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A Few Notes From the Fordham Conference

I wrote the following on March 13th, 2010: –==–=-==-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-=-=-==-=-=–=-=-=-=-==- I will have a more comprehensive post tomorrow on my thoughts on bank regulation, but I will offer a few thoughts here.  One thing I found interesting at the conference was what did not get much play in terms of what helped to create the crisis. […]

An Analysis of Three-Month LIBOR 2005-2008

I downloaded the data for LIBOR over the period 2005-2008, and decided to run regressions of the 3-month rates submitted from each bank versus 3-month LIBOR, since I think it is the most commonly used. Here are the results: Note the inverse relationship between the willingness to be above the consensus, and the willingness to […]

Weekly Sector Update – Financials ($)

iyg

Financials have crowded the list of ETFs not in the penalty box this week. The top position Felix has kept is ITB, which you can read more about here. Felix is talking about financial services, the sector and US banks.  Let’s take a closer look. Investor Take The ETFs that Felix likes are IYG, IYF […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, July 2, 2012 ($)

crystalball

The end of the Eurozone has been pushed off once again. The shorts are going to whine that the can is being kicked down the road. Here is what I say – who cares. You have to hit the ball that is being pitched to you, not the ball in a game from another pitcher […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, June 29, 2012 ($)

crystalball

This messy ugly quarter is finally over at 4pm. However, it will be a fun day as we have plenty of headline news to trade off of coming out of Europe. Here is my take. I watch the action on my Bloomberg all night long. After the sharp intraday rally post-Obamacare sell-off, the futures trended […]

The Rules, Part X

I wrote the following on April 18th, 2010: =-==–==-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- The more entities manage for total return, the more unstable the financial system becomes. The shorter the performance horizon, the more volatile the market becomes, and the more index-like managers become.  This is not a contradiction, because volatile markets initially force out those would bring stability, […]

The Rules, Part VII

I wrote the following on April 8th, 2010: -==–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- In a long bull market, leverage builds up in hidden ways within corporations, and does not get revealed in any significant way until the bear phase comes. If I were to change that sentence, I would change the word “corporations” to “organizations.”  Why?  Everyone attributes greed […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

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Here’s my take on the markets today, June 15, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly improving today. The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is rising +6.9% to -50.25 bps. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -10.0% to 28.0 bps. The FRA-OIS Spread is falling -4.7% […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

MarketTakePic

Here’s my take on the markets today, June 13, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mixed today. The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is rising +2.6% to -54.73 bps. The TED Spread is falling -1.3% to 37.66 bps. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -2.6% to […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, June 13, 2012 ($)

crystalball

Call it a push. The bears stole one from the bulls on Monday. The bulls stole one from the bears on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (SPX) is flat for the week so far. Of greater importance is that A-Rod tied Lou Gehrig for the all-time career grand slam record and moved the Yankees into sole […]

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