Ready or not, we should expect a week dominated by an even greater focus on Fed policy. There are four reasons: The economic data calendar is very light; Earnings season has ended; Many will be heading for the exits early, anticipating a holiday weekend; and finally Bernanke testifies on the economy before the Congressional Joint [...]
Weekly Sector Update – GEX ($)
May 17, 2013 By Leave a Comment
This week, high on the list is Van Eck’s Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX). Last week, GEX was in the penalty box and we discussed ITB. ITB is still the top rated, but a close and strong second is GEX. We really don’t have to wonder why since Tesla has been in the [...]
David Tepper is (a little) Wrong
May 14, 2013 By Leave a Comment
When David Tepper speaks, the market listens. In Autumn, 2010, Tepper, the highly successful billionaire hedge fund manager, explained that for stock investors, the Fed had your back. Using options jargon he said that there was a “put” (downside protection) regardless of what the economy did. While causation is always hard to prove, the comments [...]
Indicator Update: Consumers and Housing
May 12, 2013 By Leave a Comment
The economic recovery, to the surprise of nearly everyone, has been consumer-driven. This has occurred despite increased savings and an overall improvement in household balance sheets. Businesses have been cautious to invest and to hire. State and local governments have been slashing spending and employees. I expect a week with a consumer focus. It starts [...]
Weekly Sector Update – ITB ($)
May 9, 2013 By 2 Comments
It seems we are getting better results week by week, inch by inch. The model has a higher positive strength this week, along with a nearly doubled median strength. Our featured sector is the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction Index, ITB. We have noted that some hot sectors were in the penalty box, and have [...]
Lessons from Earnings Season and the Dog that Did Not Bark
May 8, 2013 By Leave a Comment
As the Q113 earnings season reaches its close, there is a consensus around many conclusions: Earnings are growing at a rate less than the stock market. The P/E multiple is higher. Is this justified? Earnings exceeded expectations only because those expectations had been reduced. Is this a charade – the dance of the Wall Street [...]
Dow 20K — Halfway There
May 7, 2013 By 4 Comments
Indicator Update: New Leadership for the Stock Market?
May 5, 2013 By Leave a Comment
For several weeks I have been monitoring a developing change in the US equity markets. There is a growing perception that some of the “safe” assets may not be so safe. There is a corresponding realization that the “risky” choices might not be so risky. Some see this as a sign of danger. Cam Hui, [...]
Weekly Sector Update – IBB ($)
May 5, 2013 By 1 Comment
Last week, we featured ICF, still the top choice among ETFs that are not in the penalty box. It has declined slightly in strength (56 to 46), but still a hold/buy indicated by Felix. This week’s highlight is the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF — IBB. The ETF is currently in the penalty box, but has [...]
April Employment Report Preview
May 1, 2013 By 1 Comment
Recent economic data, especially since mid-March, has taken a turn for the worse. Initial jobless claims have shown fluctuations that defied seasonal adjustment processes. Just as I (accurately) suggested last month, it is a time for caution. I will elaborate on my reasoning in the conclusion, but let us first review the expectations for Friday’s [...]
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