Platinum Chat for February 22, 2012

a deteriorating macro and micro would bring out sellers. dont look now but company insiders are selling like crazy. and hedgies are a notoriously fickle bunch!

II sentiment indicator positive for rally as bulls faded after a nice week. looks like strong season thrust will have to really spike to new highs to draw everyone in. If we dont get a sentiment sell signal, i will have to give the rally the benefit of the doubt.

Mr Marcin, did you happen to read the Barrons cover on HPQ this weekend?

This is from Doug Kass : The retail investor took out money from domestic equity funds in 32 of the past 34 weeks in 2011 — more than $100 billion came out in the full year. Since 2007, individual investors took out over $425 billion from domestic equity mutual funds and put in about $850 billion into low- or no-yielding fixed income. That swing of $1.275 trillion is unprecedented in its scope.

Also sonnyblue, watch what happens when economy improves, rates continue to tick up, and those “safe” bonds lose 10% in the blink of an eye–people will either put it under mattress at that point or come back into equities.

hpq article so-so. fed promoting the biggest bubble ever, the bond bubble dwarfing the tech and housing bubble. people being forced into bonds for yield scraps. the system will collapse when interest rates rise 300bps. oecd is japan until they become greece.

at the top one always hears there are no sellers left.

@robert: thoughts on the miners, ie FCX, VALE?

Here is the agenda for the Colloquium at Seton Hall that I mentioned in invitation to Meet the Finance Professor http://wallstreetallstars.com/meet-the-professor-seton-hall-university/

no opinion of miners in here. flat space

Is there some way to short the fixed income spike like through Eurodollar futures rather than using bonds (which have more price risk)?

@Robohogs: Eurodollar futures are only 3 months contracts. Not the way to play the long end of the curve.