Platinum Chat Room

bondxprt

Jason

rhino31

sonnyblue

Gary

sonnyblue

April 16, 2012 - 9:54 am

@Bob, STX is breaking out on Barron's article. But it seems AAPL continuing drop will kill it.

Jason

April 16, 2012 - 11:10 am

@sonnyblue: interesting read

robert

April 16, 2012 - 11:22 am

it feels as if we have entered a "sell the rally" mode, but this is far from certain. many stock charts are broken, but nowhere near oversold enough to play the bounce. the global macro is fading, yet the u.s. macro is still decent. estimates are rolling over for u.s. companies, but profits and more importantly, free cash flows are still healthy. it makes for a difficult environ in which to time equtiy markets. yet, my plan is to stick with the seasonal bias and fade the rallies with the intention of repurchasing shares in late summer/fall at better prices. i will probably even leet out some shorts if downtrend gets more established. i think many investors are weak holders and will sell down.

robert

April 16, 2012 - 11:25 am

re seagate story, no news. stock will depend on info from conference call tomorrow eve. hopefully mgt left enough on the table to beat and raise. note that the repurcahse has really ramped up in last week as stx fills the 25% share reduction order they have had on the desk this year. that's a big deal many underappreciate.

sonnyblue

April 16, 2012 - 11:36 am

@Bob, have you looked at NOK? Is that one a value trap? I'm seeing that AAPL & GOOG will take all Techs down with them.

AlanHHI

April 16, 2012 - 11:38 am

@robert: Can you please tell us what you are looking for from STX Tuesday evening? Yahoo finance shows EPS/ Rev. estimates of $2.11/ 4.38B. Do those numbers seem right to you?

sonnyblue

April 16, 2012 - 11:42 am

@Alan: I'm pretty sure STX will beat Q1 estimate. But the key thing is what guidance will be? The market is worried that prices will erode due to more supplies come online soon. And what's about demand? SNDK warnings freaked everyone out 2 weeks ago.

robert

April 16, 2012 - 11:50 am

i have little insight into stx quarter. i think they can do a little better than street ests from better margins. revenue probably in line. outlook prob in line. remember, they guided aggressively for the entire year and this freed them up from the preannouncement issues. stx is NOT a trade on a nickle beat or miss, but rather a secular change in hdd competitve dynamics and huge free cash flow/dividends that follow. stx is an investment on a $2 divdend next year in a yield starved environment.

AlanHHI

April 16, 2012 - 11:53 am

Thanks very much, Robert, that put's it perspective for me. Personally, I'm likely to bank some of today's run up and try to buy back in cheaper over the next few months. If STX announces a dividend increase or major buyback today, I'll lose and buy back in higher.

AlanHHI

April 16, 2012 - 11:53 am

Thanks again for the original STX call and the continuing follow up.

sonnyblue

April 16, 2012 - 12:55 pm

It's interesting to note that GOOG + AAPL are down big while MSFT+INTC+STX are still green. Old Tech over New Tech?

tendency

April 16, 2012 - 2:30 pm

SB was it you calling the top couple weeks back?

sonnyblue

April 16, 2012 - 3:01 pm

@tendency: Top or not, the market has become more healthy now that AAPL corrected down and investors are rotating from "momo" stocks to "value" stock.

Randy

April 16, 2012 - 3:10 pm

AAPL can still be considered a value stock

sonnyblue

April 16, 2012 - 3:20 pm

@Bob: I guess you read this already: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/04/12/seagate-ceo-luczo-on-drives-zettabytes-flash-and-his-tattoo/

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 11:22 am

Looks like the bulls are back, stronger than ever. I bet so many "sold in May (April) and go away" too soon.

robert

April 17, 2012 - 11:31 am

strong day as we follow a powerful european rally. die by the spanish bond auctions, live by em too

robert

April 17, 2012 - 11:34 am

big day for tech with intel and stx tonite. pc market looks much better than bears forecast for initial qtr of 2012. death of the pc my ****....death of wintel my ****...so far at least. and the big windows upgrade cycle is straight ahead.

tendency

April 17, 2012 - 11:35 am

bullish on intel up here robert?

robert

April 17, 2012 - 11:35 am

ibm guided to 1% revenue growth. watch the blathering vidiots on bubblevision breathlessly pump the huge beat with 5%. wow i say to 5%.

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 11:36 am

@Bob: Election year saga - Obama trying to control oil prices = Nixon did the same thing for food prices in 1972.

robert

April 17, 2012 - 11:38 am

wacky, cycle guy nenner picked thursday as his cycle top. will be interesting to see if he got this one right. profits still good, so maybe the rally holds through earnings season. i am still in sell the rally mode rather than buy the rally or even the dips. tho some energy shares have gotten so oversold and cheap i am tempted to added long exposure there.

tendency

April 17, 2012 - 11:39 am

agree 100% robert debating on my sell timing here .. seems prudent to hold tech names one more day through intel/stx reports tonite?

