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Jay’s “So Money” Trading Diary for January 30, 2012

Here’s the transcript for Jay Somaney’s “So Money” Trading Diary for January 30, 2012. You can find Jay live writing about his trades and chatting it up subscribers five days week at wallstreetallstars.com/somaney.

January 30, 2012 – 9:02 am
GM everyone

January 30, 2012 – 9:03 am
Hi LJ..thx for the data point on ZNGA

January 30, 2012 – 9:03 am
Asian markets got taken apart overnight thanks to continued worries about Greece.

January 30, 2012 – 9:03 am
GM all….

January 30, 2012 – 9:04 am
Hi Charls

January 30, 2012 – 9:05 am
Yeah saw that Jay… There is no way out for them… Only if they force private investors to take a haircut (and not ask politely) will they even stand a chance of survival…..

January 30, 2012 – 9:06 am
IBN down today 2.5%… a breather Jay or something more serious?

January 30, 2012 – 9:06 am
Thats where the problem is Charls, private investors are playing hardball and rightly so

January 30, 2012 – 9:09 am
gm jay looking to buy some calls in apple would you go out until jan 2013 or something a little shorter thanks

January 30, 2012 – 9:10 am
Charls, IBN numbers will be out tomorrow.  I think numbers will be better than expected but questions remain about non-performing assets.  I am not concerned that about NPA’s.  (should come in lower than a year ago).

January 30, 2012 – 9:11 am
GC..i think your time frame is perfect.  I would still scale in not go all in.

January 30, 2012 – 9:22 am
Cheers Jay… Do you expect a pop or flat line at all after IBN ER. I’m long either way. ;0)

January 30, 2012 – 9:24 am
TGIM!

January 30, 2012 – 9:27 am
I think in the next few months there is at least 15-20% upside in IBN Charls, but once things calm down in global financial markets, I expect IBN to hit at least $60/share

January 30, 2012 – 9:27 am
long ibn leaps, ibn in India

January 30, 2012 – 9:27 am
hey Mitch

January 30, 2012 – 9:30 am
*** I hope your right Jay… ;0)

January 30, 2012 – 9:35 am
Amazing… red board of tech and NFXL rises….. bar stewards!

January 30, 2012 – 9:35 am
incredible indeed Charls

January 30, 2012 – 9:43 am
GM everyone.

January 30, 2012 – 9:43 am
Question on IBN, Jay.  I scaled in to open a position, and have been waiting for a pullback to add.  Would you add here or wait until after ER?

January 30, 2012 – 9:45 am
Just to be safe, Randy, given how er has played out thus far.

January 30, 2012 – 9:51 am
Hang on till after er, Randy

January 30, 2012 – 9:52 am
Love film getting a lot of attention in UK at the mo Jay.. Plus Sky’s entry is getting stronger.

January 30, 2012 – 9:53 am
I just hope it rattles NFLX v.soon, I could do with a miracle about now!

January 30, 2012 – 9:53 am
I was talking about that to a bud of mine over the weekend, Charls.  He said the same thing as well

January 30, 2012 – 9:54 am
AMZN has drawn aline in the sand… Could get interesting this month!

January 30, 2012 – 9:54 am
The thing is this stock seems like teflon at the moment.  Everyone knows they are fudging the numbers but matters not.

January 30, 2012 – 9:55 am
Who’s buying that sh it Jay?

January 30, 2012 – 9:57 am
No idea mate

January 30, 2012 – 9:59 am
I just went long NFLX…fwiw…just a trade for me

January 30, 2012 – 10:00 am
Thanks Mitch

January 30, 2012 – 10:12 am
DAX turning back up

January 30, 2012 – 10:15 am
I am buying the AAPL weeklies here.  (long aapl, calls, leaps)

January 30, 2012 – 10:18 am
You expect a big upswing Jay?

January 30, 2012 – 10:18 am
really?  you think AAPL runs this week?  Strong today I know

January 30, 2012 – 10:19 am
yes, Randy, I am thinking in a wek tape, AAPL up, it should have a good week.

January 30, 2012 – 10:19 am
on the AMZN report tomorrow.  Do you expect a 5% move either way Jay? (or higher %)

January 30, 2012 – 10:19 am
You thinking 500′s Jay?

