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Indicator Update: Will Central Bankers Unwind at Jackson Hole?

I could not resist the whimsical title. It is time for the annual Fed Symposium at Jackson Hole. This event, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has historically been the scene for various important hints about policy changes. It is also an occasion for informal, face-to-face meetings among central bankers and economists […]

Indicator Update: Will the Fed Experiment End Badly?

Put together these ingredients: The biggest weekly market decline in two years, the winding down of earnings season, and a light week for economic data. The result? Financial TV producers will be seeking experts to explain whether we are starting a major correction. Analyzing the Fed will be a favorite theme. Unless and until we […]

Indicator Update: Time for a mid-course correction?

After an event-filled 3 ½ day trading week, it is time to pause and reconsider. There is little fresh news in store this week, and therefore plenty of time for calendar-driven introspection. Is it time for a mid-course correction? I expect the punditry to assemble the evidence, with each concluding that (s)he has been right […]

Indicator Update: The Fed Behind the Curve?

Once again, the market focus has turned to the Fed. For many months the official Fed policy has included an inflation target, an annual rate of 2%. For many months I have written that inflation will not matter until this level is in play. Suddenly, after a single month of data approaching this range, some […]

Indicator Update: Yellen Takes the Stage

Rightly or wrongly, markets continue the Fed fixation. Many expect (or demand?) a change in Fed policy. This week marks the first FOMC meeting with Janet Yellen as the Chair. Since there will also be an update to forecasts, the announcement will include a press conference. With some fresh data and plenty of news since […]

Indicator Update: Will Earnings Growth Keep the Stock Rally Rolling?

If you could know one thing about stocks in the coming year, it would be what to expect from corporate earnings. The Q4 2013 reports will provide a preview, with attention starting this week. Has the improvement in economic strength translated into higher corporate profits? Last Week Recap Last week I suggested that with the […]

Indicator Update: Will Good News Finally be Good for Markets?

Suppose you knew –right now, at the start of the week – that the payroll employment report would show an extreme number. With 200K jobs expected, suppose it were to be 350K? Or 50K? If you had advance information from Mr. Beeks would you even know what to do? This week the market will ask […]

Indicator Update: How to Evaulate the 2014 Forecasts

Sometimes the calendar of news and events makes it easy to predict what will grab our attention in the week ahead. In the last few weeks leading up to the Fed tapering announcement, I highlighted the following: Upside risk for investors on the sidelines; The mistake in preoccupation with bubbles; The key question of holiday […]

Indicator Update: Review of 2013 Trends — Hot or Not?

This is a special edition of my Indicator Update.  With holidays and market closings in the middle of the next two weeks, we can expect a time of relative quiet.  It is a good time to review the lessons from 2013.  I’ll have a regular WTWA next week and (soon) my regular preview of the […]

Mistaken Market Inferences

Continuing with the Eight Traits of the Insightful Investor… The Insightful Investor does not confuse organizational and individual behavior. Here is an example from today’s news – a quiet market day in a pre-holiday period before a Fed decision. Here was the summary: Investors reluctant to make decisive moves a day before hearing whether the […]

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