Mitchm

April 17, 2012 - 11:39 am

1429 was his target on the S&P I believe...

jay

April 17, 2012 - 11:40 am

matt dont forget Big Blue as well

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 11:42 am

According to my Chinese astrologist friend, this year's pattern won't repeat like what we saw in 2010 and 2011. So don't go away in May. lol.

robert

April 17, 2012 - 11:42 am

goldman says intel missed. they have been awful on pc related stocks, including intel. i think numbers are good. if one is a buy high and sell higher, intel is still a very cheap stock with a fat yield and strong revenue growth, tho not this quarter from hdd shortage. 12 months ago around $21 i wrote intel was the perfect stock. cheap, big div, double digit rev growth and serious competitive advantage in process technology. it's up a bunch since then, but not overvalued. i rarely buy the 52 week high list. i buy the bear markets.

robert

April 17, 2012 - 11:43 am

ibm guided to 1% revenue growth so 3-5% reperesents big beat...bfd.

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 11:45 am

@Bob: Key to Intel future earning is Windows 8 and servers+cloud buildout.

tendency

April 17, 2012 - 11:48 am

thx robert

rhino31

April 17, 2012 - 12:38 pm

Agree with Bob re large cap energy. I added CVX yesterday and TOT last week. Tempted on BHI and SLB, but drillers have been charnel house. Will wait for earnings from BHI.

rhino31

April 17, 2012 - 12:45 pm

Added RDS/A as well

AlanHHI

April 17, 2012 - 3:58 pm

STX is selling off like they are going to miss and someone knows about it. I have no idea whether either of those is true. Hopefully, I'm all wet and they'll beat on everything.

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 3:58 pm

Too many longs in STX. Too many calls open interest.

AlanHHI

April 17, 2012 - 4:00 pm

@sonnyblue: Does that mean that the STX price reaction for earnings will be disappointing regardless of how they do?

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 4:04 pm

Earn 2.64 vs. 2.1

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 4:05 pm

Rev: 4.45B vs. 4.36B

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 4:05 pm

not bad at all

AlanHHI

April 17, 2012 - 4:05 pm

Where is the report? I can't find it on their site?

AlanHHI

April 17, 2012 - 4:07 pm

Got it from Yahoo finance, thx

AlanHHI

April 17, 2012 - 4:11 pm

@sonnyblue: There is no mention of buybacks in the ER and the divvy holds at $0.25 per quarter. Personally, I'll wait for the CC before I buy back any stock I sold yesterday for $28.40

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 4:13 pm

Big buyback already happened 2 weeks ago. You can check STX website, I think.

sonnyblue

April 17, 2012 - 4:34 pm

@Bob: This means STX can earn $10 this year. Ridiculously cheap!

robert

April 17, 2012 - 5:15 pm

Stx gross margins excellent. inho, it makes normalized eps much higher than consensus forecasts. As long as the new duopoly works as a duopoly should.

robert

April 17, 2012 - 5:17 pm

Intel numbers fine. Market spooked by drop in gross margins in q2. Its because they are ramping 3 new state of the art fabs this Q. Intc is expanding its technological lead and it costs 200bps in the fat part of the ramp. BFD. Get over it, thats what world class companies do.

robert

April 17, 2012 - 5:19 pm

IBM couldnt even beat a 1% revenue growth guide. Ouch. I continue to think 14x's est is a fair price for low single digit revenue growth, even w decent cash flow.

AlanHHI

April 18, 2012 - 9:33 am

@robert: I heard on TV this morning that Goldman think that STX gross margins have topped. I have two questions for you on that: 1. Do you agree, and 2. Even if that's true, will earnings and return of cash to shareholders be enough for earnings to keep piling up?

scott

April 18, 2012 - 9:38 am

Bob - once again great call on STX (long)

jay

April 18, 2012 - 9:41 am

ditto that Bob

tendency

April 18, 2012 - 9:46 am

i rue the day i did not take bob's advice on STX - i shall not make the same mistake twice!

Randy

April 18, 2012 - 9:46 am

tripple that, lol

AlanHHI

April 18, 2012 - 9:55 am

On the other side, I was fortunate enough to take Bob's advice and I thank you again Bob for making such a strong case for it in January.

sonnyblue

April 18, 2012 - 10:08 am

very hard to trade around STX... just look at option volume... Buy and hold is best.