January 30, 2012 – 10:21 am
No Charls, closer to ITM

January 30, 2012 – 10:21 am
Yes, Randy at least 5%

January 30, 2012 – 10:23 am
looking at a strangle trade on AMZN based on 5% above and below 190

January 30, 2012 – 10:23 am
Not sure, I want to go into AMZN only long, Randy but have not hedged anything as of yet

January 30, 2012 – 10:24 am
I agree, therefore my thinking on the strangle trade

January 30, 2012 – 10:25 am
agreed Randy

January 30, 2012 – 10:26 am
may join you on AAPL.  Extremely strong so far today

January 30, 2012 – 10:27 am
CTXS battling back now

January 30, 2012 – 10:29 am
trying Randy

January 30, 2012 – 10:31 am
Ballmer must be fuming.  LOL                                                                    http://www.tuaw.com/2012/01/30/ipads-for-madison-wi-schools-purchased-with-microsoft-lawsuit-s/

January 30, 2012 – 10:35 am
looks like sell the news on sify

January 30, 2012 – 10:36 am
like it has been with pretty much any name, GC

January 30, 2012 – 10:39 am
Buying some RIG here…

January 30, 2012 – 10:43 am
thx Mitch

January 30, 2012 – 10:50 am
hey all

January 30, 2012 – 10:50 am
ZNGA looks like it wants to go but I bet underwriters saddled with lot a stock keep a lid on it….

January 30, 2012 – 10:53 am
Hey Matt

January 30, 2012 – 10:53 am
AAPL wants to go this week eh?

January 30, 2012 – 10:54 am
sure looking like that Matt

January 30, 2012 – 10:54 am
thx Mitch

January 30, 2012 – 10:57 am
another NFLX downgrade i see today

January 30, 2012 – 10:58 am
matters not Matt..teflon

January 30, 2012 – 10:59 am
i’m still looking for $150 from NFLX

January 30, 2012 – 11:00 am
Seriously? based on what?

January 30, 2012 – 11:00 am
just my gut

January 30, 2012 – 11:01 am
It will probably get there Jay… nightmare

January 30, 2012 – 11:02 am
ok Matt

January 30, 2012 – 11:02 am
fingers crossed here i went long after er

January 30, 2012 – 11:02 am
sure looks that way, Charls

January 30, 2012 – 11:15 am
@jay – you think STK drops after their ER?

January 30, 2012 – 11:17 am
hi, Jay. GOOG has been hanging tough recently, plan to add any time soon?

January 30, 2012 – 11:18 am
JH, the stock has had a good run, up almost 20% in the last few weeks.  Given what we have seen thus far, unless its a blow out, I am sticking with the sell-the-news assumption.

January 30, 2012 – 11:18 am
Hi nSavio, bought the AAPL weeklies this morning but have not added to GOOG as yet.  Will keep you all posted.

January 30, 2012 – 11:19 am
I am taking a NFLX weekly flier here as well (long nflx calls, puts)

January 30, 2012 – 11:20 am
you think both NFLX and AAPL will trade higher this week even with the given ugly market?

January 30, 2012 – 11:21 am
AAPL is acting really well this morning Savio, NFLX is just a flier

January 30, 2012 – 11:22 am
@jay – got Jun P’s on RVBD, think they stay down or climb a bit the next 1-2 mths

January 30, 2012 – 11:22 am
The bet there is once Europe closes, our markets will bounce

January 30, 2012 – 11:22 am
JH, I think it bounces.  If you got in with Cody, I would ring the register

January 30, 2012 – 11:23 am
jay your thoughts on BIDU and er for them tonite?

January 30, 2012 – 11:23 am
CTXS positive

January 30, 2012 – 11:23 am
(long ctxs calls)

January 30, 2012 – 11:24 am
seems like tech is trying to turn green here

January 30, 2012 – 11:25 am
nice reversal by VMW

January 30, 2012 – 11:26 am
NUAN and GRPN now green as well

January 30, 2012 – 11:27 am
BIDU needs a beat otherwise if numbers are in-line, the shares could be hit hard.  I am a bit worried about the Chinese government interference and increased oversight on internet companies in China.

January 30, 2012 – 11:29 am
looking good Randy

January 30, 2012 – 11:30 am
feels like the market may come back from here, just nibbled on an SPX weekly for a trade

January 30, 2012 – 11:31 am
I think if FB S1 is good when they file on Wednesday, we will see another day like we had on Friday.  A rising tide will lift all boats sort of day.

January 30, 2012 – 11:31 am
SPX puts Randy?

January 30, 2012 – 11:32 am
Oh nvm..come back as in recover..gotcha..my bad

January 30, 2012 – 11:32 am
calls

January 30, 2012 – 11:33 am
odds favor a very good S1 from FB IMO

January 30, 2012 – 11:33 am
gotcha Randy

January 30, 2012 – 11:33 am
gotcha Randy

January 30, 2012 – 11:36 am
agreed Randy on FB

January 30, 2012 – 11:37 am
just came across this article – this bodes well for AMZN (kindle fire) http://www.fastcompany.com/1809535/tablet-users-spend-50-more-per-purchase-than-smartphone-owners

January 30, 2012 – 11:41 am
good article, KH, thanks

January 30, 2012 – 11:53 am
JH, BIDU has run up 10% in the last couple of trading days, so be careful of a sell the news reaction there as well

January 30, 2012 – 12:07 pm
Indian markets got taken apart today with the Sensex off by 371 points and the NIfty giving back 117 points.  Most of the sell-off was attributed to the uncertainty in Europe.  Now its Portugal that may need a second bailout ala Greece.  Not a good situation across the pond.

