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My Gut Feeling for Today, Feb 15, 2012

The markets slogged around in the red for most of the day yesterday but closed with a flurry to close mixed with some indexes in the red and some in the green by the closing bell. Rumors of positive developmentD out of Greece likely spurred the closing rush to buy. All told it was another inside day.

We have derivative expiration on Friday, so look out for some options related activity. I would note however, with the S&P 500 (SPX) resting right at 1,350, the pressure to flatten out the next two trading days will be great. The premium on a 1,350 SPX straddle set to expire on Friday’s open is about 1%. The way the market has traded as of late, buying that straddle could be a waste of capital. That is what happens when volatility contracts. Then again, the contrarian in me says we could get a big market move between now and Friday’s opening. If I had to pick, I would say flip a coin and pick heads or tails. Better yet, just pick some quality stocks and don’t get sidetracked by the overall market and expiration.

Another of the Internet Bubble: The Next Generation companies will report today, Zillow (Z). This comes a day after Zynga (ZYNG) reported its results for the first time as a public company. While it appears that results were better than expected the stock got sold after hours. Of course, that could be misdirection like we saw from Fossil (FOSL) yesterday, but I highly doubt that. The Next Generation stocks are getting to be crowded longs in the hedge fund community, so watch out if you are playing the momentum game.


Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC was long FOSL— although positions can change at any time.                                                                                                                     


Scott Rothbort is also the publisher of the LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report, a newsletter focusing in on food, restaurant and agricultural stocks. You can subscribe at www.restaurantstox.com 

Chat with Scott all day in “The Finance Professor’s Classroom” with your Platinum subscription to Wall Street All-Stars.

You can email Scott at scottallstars@gmail.com


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