AlanHHI

April 18, 2012 - 10:18 am

@sonnyblue: Before earnings there were several opportunities to trade around STX. It was moving between 26 and 28 and if you could buy and 26 and sell at 28 you could do fairly well. I did this with between 10% and 20% of my core position. Right before earnings I decided to play it safe and sell 1/3 of my core position. Obviously, that last idea has not been rewarded. Fortunately, the 2/3 remaining are doing quite well.

sonnyblue

April 18, 2012 - 10:35 am

I would guess STX will trade in a small range until we work off all these huge volume in option pit. Also, ex-dividend date is May 2, so we may not go down much till then.

golfcar101

April 18, 2012 - 10:40 am

x3 on stx in around19

golfcar101

April 18, 2012 - 10:44 am

x3 on stx

golfcar101

April 18, 2012 - 10:46 am

sorry for double having refreshing problems

robert

April 18, 2012 - 11:29 am

so stx margins were excellent, asp's good, and business is fine. the morons on the street who missed the trade are all whining about peak margins. they are right about that and wrong about the stock. with 37% gross margins and a new duopoly, stx should be able to hold them in the 26-30% range going forward. and that means $7+ in normalized eps and a $2+ dividend en route. if that is in a $29 stock, i will eat one of their new hybrid drives. the jpm guy who downgraded the stock at $11 did so at 1x's this year profit. fool

robert

April 18, 2012 - 11:30 am

i have not sold a share of stx and dont intend to, even as i prepare for a correction. $50 is where i would think about harvesting profits.

robert

April 18, 2012 - 11:32 am

take a look at hal, i own it small and mentioned it here last week. its no stx, but its very cheap and if nat gas ever recovers it can be a big stock.

davidoosnk

April 18, 2012 - 11:36 am

Robert thx for STX it has been a cash printing machine for me...

davidoosnk

April 18, 2012 - 11:37 am

Over on the Cody board there is talk of STX technology becoming anachronistic at some point with flash like FIO etc taking over. Do you have a certain timeframe/date where we should start being more careful about STX? Or will they ultimately just get taken private or bought out in your opinion?

AlanHHI

April 18, 2012 - 11:38 am

@robert: Thanks very much for the advice on both STX and HAL. I've got my own energy covered with LINE and VNR and I'll be enjoying the run up in nat gas that way, assuming it ever happens. Otherwise, I'd be looking hard at HAL right now.

robert

April 18, 2012 - 11:43 am

i am selling some more today after watching cnbc yesterday. they brought out a bunch of perma bulls and the arrogance was tangible. even the reporters are spinning everything so hard bullish that it feels like a merry-go-round. we have to be getting close to a more serious move down. the elevator has arrived. all of the shorts are frustrated and have covered expecting another run, and that should not happen.

sonnyblue

April 18, 2012 - 11:46 am

@David: Cody is wrong on short WDC and on the idea that Flash memory will take over HDD. Read Forbes interview with STX CEO. Luczo states "There is no amount of flash that can even address one tenth of one percent of that" To replace HDDS, flash must make $500 billion investments in new fabs. A new flash fab costs $10 B. To go from the current 400 exabytes of storage to 1,000 exabytes, the drive firms would have to invest $2 B/year, while the flash manufacturers would have to invest $50 B/year. Google & Facebook & many would never buy flash at a cost of 10 times HDD.

Mitchm

April 18, 2012 - 11:46 am

Sell Sell Sell! Robert post when you actually add some short exposure and what sectors. thanks in advance.

davidoosnk

April 18, 2012 - 11:56 am

@Sonny... thx... read that article too.. BTW are u a tech savvy person? I'm not. Would be nice to get some techies to analyze Luczo's take on all that... Yes I didn't like the WDC call by Cody either. Did not make sense as a pairs trade given the consolidation in the industry.

sonnyblue

April 18, 2012 - 12:05 pm

@David: the key is the big cost difference between Flash and HDD. One would cost you $1 and the other $10. For mobile devices, it's a must to have flash. But at cloud application level - like Netflix or Amazon, you would not need flash (the network is too slow anyway) but you would need huge amount of storage...

davidoosnk

April 18, 2012 - 12:08 pm

@sonny Got it. Best non tech speak common sense translation/explanation I have heard for this!

thank you!

robert

April 18, 2012 - 1:05 pm

that said, my favorite timing indicator the II sentiment survey is now decidely neutral.

zum

April 18, 2012 - 3:11 pm

@robert: If you are going to hold STX to $50, are you looking into WDC as well?

jjss

April 18, 2012 - 3:17 pm

@robert: Can you tell me what you meant by "April 18, 2012 - 11:43 am. i am selling some more today after watching cnbc yesterday"? Can you give us an idea of what are you selling? Certainly not STX, HAL, or INTC!

sonnyblue

April 18, 2012 - 4:06 pm

QCOM got killed. Mobile/Smart phone saturation point is here already.

