as well: -==-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Imagine for a moment that you were approached by a very wealthy foundation, and they asked you to invest their money.  They offer a low asset-based fee, but the assets […]

In Defense of Home Bias

I wrote this on January 31st, 2010: -=-=-==-=–=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- I ordinarily like the writings of Jason Zweig, so this post is not meant as a criticism of him.  He wrote an interesting article suggesting that US investors may suffer reduced performance because they invest too much in US stocks.  Ideally, shouldn’t investors seek out the stocks […]

Fear the Boom and Bust — an Economics Lesson

I wrote the following on January 9th, 2010: =-=–==–=-==-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-==–=-= Ordinarily, I don’t think much of video on the web.  Writing is usually a more concise way to get a view across.  But video can be more effective if it gets past the genre of “talking heads,” in which case, one is usually better off reading […]

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