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Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, September 27th, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are deteriorating today. The  3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is falling -6.9% to -6.5 bps. The Libor-OIS Spread is jumping +11.4% to 14.4 bps. The US sovereign cds is rising another +2.8% […]

Gary Smith’s Market Take

Here’s my take on the markets today, August 9th, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here. Credit gauges are mixed today. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is down -3.2% to 39.75 bps. The Spain sovereign cds is down -1.9% to 231.66 bps. The Italy sovereign cds is down -.9% to […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, May 30, 2013


As I suspected, Wednesday would be a teeter-totter day with the markets opening lower and bottoming just after 11AM. Overnight Japan took it on the chin declining by over 5%. I am adding to my positions in the Wisdom tree Japan Hedged ETF (DXJ) and in the process building my position to nearly 3% of […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, February 4, 2013 ($$)


For the fifth time in six years the Super Bowl was a close game. The winners on the field this time around were the Baltimore Ravens. Off the field, the winners were: CBS (CBS) which benefited from additional advertising and show promotion time in an extended game, thanks to the blackout in the Mercedes Benz  Superdome and […]

My Gut Feeling for 2013 ($$)


  Happy New Year to all. 2012 was a year full of ups and down; elections; fiscal and budgetary issues around the globe; a Summer Olympics; and, a severe drought. Once again the major averages, except the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) all posted double digit gains despite the protestations of the bears. To the surprise […]

Indicator Update: Expecting too Much from Jackson Hole?

After weeks of anticipation, we may get the answer to a key question: Will the Fed launch another round of Quantitative Easing? Since the decision for QE II is linked to Fed Chair Bernanke’s 2010 speech to the annual Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole, some expect a similar outcome this time.  There is obvious confusion. […]

S&P 500 corporate earnings update

We havent updated the S&P 500 forward earnings estimate for a few weeks since there is little to talk about: the latest “forward 4-quarter” estimate for the S&P 500 is $105.88, still below the peak of $107 hit in July, 11, October ’11 and then again in January ’12, so corporate earnings ahve clearly flattened […]

S&P 500 earnings update – still pretty stagnant but not eroding rapidly

The “forward 4-quarter” earnings estimate for the S&P 500 fell to $103.38 last week, down slightly from the previous week’s $103.80 and a continued drip lower from the July and October peaks of $107. Still, with the semiconductor preannouncements and weaker guidance from companies like MMM, a drop from $107 to $103 over a 5 […]

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