AlanHHI

April 18, 2012 - 4:54 pm

@sonnyblue: I don't own QCOM and I don't know much about it. The article I just saw said that the earnings/ rev beat but the guidance was soft. If that's true, I don't think it necessarily follows that Mobile/ smartphone is saturated; more like too much/ too fast for QCOM. I guess we'll get a much better idea after AAPL reports

sonnyblue

April 18, 2012 - 10:48 pm

Wireless saturation is already here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-18/u-s-wireless-seen-contracting-after-iphone-binge-tech.html

robert

April 18, 2012 - 11:45 pm

trimming some winners in mite, also looking at laying out some shorts in small/mid cap indices as well as some secotr etfs and high p/e stocks .

robert

April 18, 2012 - 11:46 pm

stx, int and hal too cheap to sell. maintaining all positions there, tho hal is only starter size.

sonnyblue

April 19, 2012 - 9:49 am

@Bob: do you trust all these banks' earning reports like MS, BAC, GS, C? there is no way any analyst would know for sure what is on these banks BS. It's like $100 trillion black hole.

AlanHHI

April 19, 2012 - 10:01 am

@robert: if stx, int and hal are too cheap to sell, or all or any of them cheap enough to buy. If stx is heading to $50 with a $2 dividend I would guess it's still cheap enough to buy, what about the other two. Thanks as always.

sonnyblue

April 19, 2012 - 10:31 am

Trading method: one of the ways that company like STX buying its stocks back is to sell out of the money puts. This was how Cisco used to do in the 90s when I was working there

robert

April 19, 2012 - 10:43 am

i rarely buy a bank. dont trust bank balance sheets or bankers. entire economy overlevered, debt must shrink.

sonnyblue

April 19, 2012 - 10:50 am

@Bob: from QCOM conference call, they seem to have problems with low yields & capacity shortage from their fabs. They hope the new 28nn fabs will help to increase output. Intel already moves to 22nn fabs & 3D design. Intel's chip manufacturing advance is away ahead of everyone. Ultrabooks & tablets with Win 8 will be key to Intel 2nd-half this year.

robert

April 19, 2012 - 2:16 pm

intel kicking **** and taking names. but it will be a battle. arm has some very good design features that make it work with mobile devices.

tendency

April 19, 2012 - 2:20 pm

prob for me is intel is the M$ of the chipmakers for better or worse

rhino31

April 19, 2012 - 3:12 pm

I sold some 25 INTC on weakness yesterday.

rhino31

April 19, 2012 - 3:13 pm

25 strike puts to open--to clarify

sonnyblue

April 19, 2012 - 3:20 pm

Doug Kass just bought INTC at 27.50, very smart man!

sonnyblue

April 19, 2012 - 4:12 pm

@Bob: MSFT numbers looking good. Old Tech is back!

sonnyblue

April 20, 2012 - 8:25 am

@Bob: SNDK earning & guidance very ugly. Investors need to know the difference between flash memory and HDD. And need to do careful homework before investing. This year seems to be a "stock picker" market.

robert

April 20, 2012 - 11:16 am

bulls not going down without a fight. but we needed more upside from the eps reporting season. next 3 months begins poor seasonals with fading macro and rising geopolitical risks...also while eps surprises are a dime a dozen, year/year revenue growth sucks for most companies. thats usually a sign of the top of the profit cycle. i say sell the rallies.

jeffmiller

April 20, 2012 - 12:48 pm

Nice charts on both II sentiment and AAII sentiment at Dr. Ed: http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/04/stock-market-sentiment.html

scott

April 20, 2012 - 12:54 pm

@jeffmiller: Jeff thanks for bringing this to our attention. It is interesting. Is the implication that we have worked off overbought conditions and are approaching a buy point?

jeffmiller

April 20, 2012 - 12:57 pm

@scott: Bob has been citing II, and noting that it had pulled back. It looks like the middle of the range. AAII is more bullish for contrarians -- which presumably includes all of us here

Yardeni also cites contrarian interpretation, of course.

scott

April 20, 2012 - 12:57 pm

@jeffmiller: II did look middle of the road but moving lower

zum

April 20, 2012 - 12:59 pm

@all: Seems like AAPL is brought down due to option expiration...Anyone adding to AAPL calls for a good setup next week?

scott

April 20, 2012 - 1:14 pm

@zum: considering it - however, with ER on Tuesday, the room for error is small. Also, the vol will come off after ER so you are paying up for vol just for 2 days.

manhattanlad

April 20, 2012 - 2:12 pm

@scott, you don't foresee a bounce back through mon-tues that would be worth it? or do you think momentum is all down from here?

