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My Gut Feeling for Today, Nov 1, 2011

We went from one of the worst months in history (September 2011) to one of the best (October 2011). The S&P 500 (SPX) gain of 10.77% in October was the best month since December 1999 gain of 11.16%. It was the 8th best month for that index ever since January 1950 (that is a period which covers 742 months). To think that in the first and last days alone in October the index fell around 5% makes the month even more incredible.

Of course that all came to an end when politics trumped pragmatism and the Greek Prime Minister backtracked by calling for a public referendum on the bank bailout for that nation. This was after he went hat in hand to Germany and France for a bailout.

To top it off, the problems at MF Global (MF) seem to have morphed from one of bad trading decisions to potential improprieties. Up to $700 million of client funds that were supposed to be segregated are apparently missing.  I say have the CFTC put Jon Corzine on the rack. When the CFTC is done with him hand him off to the people of the State of New Jersey.

For now, headline Euro risk is going to put fear back into the minds of investors and take the US economic and earnings data points off the front pages. Too bad, because the latter was shaping up as fuel for the 4th quarter to be quite positive. Still, don’t forget that today at 10AM we October ISM and at 3PM we get auto sales. Tomorrow is the ADP report and the FOMC rate decision. Rumors of QEIII are beginning to circulate now that Papandreou has punted. Finally, Friday is the October BLS Labor report. Smattered amongst everything are some earnings reports.

Expect a horrible open with some attempt at a bounce. Do not rule out more talk out of Europe from Greece, Germany or France. Those are always market movers.

Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC had no positions in stock mentioned — although positions can change at any time. You can email Scott at scottallstars@gmail.com

You can email Scott at scottallstars@gmail.com

 

Scott Rothbort is also the publisher of the LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report, a newsletter focusing in on food, restaurant and agricultural stocks. You can subscribe at www.restaurantstox.com 

 

Editor’s note: Scott Rothbort’s Daily “Gut Feeling” Commentary is currently part of Wall Street All-Stars free content. In a few weeks this “Gut Feeling” will become premium content for exclusive Platinum Member access.

 

 

 

 

 

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