The word for the day yesterday was bloated. People often ask me to explain how the market works. I say it is like having a four course meal. You enjoy it, digest it, process it and then finally your body shall we say emits what is left over. Yesterday was a state of bloating in […]
My Gut Feeling for Today, December 17, 2012 ($)

The tragic events of Friday in Newtown, CT captured the headlines and airwaves throughout the world this weekend. All for good reason as the act was sickening and horrific. These were young children that were slaughtered. As Americans we came together regardless of our political persuasion or religious beliefs to and pray, express our condolences […]
Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, November 14th, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mixed today. The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is rising +1.9% to -27.47 bps. The TED Spread is falling -6.7% to 20.85 bps. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -2.58% […]
Weekly Sector Update – Holding on ($)
My Gut Feeling for Today, August 13, 2012 ($)

We are now entering the beginning of the traditional August vacation slowdown. Typically this is quite evident in Europe but it now seems that Americans are beginning to take it easy for the month as well. Summer sleep-away camps have ended or will end by the upcoming weekend. Family vacations will begin in earnest soon. […]
Dumb Regulation is Good Regulation — How to Regulate the Banks
I wrote this on the 16th of March, 2010: -==-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==–=-==-=-=-=- Should regulation be dumb? In one sense yes, in others, no. It really depends on how well the regulators understand the risks involved, and how much they can encourage professionalism among profit center heads and risk managers. As those two increase, regulation can be smart. […]
Weekly Sector Update – Energy ($)
Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, July 11, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mixed today. The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is rising +9.5% to -52.0 bps. The TED Spread is falling -1.8% to 36.5 bps. The European Investment Grade CDS Index is falling […]
My Gut Feeling for Today, July 11, 2012 ($)

Welcome to the season. I am not talking about earnings season, rather the summer trading season. Volume will be light, moves will be exaggerated, false news will be easily spread and vacations will leave junior staff in charge. Yesterday was a prime example of this type of market environment. We had several directional changes in […]