Get Mental Diary Sep 10 – 21, 2012

Recent breakouts hanging in well. BIIB and FLS trade constructively so far. We trimmed a bit more of RYL, just to trade around it.

I added a little FIVE on the dip this morning for a daytrade bounce candidate (long FIVE)

Visa is looking good today, very near new highs. Recent breakout candidates FLS still looks good, and BIIB showing positive trading action as well. I am initiating a new long trade in EXPE. (long BIIB, EXPE, FLS, V)

Taking profits on my FIVE trade. A daytrade is a daytrade. No overnight risk for this one, even though I could see it going higher still and retracing some of today’s gap down.

I am near of RYL $30 target . I will trimming a little here. thanks Jordan.

Nice, @giorgio. I trimmed a little more this morning also. RYL is up nearly 20% since I highlighted it. Not bad. BIIB, FLS, and EXPE still working for us.

Trade update: PNRA seems to be up an awful lot if the only news today is the positive comments out of Cleveland Research. I like PNRA longer-term, and today’s breakout to new highs looks solid. But for a daytrade I am shorting a little. I doubt it can stay up here all day. That said, I would prefer to play it from the long side after a pullback. It’s all about timeframes– (short PNRA)

VIX breaking down near recent lows, down -8.5% right now. Put/call running low for a fifth straight day. Looks like folks confident in the Bernanke put (and the Draghi put) as complacency is increasing. Am I the only one nervous about chasing this?

The bull/bear spread in the AAII survey only rose to +2.5% this week. It’s high of the year is +31%. It will be interesting to see if this QE announcement gets indiv. investors more bullish and the AAII bulls increase next week–

Jordan, I am trimm again in the $30 target on RYL, the Fed aggives us a QE3 (not as aggressive as they say), but it was necessary that the market needed. Now this should continue to benefit stocks. How would we advantage of this suituacion? (stocks) or or you are differently interpreting this.

@giorio: never kick yourself for taking profits. There will always be more trading opportunities. I am a little worried about rising complacency, but with the Bernanke put in full force I think pullbacks can be bought. I will also continue to look for fresh breakouts in stocks with strong fundamentals.

Over in the chat room, Bob is talking about a potential sell signal he is looking for from the II survey this week. I mentioned last week that this one was getting close to its highs for the year. One survey that has already shot to a 14-month high is the Ticker Sense blogger survey. Bulls rocketed to a rare 63% this week. But the one survey that is just not keeping pace with the bullish love fest is the AAII indiv. investor survey. The bull-bear spread there only rose to +4% last week. That’s a very low reading for a market at its highs. Previous bullish readings have been in the range of +30-40%. So bulls in this survey have some catching up to do.

Trade update: A recent trade of ours – PCRX – bounced off its 50-day average today and has rebounded on strong volume. We are staying long this one and expecting new highs in the near future if market holds. (PCRX)

Trade update: Another stock we bought recently for a trade – EXPE – is showing good action and rising on strong volume today. Sticking with this one. We are also still long BIIB but have taken profits on RYL.

I’ve been talking about a long trade in EXPE lately, and today we got the pop I was looking for. EXPE got an upgrade to Buy at DB and was also initiated with a new Buy at Cantor (price target $64). EXPE is up 10% from where I first highlighted it, and we are taking partial profits. (long EXPE)

Jordan, good advices, thanks. At present, the selectivity is very important.

@Giorgio: we’ve been having a good run. But it just goes to show there are always short-term worthwhile trades despite your big picture views

Trade update: I have been talking about a small biotech – PCRX – for a couple weeks now. I recently highlighted its high volume bounce from its 50-day. In three days, the stock has spiked almost 20% from its lows this week. It is right at new highs, but I am going to take some partial profits just to lock something in. I plan to continue to trade around this position. (long PCRX)

A stock that we sold a little too early, in hindsight, is RYL. This one continues to power higher with nary a pullback. But if I still owned some shares I would def be locking in some profits as the short-term chart pattern has turned somewhat parabolic and appears unsustainable.

ISRG is posting an interesting and bullish formation. It has recouped its 50-day and looks poised to close its gap from its July earnings report. I could see this stock trading back to the 540 level in the short-term. But I would not want to hold it overnight on the day of its earnings report. (long ISRG)