Gary Smith’s Market Take

MarketTakePic

Here’s my take on the markets today, May 18, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating again today. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -2.4% to 35.75 bps. The France sovereign cds is down -1.6% to 217.34 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is falling [...]

Don’t Become the Market

It was late 1993, and I knew that we could make a lot of money if I sold floating-rate Guaranteed Investment Contracts.  Let me quote an earlier piece: My goal as an actuarial businessman was to make profits with modest risk for my ultimate owners, who were the mutual policyholders.  Once I faced a situation [...]

Weekly Sector Update – Biotechnology Shows Strength

Expanded FELIX 05-16-12

This week’s featured ETF is the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB).  The ETF tracks the NASDAQ Biotechnology index.  The top holdings include Alexion Pharmaceuticals and Amgen.  Here is a complete list of the top holdings.  The top ten holdings make up about 50% of the fund, so the concentration is not too bad. The trailing P/E multiple [...]

Cody Willard on Apple suppliers, oil, Greece and more

Here’s the transcript of this week’s chat at TradingWithCody.com, a service not affiliated with MarketWatch. All right guys, ask me anything. Q. Any idea or explanation why some important AAPL suppliers have completely different behavior? QCOM,BRCM more or less are following AAPL (about -10% since their earnings report) and others ( SWKS and mostly CRUS [...]

Are you ready for water inflation?

Liquidity

We haven’t learned any lessons from the ethanol debacle. Subverting our food supply chain in search of energy is one of the dumbest trades of all time.  So when I see headlines like this from the Denver Post, I fret: Fracking bidders top farmers at water auction By BRUCE FINLEY The Denver Post DENVER—Front Range farmers [...]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

MarketTakePic

Here’s my take on the markets today, May 16, 2012. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating again today. The 2Y Swap Spread is falling -3.7% to 36.7 bps. The Spain sovereign cds is down -1.7% to 537.22 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is falling [...]

My Gut Feeling for Today, May 16, 2012 ($)

crystalball

With half of the month of May in the books, the S&P 500 (SPX) is lower by 4.81% for the month and has declined 6.45% from its recent high. So, despite all of the seeming panic out there, this is just a garden variety pullback. The markets were cruising along yesterday until the last hour [...]

Will Facebook’s IPO make E-Trade party like it’s 1999?

ETFC

Talking babies notwithstanding, Etrade has seen better days.  It’s the rare company that got clobbered by Web Bubble 1.0 AND the ownership of subprime debt.  Here’s a chart of its all-time performance: ETFC Facebook recently added Etrade as an underwriter along with usual suspects like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (lead underwriter), Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, [...]

My Gut Feeling for Today, May 15, 2012 ($)

crystalball

We had another ugly session yesterday with Greece and Europe once again being the locus of the problem. Greece continues to falter politically and economically as the country is unable to form a coalition government. There are a series of games of chicken being played in Europe. One is the ECB versus Greece. The other [...]

Notes from Recent Travels

I wrote the following on November 21st, 2009: -===–==-=-=-=-=-=–=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Before I begin this evening, I would like to comment on my absence for the last week.  I gave a talk on Friday to the Southeastern Actuaries Conference.  I found myself behind the eight-ball, because of my many other projects, and so I had to block [...]

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