My Gut Feeling for Today, October 22, 2012 ($)

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It was a tough day for the markets on Friday. Some say it was earnings. Others say it was the 25^th anniversary of the 1987 crash. I say that there is a good possibility that it was a one day blunder and will have no linkage to how the markets trade today.

Just as a matter of stock market trivia, the 19^th of October has not been market friendly for the last few years. I think it is one of those self-fulfilling prophesy types of trading days:

2006 +0.08%

2007 -2.56%

2008 N/A – weekend (I bet it would have been a real lousy day – the first three weeks of Oct 2008 were down 18.12%)

2009 +0.94%

2010 -1.59%

2011 -1.26%

2012 -1.66%

Earnings will really hit a fevered pitch this week with Apple (AAPL) batting in the clean-up spot on Thursday after the market closes. Given how that stock has traded, expectations are quite low for that tech company. I went to my local Apple store on this weekend. It was busy as always. I think that the rumor of iPhone 4s models still selling well with preference over the iPhone 5 is just plain false. Forget that notion. According to what I was told, very few 4ses are moving out the door. There are no 32-gig iPhone 5 models in stock; so instead of losing a sale, the sales people just tell you to order it online. Hence, I did not get my 5 that day.

I came into the month fully expecting some weakness or sideways action. For the month, the S&P 500 (SPX) is only off about ½%. It is the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) that because of AAPL and Google (GOOG) is off over 4% for the month. The problem is that too many people pray at the altar of the NASDAQ and don’t respect the SPX for what it is – an index that is more representative of investor, corporate and national wealth. In the final analysis, October is shaping up pretty much as I expected and it usually does.

All of the above is noise. These are all under-card bouts for what is the main event on November 6. To me that could be a make-it or beak-it for the markets. I have moved my odds on the election now to 2-1 against Romney. Weekend polls could move the race even closer.

I raised my cash position to 5% on Friday but see no urgency to put that to work until the election is settled.

Disclosure: At the time of this commentary Scott Rothbort, his family and/or clients of LakeView AssetManagement, LLC was AAPL and GOOG stock and calls — although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort is also the publisher of the LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report, a newsletter focusing in on food, restaurant and agricultural stocks. You can subscribe at www.restaurantstox.com

Chat with Scott all day in “The Finance Professor’s Classroom” with your Platinum subscription to Wall Street All-Stars.

You can email Scott at scottallstars@gmail.com

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Scott Rothbort

Scott Rothbort has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. He is the Founder and President of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, www.lakeviewasset.com a Registered Investment Advisor specializing in customized separate account management for high net worth individuals. In addition, he is the founder of TheFinanceProfessor.com www.thefinanceprofessor.com an educational social networking site where his blog also resides; and, publisher of The LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report www.restaurantstox.com , a newsletter focusing on investment and trading ideas in the food, restaurant and agricultural sectors. Mr. Rothbort is also a Term Professor of Finance at Seton Hall University’s Stillman School of Business, where he teaches courses in finance and economics; is the Chief Market Strategist for The Stillman School of Business; and, the co-supervisor of the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis. Feel free to reach out to Scott Rothbort by email at scott@lakeviewasset.com