January 30, 2012 – 12:14 pm
hey Jay, no one talking about fio today, would this be a good point to add more?

January 30, 2012 – 12:17 pm
Just got through reading the Stifel report from this am on AMZN.  The analyst, Jordan Rohan, is pretty positive on the stock although he expects Fire to affect margins adversely.  This is very much baked in at current levels given the fact that the shares have done nada since Q3 earnings disappointment.  He also says that he thinks AMZN will unviel a new subscription service for its collection of TV shows and movies.  Should be a good report.

January 30, 2012 – 12:17 pm
AAPL at HODs (long aapl, calls, leaps, weeklies)

January 30, 2012 – 12:19 pm
(long amzn, calls, leaps)

January 30, 2012 – 12:23 pm
A must read for those of you that have daughters.                                      http://www.fromdatestodiapers.com/50-rules-for-dads-of-daughters

January 30, 2012 – 12:28 pm
thanks Jay – will you be hedging your position going into earnings?

January 30, 2012 – 12:29 pm
I have not made up my mind yet K.. buy I am leaning towards staying long only, given the severe underperformance of the shares since Q3 earnings.  Thoughts, KH?  Anyone else?

January 30, 2012 – 12:30 pm
Jay great article I have two young daughters. They forgot about rule #51. Never ever be long NFLX stock!

January 30, 2012 – 12:30 pm
Thinking of going long only as well. The bar is set pretty low.

January 30, 2012 – 12:30 pm
lol Munah

January 30, 2012 – 12:30 pm
Thats how I am looking at it as well KH

January 30, 2012 – 12:33 pm
jay thoughts on buying more fio in here?

January 30, 2012 – 12:36 pm
I like it down here  Munah but the only things concerns me a bit is the declining margins due to increased marketing expenses and R&D

January 30, 2012 – 12:43 pm
Their revenue growth was spectacular but GM declines were a bit dismaying despite the valid reasons.

January 30, 2012 – 12:45 pm
Thx Jay will add a little more fio here. It does cost more sometimes to grow and there issues seem like typical growing pains for a growth company. I have a long term perspective on fio.

January 30, 2012 – 12:50 pm
Totally agree.  this FB hoopla could also help once the S1 is out

January 30, 2012 – 1:03 pm
nflx selling off

January 30, 2012 – 1:08 pm
Yes watching it KH

January 30, 2012 – 1:09 pm
For all of you FIO investors/traders.                                                         http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9223780/2012_The_year_storage_becomes_a_celebrity?taxonomyId=19&pageNumber=1

January 30, 2012 – 1:09 pm
long fio, calls

January 30, 2012 – 1:29 pm
are you long OCZ also, Jay?

January 30, 2012 – 1:30 pm
Yes, Savio, I have been long ocz since august-sep of 2010

January 30, 2012 – 1:31 pm
you think OCZ is in better position than FIO?

January 30, 2012 – 1:33 pm
well, not really but certainly cheaper than the latter especially if you look at current estimates for FY ending Feb 13

January 30, 2012 – 1:35 pm
SPY and DIA at HODs

January 30, 2012 – 1:38 pm
Ravi says that if markets cooperate, AAPL to $456 today.  Passing it on

January 30, 2012 – 1:39 pm
good call on AAPL today Jay

January 30, 2012 – 1:39 pm
thx bud

January 30, 2012 – 1:40 pm
SPX cooperating for me right now

January 30, 2012 – 1:41 pm
you long there Randy?

January 30, 2012 – 1:42 pm
yes, on some weekly’s I nibbled on earlier today for a short trade

January 30, 2012 – 1:43 pm
how long you holding your AAPL weeklies for jay?

January 30, 2012 – 1:43 pm
UH OH…somebody is buying…..

January 30, 2012 – 1:45 pm
Randy probably for the next couple of days.  My weeklies are ITM

January 30, 2012 – 2:23 pm
Hey Jay. Thoughts on CY?

January 30, 2012 – 2:32 pm
Hey ML

January 30, 2012 – 2:36 pm
I think CY is good for a $4-$5 move higher if markets cooperate.

January 30, 2012 – 2:36 pm
no positions

January 30, 2012 – 2:43 pm
Futs pressing higher…powerful and impressive

January 30, 2012 – 2:45 pm
very much so Mitch

January 30, 2012 – 2:56 pm
jay when you get into facebook ipo will it be an investment or trade?

