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My Gut Feeling for Today, May 3, 2012 ($)

As I expected we experienced yet another inside day on Wednesday. The ADP was disappointing but let’s face it; after much repetition, Mr. Market has learned that the ADP report is rather meaningless. Today the weekly jobless claims numbers will be disseminated. This series has been a little disappointing recently. The after that, we will have to wait another day for the Big Daddy of economic releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly labor report.

Earnings reports continued to better estimates with one glaring exception – Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). While the company’s results on the bottom line came in as expected, revenues were light, inventories are growing out of control and guidance was disappointing. Green Mountain is no doubt the disaster du jour. I covered some of my shorts in the after hours’ market and will cover the rest and sell my puts today.

After today’s close LinkedIn (LNKD) will be reporting results. This is likely the last social networking company to report results before Facebook launches its IPO later this month. LinkedIn is expected to earn 9 cents but estimated range from a low of 5 cents to a high of 16 cents.  Forget the expected growth rate of earnings, selling at 100 times next year’s estimates; we are in rarified air of valuation reminiscent of the dotcom boom. This stock is simply too expensive and could be today’s disaster du jour. I been, quite painfully short the stock since the company last reported.

The NY Rangers had a big win in triple overtime for its fans and parent company Madison square Garden (MSG). If however, you want to invest in sports, take a look at Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), a stock I have owned since its IPO. Who said you can’t hold a stock for a long time?

Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView AssetManagement, LLC was long DKS stock  and short GMCR and LNKD stock and long GMCR calls — although positions can change at any time.                                                                                                                     


Scott Rothbort is also the publisher of the LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report, a newsletter focusing in on food, restaurant and agricultural stocks. You can subscribe at www.restaurantstox.com 

Chat with Scott all day in “The Finance Professor’s Classroom” with your Platinum subscription to Wall Street All-Stars.

You can email Scott at scottallstars@gmail.com 

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