jay

April 20, 2012 - 2:59 pm

ML, the problem is the technicals. With the huge rise, folks seem worried about earnings,guidance, weak mac sales, weak iPhone sales, weak iad sales...pretty much the entire kitchen sink. Hard to predict with any degree of certainty what the stock does on Monday and Tuesday. If anyone can accurately predict that, they would be richer than Midas. Fundamentally, does the stock deserve to be a lot higher. Yes, it does. Sentiment and technicals are entirely a different matter. Hope that helps.

jay

April 20, 2012 - 2:59 pm

oops sorry Savio, didnt see your question ...was on the right

manhattanlad

April 20, 2012 - 3:00 pm

it absolutely helps.

scott

April 20, 2012 - 3:40 pm

@manhattanlad: stock yes. options no

zum

April 23, 2012 - 2:29 am

@scott: Thanks for the info.

robert

April 23, 2012 - 10:58 am

permabid to the rescue today? or new lows and a confirmation of an emerging downtrend? vote P or C and let me know your position. I vote C.

sonnyblue

April 23, 2012 - 11:07 am

@Bob: it's now up to the Fed's language tomorrow. I bet they would jaw-bone the market with future QE if needed, but for now, they would wait for more data. This is not a bad scenario - economy not too weak to QE, but not too strong to tighten. In the meantime, I'm bidding more for WDC. Earnings from STX, INTC, MSFT should pose a good case for WDC.

robert

April 23, 2012 - 11:08 am

sonny, the question was p or c?

AlanHHI

April 23, 2012 - 11:12 am

@robert: Why does it have to be P or C. I'd vote for B; basing for a new uptrend. We dropped to 1,357 on 4/10 and that seems to be holding (though we're getting close).

Randy

April 23, 2012 - 11:12 am

i will vote a not real confident P, Robert

robert

April 23, 2012 - 11:32 am

alan, this market has had very little b in it for a while. too much vol. it wants to overshoot everything. thats why i limited choice to p or c.

sonnyblue

April 23, 2012 - 11:34 am

@Bob: gun to the head, I have to say P, mainly because this is THE election year (sic). But I believe this is also "stock picker" market. Just look at the crash in AAPL and note that MSFT, INTC, STX, WDC are doing okay.

scott

April 23, 2012 - 11:46 am

@sonnyblue: I would hardly consider AAPL's pullback a crash

sonnyblue

April 23, 2012 - 11:50 am

@Scott: Falling from 644 to 556 in 10 days, to me, is a crash, especially it's the largest company in the world. Many retail investors (I know a few) coming late in AAPL would say the same thing.

Randy

April 23, 2012 - 11:50 am

definitely a correction tho, Scott. Over 11%

rhino31

April 23, 2012 - 11:52 am

Bob, is there an H for "honestly don't know?"

sonnyblue

April 23, 2012 - 11:58 am

@Bob: oil stocks are coming back strong from early sell-off. A good sign for the bulls.

golfcar101

April 23, 2012 - 12:07 pm

x2 on rhino vote

rhino31

April 23, 2012 - 12:11 pm

Bought some WMT on this news. Seriously, why do we have a foreign corrupt practices act? How do you think biz gets done in some of these places? How did any of these actions hurt the United States or the shareholders/customers of WMT? Waste of time

scott

April 23, 2012 - 12:12 pm

As I wrote on Friday in the Classroom http://wallstreetallstars.com/classroom/: People are getting way too overwrought on APPL. It has corrected 11%. Last year it had two such corrections. In 2010 also two 10% corrections. It happens. It is normal. One must accept it.

robert

April 23, 2012 - 12:47 pm

i think wmt story done to deflect attention from 60 Minute stories on Lehman collapse and Palastinian Christians. That no one gets prosecuted for Lehman or MFBlobal is a friggin disgrace. Looks like white collar crime is ignored here where in China its punishable by death. I vote for China's solution.

jordan

April 23, 2012 - 12:56 pm

I agree with Scott re: AAPL. Expectations are too high. AAPL needs to spend some time consolidating. I think folks will be disappointed if it doesn't go straight back up. But that doesn't mean the stock is toast. I would prefer to see it put in another nice long base which will set up another leg higher. Patience.

golfcar101

April 23, 2012 - 12:57 pm

@jordan: would you sell some puts here to enter at lower price or pocket prem.

jeffmiller

April 23, 2012 - 2:36 pm

@golfcar101: On a theoretical basis, selling puts in a time of extreme volatility is the cheap bullish strategy, but the stock price is an issue.

golfcar101

April 23, 2012 - 2:39 pm

@jeffmiller: thank you

jeffmiller

April 23, 2012 - 2:39 pm

If you follow the wise rule of only selling puts on stock you are willing to buy at the strike. Suppose you sold this week's expiration for the 555 put at about 13 bucks.

jeffmiller

April 23, 2012 - 2:41 pm

You need to be ready to buy 100 shares. If you follow a rule of keeping any one stock at say, 5%, of your portfolio, this means you need to have a $1 million portfolio to sell one put.

jeffmiller

April 23, 2012 - 2:42 pm

Most people get too big on these positions, as happened in 1987 right after I started at the CBOE. There were trading systems about "free money" from put selling. The rules are much tighter now.

jeffmiller

April 23, 2012 - 2:43 pm

A stock split would make it easier for more people to trade Apple options -- just a thought.

golfcar101

April 23, 2012 - 2:47 pm

@jeffmiller: thanks jeff good advice to go by

sonnyblue

April 23, 2012 - 2:49 pm

@rhino: I bet Whitney Tilson is buying WMT today too.

