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Indicator Update: The Fed Behind the Curve?

Once again, the market focus has turned to the Fed. For many months the official Fed policy has included an inflation target, an annual rate of 2%. For many months I have written that inflation will not matter until this level is in play. Suddenly, after a single month of data approaching this range, some […]

Tecnically Correct, But Risky Anyway

The talking heads contend stocks are reasonably valued or even cheap. Heck, Bubbles Bernanke just said they were within the normal range of valuations when asked about bubbles. He wouldn’t recognize a bubble if it blew him in a back alley. Technically, those contending stocks are normally priced at 16x’s are correct. But that’s the […]

Indicator Update: Review of 2013 Trends — Hot or Not?

This is a special edition of my Indicator Update.  With holidays and market closings in the middle of the next two weeks, we can expect a time of relative quiet.  It is a good time to review the lessons from 2013.  I’ll have a regular WTWA next week and (soon) my regular preview of the […]

Mistaken Market Inferences

Continuing with the Eight Traits of the Insightful Investor… The Insightful Investor does not confuse organizational and individual behavior. Here is an example from today’s news – a quiet market day in a pre-holiday period before a Fed decision. Here was the summary: Investors reluctant to make decisive moves a day before hearing whether the […]

Indicator Update: Will Weak Earnings Choke Off the Stock Rally?

It is time for a return to normalcy! I expect much less Washington politics and much more focus on corporate earnings. While economic data reports are still delayed and distorted, we will gradually get back to analysis of economic fundamentals as well. Last week’s theme emphasized the end of the apparent Washington stalemate – no […]

Investing in the Shutdown Aftermath

The verdict from traders and the punditry is in: The bungling Washington politicians have merely “kicked the can” and we must all revisit the same problems in 90 days. The prevailing sentiment is extremely negative. The Yahoo Finance polls are not a scientific sample, but they are a reflection of attentive investors. In asking how […]

Indicator Update: An Endgame for the Debt Ceiling Debate

In chess, a stalemate is a drawn game. Chess players study endgames, where small advantages become big wins. Computers have now solved these endgames – all of them! Some require dozens of precise moves. A mistake converts a draw into a win or a loss. Humans make mistakes. Political processes are inherently human. It is […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, October 11th, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly improving again today. The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is rising +8.3% to -7.73 bps. The TED Spread is declining -10.0% to 17.76 bps. The North America Investment Grade CDS […]

Indicator Update: Looking beyond the Washington Logjam

Is it premature to think ahead, to a time after the budget and debt logjam is broken? Markets are celebrated for anticipatory power. There are already some signs this is happening. We would all enjoy relief from the parade of politicians and pundits –and especially the annoying and unhelpful countdown clock. For the last two […]

Weekly Sector Update – IBB ($)


IBB, is the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF. There is no surprise that healthcare is a hot topic. However, I believe that Felix has this ETF merely by process of elimination. The strength is as not as high as last week’s SOXX. Overall, everything is a bit weaker this week. IBB happened to land on the top. If you […]

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