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Cody Willard: How I’m trading FB now after the shocking quarter

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Google, Apple, Broadcom can’t catch a sustained bid. Softee’s got a lot of pressure on it Friday with the release of Windows 8 and the Surface and it’s acting sick too.

Path of least resistance has been lower for the last couple weeks as I’ve been saying and at some point we’ll get a reversal that’ll rip higher, at least short-term. No sense rushing into anything if you’ve been patiently buying the panics and selling the relief rallies as we’ve been suggesting all year.

On a similar note. Here’s how a great example of how the mainstream media works.

And they followed that article up a few hours later with this:

Those are the articles that Bloomberg chose to run back to back yesterday. Read from the articles themselves:

Facebook Inc. (FB) is set to post another quarter of slowing revenue growth after struggling to wring money from advertisers seeking to connect with users of mobile devices.

In the second earnings report since its May initial public offering, the company may say third-quarter sales rose 29 percent from a year earlier to $1.23 billion, the average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s less than the 32 percent year-over-year rise it posted in the second quarter and a 45 percent gain from a year earlier in the first quarter.

“Monetizing mobile has been an issue,” said Joe Bonner, an analyst at Argus Research Co., who rates the shares a hold and doesn’t own them. “If you can’t sell ads to those people, you’ve got a problem.”

A few hours later:

Facebook Inc. (FB), owner of the biggest social network, posted sales that toppedanalysts’ estimates, a sign of early success in a push to make more money from advertisements aimed at users of handheld electronics.

Third-quarter sales rose 32 percent to $1.26 billion, Menlo Park, California-based Facebook said today in a statement. That compares with the average estimate of $1.23 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profit excluding certain items also exceeded projections by a penny.

Arvind Bhatia, an analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach Inc. said, “They still have a long way to go to prove that this is sustainable — they can keep going in this direction, but what it shows is that things can move relatively quickly.”

With mobile marketing making gains, the number of ads being shown kept pace with the growth in users during the quarter, Facebook Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman said during a call with analysts today. Ad prices increased 7 percent, while the number of ads delivered increased 27 percent.

“Relatively quickly.” Nice backhanded compliment, I guess. Pretty remarkable how set groupthink can become about a stock like this. Anyway, Facebook’s FB -1.88% up 20% this morning and we’ve got some big gains on the recent tranches of calls and common that we’ve been buying here on the site and are now up net/net on the Facebook trades. I’m going to trim down just a little bit of it this morning.

As for how I’m trading it, I’m selling my nearest-dated calls, including some January 2013 $30s that I have losses on, but also some with big gains. I’m holding the longest-dated strike price calls steady because they have less time risk. Selling about 1/10 of my common stock too on this morning’s pop, after having bought more of it just yesterday as noted.

Cody Willard writes Revolution Investing for MarketWatch and posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com. At time of publication, Cody was net long Apple, Google, Broadcom, Facebook and net short Microsoft. Follow Cody on Twitter at twitter.com/codywillard.

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Cody Willard

Cody Willard

Founder, CEO & Chairman at Wall Street All-Stars, LLC
Cody Willard is the founder of Wall Street All-Stars and the principal of CL Willard Capital. Cody serves as an adjunct professor at Seton Hall University and writes TradingWithCody.com. He was an anchor on the Fox Business Network, where he was the co-host of the long-time #1-rated show on the network, Fox Business Happy Hour. He wrote a monthly investment column for The Financial Times as well as columns for TheStreet.com and was a regular guest on CNBC’s Kudlow & Company from 2004 to 2006. Cody’s stock picking ideas and economic outlooks have been featured on NBC’s The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, ABC’s 20/20, CBS Evening News, CNBC’s SquawkBox, Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show, as well as in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and many other outlets.
Cody Willard
Cody Willard

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