AlanHHI

April 23, 2012 - 2:55 pm

@jeffmiller: Do you think AAPL wants to make it easier to trade their options, or would they rather tamp down on the trading by picking the share price high?

jeffmiller

April 23, 2012 - 2:58 pm

@AlanHHI: Most companies do not even consider options in thinking about their decisions. I know this from many situations where companies revealed information when stocks were no longer trading, but options were. So I think that would be inferring too much.

rhino31

April 23, 2012 - 2:59 pm

Couldn't agree more with Mr. Miller re selling puts ONLY on stocks AND postition sizes you want and are ABLE to own 100% cash.

jordan

April 23, 2012 - 3:11 pm

@golfcar: I don't really like selling puts. If the stock rockets higher, you've missed the ride

robert

April 23, 2012 - 3:14 pm

One word for Euro macro data today. Disastrous. US investors betting on the decoupling trade with market down only 100 bps.

sonnyblue

April 23, 2012 - 3:34 pm

@Bob: if you are global investors with billions to invest, which equity market you would likely to invest in? US, Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, India, Australia, ... The best dirty shirt is the obvious choice.

robert

April 23, 2012 - 3:58 pm

estonia! 10% debt/gdp, 8% real growth, top 5 global productivity...cheap stock market! US much dirtier than Estonia.

sonnyblue

April 24, 2012 - 9:12 am

AAPL sell-off is way overdone. I'd sell some puts here.

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 11:41 am

@sonnyblue: I agree with you about AAPL sell off. What do you think happens if earnings are beat or miss (two questions)?

robert

April 24, 2012 - 11:58 am

huge day tomorrow. aapl eps report and fed mtg results. if both favorable stocks hold up, maybe rally a bit. if both miss market expectations, watch out below. especially if euro related macro problems in play weds. dont know whether to short or shine my shoes....

sonnyblue

April 24, 2012 - 2:26 pm

@Alan: AAPL will miss earning estimate, that's almost for sure. The question is whether the market has priced it in. That's I don't know, so we should play with options instead of the stock.

jordan

April 24, 2012 - 2:38 pm

@Alan: I bet AAPL makes the number. But I think what's more important will be the trajectory of estimate revisions in the following days. Will they go up as much as they have in recent quarters??

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 2:39 pm

@sonnyblue: Thanks for the advice. We'll know for sure in a couple of hours (AAPL has always released at 4:30, not 4:00).

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 2:45 pm

@jordan: @sonnyblue: My question to both of you, is if the market is pricing in a miss, what happens if they beat, or beat significantly? In addition, what a beat? Is is the 10.06 EPS/ 36.81B First Call numbers or something else? What if earnings/ rev is OK, but iPhone sales miss? We'll know in a couple of hours. Meanwhile, I can't really play with options in my IRA (and I don't know if I would if I could), so I'll just sit and wait

jordan

April 24, 2012 - 3:29 pm

@Alan: put simply, a beat is a beat. But I think north of $10.50 is needed to keep the stock afloat. I don't think iPhone miss in and of itself would crush the stock. Investors will look at the big picture. iPads, Macs, margins, etc.

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 3:37 pm

@jordan: thanks jordan

jordan

April 24, 2012 - 4:31 pm

$12.30! So much for a miss. AAPL topping $580 currently

rhino31

April 24, 2012 - 4:32 pm

Guiding mcch lower

tendency

April 24, 2012 - 4:33 pm

what's the guidance?

sonnyblue

April 24, 2012 - 4:34 pm

wow, AAPL done it again. Amazing numbers.

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 4:34 pm

who cares about the guidance? They always guide way low

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 4:35 pm

@sonnyblue: so why is the stock $60 less then it was 2 weeks ago? I wish I could buy more

rhino31

April 24, 2012 - 4:35 pm

Are you kidding AlanHHI?

