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My Gut Feeling for Today, July 11, 2013


By the skin of its teeth, the S&P 500 (SPX) extended its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session. The Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) on the other hand, by (as we say at the racetrack) lost by the flare of a horse’s nostril. So, for the most part, it was a boring trading session, pretty […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, July 9, 2013


Alcoa (AA) reported earnings last evening. There are a few takeaways. First, that demand appears to be on the rise for aluminum and aluminum products. Second, despite the company’s history, it managed to better Wall Street expectations. Last, Alcoa is still not investible but the companies that demand its products such as automotive and industrial […]

Indicator Update: Will Corporate Earnings Measure Up?

In last week’s prediction for the week ahead I raised the question of how would stocks do in an environment of rising rates? This kept alive my streak of guessing the market theme for the coming week, especially since rates took another leg higher and stocks seemed to cope with the news. The coming week […]

The Continuing Quest for Yield

In the last few weeks, nearly every income-oriented strategy has crashed. Investors who need reasonable yield have chased all of the usual suspects. The result? Yield-oriented investments are no longer safe. They have become both expensive and risky. Investors in some bond funds are about to learn that they can lose more than a year’s […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, June 26, 2013


Hold your hats; we received very good positive economic data on Tuesday which helped to propel the markets higher. I thought that the message that the bears were sending us last week is that good news was bad for the markets. A positive economy was supposed to force the FOMC into ending its quantitative easing […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, June 25, 2013

There is a tendency that after a poor week in the market and particularly one that was as dramatic as last week for retail investors to spend the weekend contemplating, no obsessing, over the stock market. Their inclination is to call their brokers before the market opens on Monday (even over the weekend) and tell […]

Indicator Update: Digesting the Fed News

We have the first reaction to the FOMC announcement and the Bernanke press conference, but there is more to come. Sometimes there is a compelling story line, and the financial media will not let go. This is such a time. Every twist and turn of the market is attributed to Fed policy or interpretations by […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, June 21, 2013

I have two confessions to make. First, I did not watch the markets yesterday. Rather, I was watching an NSYNCH concert because it appeared that every asset class was move in synchronization. I could swear that was Joey Fatone on CNBC yesterday.Secondly, I have to admit that when charting out my expectations for yesterday’s market, […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, June 20, 2013


Sell, sell, sell. Sell it all. Sell Stocks. Sell Bonds. Sell Oil. Sell Gold. Sell Foreign Currencies. OK, buy Sugar just to make it interesting. Last night, I got a call from Mortimer Duke who demanded to “turn those machines back on. “ Now wasn’t that a silly session? We knew what the FOMC’s intentions […]

Indicator Update: A Tipping Point for Stocks?

Each week I consider the upcoming calendar and the current market, predicting the main theme we should expect. This step is an important part of my trading preparation and planning. It takes more hours than you can imagine. My record is pretty good, with recent topics including Fedspeak, increased volatility, and a focus on interest […]

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