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Indicator Update: More Volatility Ahead!

This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention. Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence […]

Indicator Update: Fluff or Fundamentals?

Sometimes markets emphasize simple themes, rejecting even modest efforts at nuance. The current big stories are the record highs in stocks, the length of time since the last significant correction, and the “market is rigged” meme. These themes are all easily grasped and interesting media fodder. It has set the agenda. Meanwhile, the economy seems […]

Weekly Sector Update – FXI ($)

TCA-ETF Felix EXPANDED APR 02, 2014

FXI is iShares China Large-Cap ETF. FXI is the top-rated ETF by Felix. It has an incredibly high rating of 105. It is incredible considering last week, FXI had a strength of 1! Unfortunately, it is still in the penalty box. China’s releasing a “mini-stimulus”, we are curious how this will affect the US economy and markets. Felix is […]

Indicator Update: Yellen Takes the Stage

Rightly or wrongly, markets continue the Fed fixation. Many expect (or demand?) a change in Fed policy. This week marks the first FOMC meeting with Janet Yellen as the Chair. Since there will also be an update to forecasts, the announcement will include a press conference. With some fresh data and plenty of news since […]

Indicator Update: The Current Risk/Reward for Stocks

With stocks hitting new highs and the bull market reaching age five, the potential for a market top is a popular subject. There is a light schedule of economic releases, so pundits will be free to spend nearly full time explaining the rally and offering their forecasts. Expect even more articles like “Six reasons this […]

Indicator Update: More Clarity on Employment?

Employment remains the paramount concern – for the economy, for the Fed, and for financial markets. There are many employment indicators, but that can be more confusing than helpful. Rarely is there a consistent picture. Can we find more clarity about employment? Last Week’s Theme Recap I expected last week’s theme to be focused on […]

Indicator Update: What about the weakness in housing?

Housing data have clearly hit a soft patch. How much of the deceleration is important? How much can be attributed to weather? Most importantly: Does weakness in housing threaten the economic recovery? What does it mean for stocks? [note to readers. I always try for weekend publication, but sometimes I cannot work then. The links […]

The Expensive Fixation on Profit Margins

The insightful investor understands mean reversion. It is a mystery concept for most – fancy talk. I will attempt a commonsense explanation with some relevant examples. In conclusion, I will show why this is important. The Technical Definition Wolfram MathWorld is a great source on issues like this: Reversion to the mean, also called regression […]

Indicator Update: Is the Correction Over?

Did last week signal the end of the long-awaited market correction? Less than 10%? What was behind the reversal in stock prices? The most definitive piece of good news was the end of the debt ceiling debate, although that should not have been a surprise. The Yellen testimony set a record for length, but also […]

Indicator Update: Is there a meaningful market message?

After a bad week in U.S. equities and a really bad week in emerging markets, is there a relevant message? If so, does it matter for day traders, swing traders, investors, or all of the above? The week ahead features a real free-for-all with plenty of data, Fed news, and earnings results. After weeks of […]

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