Gary Smith’s Market Take

MarketTakePic

Here’s my take on the markets today, May 18, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating again today. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -2.4% to 35.75 bps. The France sovereign cds is down -1.6% to 217.34 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is falling [...]

Don’t Become the Market

It was late 1993, and I knew that we could make a lot of money if I sold floating-rate Guaranteed Investment Contracts.  Let me quote an earlier piece: My goal as an actuarial businessman was to make profits with modest risk for my ultimate owners, who were the mutual policyholders.  Once I faced a situation [...]

Cody Willard on Apple suppliers, oil, Greece and more

Here’s the transcript of this week’s chat at TradingWithCody.com, a service not affiliated with MarketWatch. All right guys, ask me anything. Q. Any idea or explanation why some important AAPL suppliers have completely different behavior? QCOM,BRCM more or less are following AAPL (about -10% since their earnings report) and others ( SWKS and mostly CRUS [...]

Are you ready for water inflation?

Liquidity

We haven’t learned any lessons from the ethanol debacle. Subverting our food supply chain in search of energy is one of the dumbest trades of all time.  So when I see headlines like this from the Denver Post, I fret: Fracking bidders top farmers at water auction By BRUCE FINLEY The Denver Post DENVER—Front Range farmers [...]

My Gut Feeling for Today, May 17, 2012 ($)

It just doesn’t matter !!! It just doesn’t matter that US economic data continues to improve It just doesn’t matter that housing in the US and related mortgage data is on the upswing It just doesn’t matter that earnings continue to better Wall Street consensus estimates It just doesn’t matter that Apple is about to [...]

On Sovereign and Quasi-Sovereign Risks

I wrote the following on December 1st, 2009: -==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- I like investing internationally, because of the diversification it offers, both in stocks and bonds.  Or, think of it as a hedge.  Will the American Experiment continue to prosper?  We have come a long way from the Founding Fathers, and more than half of it is [...]

Flip It: Why the Greek/EU set-up is bullish

Cross-posted from TradingWithCody.com, a service not affiliated with MarketWatch. “Flip It.” It’s a concept that I created when I was learning to invest that is all about looking at the news, the trades, the analysis, and everything else completely upside down from what you’ve been taught. When the economy is rosy, and everybody thinks it’s [...]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

MarketTakePic

Here’s my take on the markets today, May 16, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating again today. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -3.7% to 36.7 bps. The Spain sovereign cds is down -1.7% to 537.22 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is falling [...]

Notes from Recent Travels

I wrote the following on November 21st, 2009: -===–==-=-=-=-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Before I begin this evening, I would like to comment on my absence for the last week.  I gave a talk on Friday to the Southeastern Actuaries Conference.  I found myself behind the eight-ball, because of my many other projects, and so I had to block [...]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

MarketTakePic

Here’s my take on the markets today, May 14, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are deteriorating significantly today. The 2Y Swap Spread is surging +13.4% to 38.56 bps(+27.3% in 5 days). The FRA-OIS Spread is jumping +12.7% to 48.75 bps(+32.6% in 5 days). The 3M EUR/USD [...]

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