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Indicator Update: Will Earnings Growth Keep the Stock Rally Rolling?

If you could know one thing about stocks in the coming year, it would be what to expect from corporate earnings. The Q4 2013 reports will provide a preview, with attention starting this week. Has the improvement in economic strength translated into higher corporate profits? Last Week Recap Last week I suggested that with the […]

Indicator Update: Will Good News Finally be Good for Markets?

Suppose you knew –right now, at the start of the week – that the payroll employment report would show an extreme number. With 200K jobs expected, suppose it were to be 350K? Or 50K? If you had advance information from Mr. Beeks would you even know what to do? This week the market will ask […]

Indicator Update: How to Evaulate the 2014 Forecasts

Sometimes the calendar of news and events makes it easy to predict what will grab our attention in the week ahead. In the last few weeks leading up to the Fed tapering announcement, I highlighted the following: Upside risk for investors on the sidelines; The mistake in preoccupation with bubbles; The key question of holiday […]

Indicator Update: Review of 2013 Trends — Hot or Not?

This is a special edition of my Indicator Update.  With holidays and market closings in the middle of the next two weeks, we can expect a time of relative quiet.  It is a good time to review the lessons from 2013.  I’ll have a regular WTWA next week and (soon) my regular preview of the […]

Indicator Update: Will the consumer be spending for the holidays?

Over the last few weeks I have highlighted several changing market concerns. We worried about the government shutdown and the debt ceiling. More recently my emphasis has moved from earnings and seasonal worries, to the possibility of a year-end rally. Last week we highlighted the “bubble talk” and that proved to be a big theme. […]

Four Costly Investment Mistakes

Continuing with the Eight Traits of the Insightful Investor…. The Insightful Investor is open to other viewpoints. Every question can be approached this way. It is a useful investment skill, but it requires discipline. It is so easy to fall in love with your own ideas and positions. It is especially dangerous when you mix […]

Indicator Update: Can Investors Think Beyond the Bubble Machine?

In the early days of television (starting in 1955), one of the most popular programs was The Lawrence Welk Show. The audience demographic can be inferred from the sponsors, which featured Geritol (which addressed the issue of “tired blood”), Polident (for dentures) and Serutan (spell it backwards). The effervescent dance sound from Welk’s orchestra was […]

Indicator Update: Does sitting on the sideline have upside risk?

Last week I asked whether it was time for the regular year-end rally. This was a pretty good guess about the media focus for last week. With little fresh data on the calendar, it is open season for pundits. Here are the themes I see: Technical traders who see a short-term top; The regular parade […]

Indicator Update: Time for a Year-End Rally?

Two weeks ago (I finally got a weekend away last week) my WTWA theme was a return to normalcy: Less Washington and more market fundamentals. This was pretty accurate in the focus on earnings. Less accurate was my prediction that good economic news would be good news. The market still has a Fed fixation. Like […]

Investing in the Shutdown Aftermath

The verdict from traders and the punditry is in: The bungling Washington politicians have merely “kicked the can” and we must all revisit the same problems in 90 days. The prevailing sentiment is extremely negative. The Yahoo Finance polls are not a scientific sample, but they are a reflection of attentive investors. In asking how […]

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