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 4:37 pm

@rhino31: not a bit, rhino; at 640 AAPL has a P/E of 14.5 and a 1.5% yield to boot. If I wasn't full up, I'd be buying more right now

AlanHHI

April 24, 2012 - 4:39 pm

Shouldn't there be a huge short squeeze on AAPL after all the rumors about a miss?

jordan

April 24, 2012 - 4:39 pm

@rhino: I can top that. Right now investors will start to look at 2013 estimates. AAPL should easily to $55 in fiscal 2013. That means even at the $595 its trading after hours, the PE is less than 11x.

robert

April 24, 2012 - 4:41 pm

Good numbers from aapl should help stocks, esp tech tomorrow. although i dont get the big revenue beat with only making the iphone ests, and missing ipad and mac unit sales ests. maybe there are too many games being played with ests. stx at new high tomorrow.

rhino31

April 24, 2012 - 4:47 pm

Thanks Jordan--like I said glad to be wrong on my initial take---just hope it lasts through call and on open tomorrow.

Jason

April 24, 2012 - 4:58 pm

@rhino31: will be interesting, will the gap open tmrw, be the top tick for the day? buy when there's blood, sell to trumpets...something like that

sonnyblue

April 24, 2012 - 5:05 pm

@Bob: the more iphones sold, the more cloud storage will be needed.

sonnyblue

April 24, 2012 - 5:08 pm

@Bob: you want to sell pickaxes and blue jeans to gold diggers rather than digging it yourself

scott

April 24, 2012 - 5:19 pm

@AlanHHI: not enough stock short to squeeze. real money will come in.

sonnyblue

April 24, 2012 - 5:45 pm

On Apple: Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%. This time, it beats EPS by 22.5% and revenue by 6.6%.

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 9:06 am

Can someone answer this question? If you buy QQQ today, and Facebook IPO comes out in June, how does that affect your QQQ?

scott

April 25, 2012 - 9:15 am

@sonnyblue: directly it does not because FB will not be a part of the NDX on day 1. INdirectly because there are stocks that will correlate with FB that are in the NDX

robert

April 25, 2012 - 10:08 am

profits are holding up better than i expected, even with a fading global macro from europe to china to brazil. the million dollar question is was that the top? caterpillar sees a lot of reasons to be cautious. the battle for 1400 continues. i still believe a couple big macro events like the fiscal cliff are not being discounted.

Randy

April 25, 2012 - 10:10 am

don't you think that the idiots in Washington are going to be forced to deal with the fiscal cliff issue, Robert?

robert

April 25, 2012 - 10:10 am

stx responding to tech rally. now trading at all time high. i continue to hold every share. i do not kid when i write my price target under fundamentals is $40-50, depending on how negative i become on seasonal correction.

jhudson

April 25, 2012 - 10:11 am

randy - no, bigger can wider road

AlanHHI

April 25, 2012 - 10:11 am

@Randy: I'm with you, Randy, I think that after the election whoever is elected will have enough clout to keep the Congress from destroying us just for spite. I sure hope so.

Randy

April 25, 2012 - 10:12 am

wishfull thinking on our part, Alan, lol

robert

April 25, 2012 - 10:12 am

callling the pols in washington idiots is an insult to idiots worldwide. and they will not deal with cliff til after the election and it will be a nasty political fight.

jhudson

April 25, 2012 - 10:13 am

love it Robert

AlanHHI

April 25, 2012 - 10:15 am

@robert: agree completely on the insult to idiots; i think it will be nasty but not fatal to economy, probably just more can-kicking

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 10:39 am

@Bob: correct me if I'm wrong. STX ex-dividend is Monday, April 30. If you buy STX today, you will settle on Friday therefore you will get the next dividend on Monday. Is that why the stock up today? And tomorrow it will pull back?

AlanHHI

April 25, 2012 - 10:58 am

@sonnyblue: You can buy STX today, tomorrow, Friday or next Monday to get the $0.25 divvy on 5/17. It's hard to credit that with a $1 increase in the STX price today. I would bet that all those iPhones and iPads in China contribute to STX secular growth as a cloud stock.

robert

April 25, 2012 - 11:02 am

correct, 25 cent dividend not important to short term price movement

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 11:14 am

@Alan: not correct. You have to buy today. It takes 3 trading days to settle your trade. Then you would be on record as owner of the stock as of Friday. Monday April 30 is Ex-Dividend date, that means "except" dividend. (click on April 30 to get STX) http://www.thestreet.com/dividends/index.html

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 11:54 am

@Bob: Do you follow Citi Economic Surprised Index? It's amazing that for past 2 years, it peaked in January and crashed down into the summer. Look like the same thing this year: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIUSD:IND/chart

AlanHHI

April 25, 2012 - 12:01 pm

@sonnyblue: From the STX earnings release:

AlanHHI

April 25, 2012 - 12:01 pm

"The Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, which will be payable on May 17, 2012 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 2, 2012."

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 12:03 pm

@Alan: that's not correct date. April 30 is the Ex-div date. Check with your broker.

