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My Gut Feeling for Today, May 22, 2013

The equity market’s gradual ascent continues. The JP Morgan (JPM) annual meeting resulted in maintaining Jamie Dimon in the positions of CEO and President. Apple’s (AAPL) Tim Cook got grilled by US Senators but all that we heard was what we already knew – if the US reduced its rates then Apple would repatriate cash. Memo to congress: taxes in the US are too high and corporations have been holding their own tea party for years.

My friend and colleague Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity initiated his 2014 price target for the S&P 500 (SPX) at 1,955. Tony is using a 115 operating EPS on the SPX with a 17 multiple. He makes a good case but I am not as quite ebullient for 2014. I am holding back my predictions till this summer.

The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in front of Congress today. It will be over analyzed and over reacted to. I am thinking about watching Judge Judy instead.

Retail earnings week continues and kicks into high gear today as target (TGT), Pac Sun (PSUN), Genesco (GCO), L Brands (LTD), PetSmart (PETM) and Zales (ZLC) all report. PETM is my woulda coulda shoulda stock of the year. I wanted to buy the stock on its early spring pullback but it never got to my buy level. Then after the close, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) will deliver its results. Expect to hear that the personal computer market is shriveling followed by more hollow chatter from Meg Whitman as to how the company is going to refocus itself.

Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF) trades ex-dividend today. That stock had delivered consistently high dividends (roughly 6% annually) for the nearly two years that we have held it. However, the stock price has been disappointing, declining close to 10% over the same period of time. Half of that decline came from foreign exchange. I am going to use COSWF as a source of cash and sell the stock as soon as possible. I am tired of having the Keystone Pipeline project kicked in the groin by the Obama Administration and don’t expect any movement on this issue potentially until after the next Presidential Election.


Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView AssetManagement, LLC was long AAPL and COSWF stock— although positions can change at any time.                                                                                        

Scott Rothbort is also the publisher of the LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report, a newsletter focusing in on food, restaurant and agricultural stocks. You can subscribe at www.restaurantstox.com 

Interact all day with Scott all day in with your Platinum subscription to Wall Street All-Stars.  


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