January 30, 2012 – 2:57 pm
GC..depends on allocation and where it open..retail buyers are going to be all over FB..if its a small allocation will flip it (more than likely based on the hype, it would be hard to imagine a meaningful allocation)

January 30, 2012 – 2:59 pm
On GRPN I had asked for 50k shares, I got 5k.  I dont think I would even get that amount with FB unless the S1 lays an egg on Wednesday.  (long grpn calls)

January 30, 2012 – 3:07 pm
thanks

January 30, 2012 – 3:07 pm
anytime GC

January 30, 2012 – 3:19 pm
anyone have any feelings on MSFT? I’m feeling its at/near full valuation, and I’ve got a 20% gain…any ideas for a swap?

January 30, 2012 – 3:22 pm
CSTR getting its groove back

January 30, 2012 – 3:27 pm
thx Matt

January 30, 2012 – 3:35 pm

January 30, 2012 – 3:35 pm
Kim, ORCL for Softee?

January 30, 2012 – 3:39 pm
that is a eye opener valued at what these proven companies are. do not get all this hype for i have friends or play some games and post pictures hard to figure or next bubble

January 30, 2012 – 3:40 pm
totally agree GC

January 30, 2012 – 3:41 pm
okay, tell me what you  all think.  Will FB valuation signal a top for social media sites or light a fire under the entire internet sector?

January 30, 2012 – 3:41 pm
Added to a few longs but really just sat on my hands most of the day…

January 30, 2012 – 3:47 pm
hard to say but what i see from family and friends as long as kids keep getting smartphones (have better phones than me) turn into teenagers and young adults i think it may keep going and get bigger

January 30, 2012 – 3:49 pm
ok GC so you think its lights a fire under the nets?

January 30, 2012 – 3:49 pm
thx Mitch, yes pretty quiet for me as well but it usually is

January 30, 2012 – 3:50 pm
@jay: you think after ORCL’s last qtr, they’re on track?

January 30, 2012 – 3:51 pm
yes but i think it cools off once the hype dies down

January 30, 2012 – 3:53 pm
Kim, the shares are almost back up to where they were prior to last quarters earnings report and the bar has been lowered

January 30, 2012 – 3:56 pm
true, it has filled the  gap down. thanks, I’ll check it out.

January 30, 2012 – 3:56 pm
anytime Kim

January 30, 2012 – 4:01 pm
question how many people in 35-60 year age group just look up friends or post pictures dose anyone ever look at the adds or play the games in this age group enough to keep the rates where they are now i think it lasts but teenagers and 20 somethings are there targets and is that enough to justify that valuation

January 30, 2012 – 4:02 pm
GC I only use it for the friends stuff..never tried any games or anything else on there

January 30, 2012 – 4:04 pm
@jay: @golfcar101:  I asked my brother and one of my best girlfriends (both 31) if they ever look at the ads or play the games on FB. both were a NO.

January 30, 2012 – 4:05 pm
my daughter says the same thing as well

January 30, 2012 – 4:05 pm
I guarantee my parents and their friends on there dont look at ads or play games, they’re doing good just to know how to post pictures, imo!

January 30, 2012 – 4:06 pm
lol kim

January 30, 2012 – 4:09 pm
i just do not see it as a google or apple which offer products or services so to me not an investment but who knows strange things happen in this market but a good trade

January 30, 2012 – 4:11 pm
FB just offered me $50 free dollars to advertise. Are they seeing a negative trend or is this just their standard operating procedure?

January 30, 2012 – 4:12 pm
agreed GC

January 30, 2012 – 4:12 pm
Scotty, I have seen those offers from FB from time to time

January 30, 2012 – 4:14 pm
if they want to give it away has to make me wonder

January 30, 2012 – 4:26 pm
something wrong with BIDU delaying ER due to Chinese New Year.  (did they not the Chinese New Year last year-lol)

January 30, 2012 – 4:53 pm
gn everyone

January 30, 2012 – 4:54 pm
gn GC

January 30, 2012 – 4:54 pm
GN everyome
About Jay Somaney

Jay Somaney is a partner and fund manager with TSG Capital Partners, a hedge fund based in Plano, Texas, runs Jay’s “So Money” Trading Diary on WallStreetAllStars.com and is founder of GlobalTechStocks.com, a subscription site that focuses on technology and Indian stocks (including ADRs), providing information, news and chatter. Previously, Somaney worked at TSG Tech Fund, a hedge fund focused on the shares of companies involved in the Internet and related technology. Prior to that, Somaney worked on the sell side as a tech and telecom analyst. Before that, he was a fund manager and partner with SMS International, a hedge fund specializing in tech investments in the Far East (non-Japan). Somaney holds a master’s in business administration from the University of Texas.

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