AlanHHI

April 25, 2012 - 12:04 pm

That's why the ex-div date is 4/30. I was wrong to say you could buy next Monday, but buying any day this week will get you the next divvy.

zum

April 25, 2012 - 12:09 pm

@Robert: AAPL confirmed in their conference call that the hard drive prices are still above pre-flood levels...leads to STX move...

jordan

April 25, 2012 - 1:49 pm

I didn't listen to AAPL's Q&A last night. did anyone ask them about stock buybacks??

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 2:06 pm

@jordan: don't think anyone asked that. http://seekingalpha.com/article/524451-apple-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=qanda

robert

April 25, 2012 - 2:10 pm

sonny, i do follow the citi surprise index. its one of the reasons i have been turning more cautious,

jay

April 25, 2012 - 2:24 pm

Jordan I didn't either given the circumstances but the buy backs begin in Sep 30 and dividends anytime in the fourth quarter. Hope that helps

jordan

April 25, 2012 - 2:39 pm

thanks, Jay. Too bad for AAPL. They could have taken advantage of the recent price dip. I wonder if anaylsts are factoring in any buybacks into their EPS forecasts? Hope you're feeling better Jay--

sonnyblue

April 25, 2012 - 2:39 pm

@Bob: I know this is controversial, but the Fed should do QE 3 here, because the economy and the stock market can't live without the continuous feeding of morphine.

jay

April 25, 2012 - 3:25 pm

Thanks Jordan, big one tomorrow

scott

April 25, 2012 - 4:07 pm

@jay: God speed my friend

jay

April 25, 2012 - 5:12 pm

Thanks scotty

Robohogs

April 26, 2012 - 4:48 am

Pols issues: Debt ceiling expansion (likely pre-election now from what I have read), mandatory spending cuts starting in FY 2013, tax situation with Bush tax cuts expiring, budgets, etc.

sonnyblue

April 26, 2012 - 12:50 pm

@Bob: RDS.A looking good. How far up you think it could go?

rhino31

April 26, 2012 - 2:31 pm

RDS/A encouraging. Broad market set for new highs looks like.

sonnyblue

April 26, 2012 - 4:15 pm

@Bob: STX announces 2.5 Bil stock buyback. WOW.

sonnyblue

April 26, 2012 - 4:19 pm

WDC earn $2.52 vs. $1.55, rev $3.04 Bil vs. $2.42 Bil.

golfcar101

April 26, 2012 - 4:23 pm

@sonnyblue: good call if i remember you were buying against cody short

sonnyblue

April 26, 2012 - 4:32 pm

@Golf: yes, I did, but it seems already be priced in. It does not move up much.

robert

April 26, 2012 - 8:40 pm

beat and raise from wdc. market spooked by pricing talk, but pricing in the raised. june will be a $10 eps run rate.

robert

April 26, 2012 - 8:42 pm

stx ramped repurchase anothe $2.5 billion. Gets em another 80 million shares. I would buy both on the dips if i were bullish on market/economy.

tendency

April 26, 2012 - 8:42 pm

what's up w/ the STX 5% drop AH?

robert

April 26, 2012 - 9:12 pm

wdc said hdd prices went down. i think

sonnyblue

April 26, 2012 - 10:13 pm

@Bob: do you have any WDC? would you buy it here on this dip? Way too cheap.

AlanHHI

April 27, 2012 - 8:03 am

@robert: I just did use the dip to fill up my STX allocation. I'm very bullish on the cloud market and I think that's all you need for STX.

sonnyblue

April 27, 2012 - 8:29 am

@Alan: nice buy! Merrill Lynch just downgraded STX from buy to neutral

AlanHHI

April 27, 2012 - 8:59 am

@sonnyblue: Forgive me for not being certain about your comment. Are you saying that the buy was good because ML presented a buying opportunity, or I'm not thinking right because of the downgrade. I really am not certain and I value your input.

AlanHHI

April 27, 2012 - 8:59 am

BTW, today is the last day to buy and get the 25 cent divvy being paid next month.

AlanHHI

April 27, 2012 - 9:02 am

@jeffmiller: Thanks for the update on IYT; I've been looking for exposure to this sector and this presents a great opportunity

sonnyblue

April 27, 2012 - 9:05 am

@Alan: you did fine. I should have waited like you to add more STX.

AlanHHI

April 27, 2012 - 9:13 am

@sonnyblue: Thanks very much for clarifying. My revised basis is 22.65, so I'm not complaining but I'm sure many of us on this site are lower (Robert probably at 10 or something

).

robert

April 27, 2012 - 10:19 am

mine is $11.75. if I were bullish, i would be buying the dips in here. Since I am not, I am waiting for a bigger dip in market and hdd stocks. My target buy prices are mid $20s and low $30's.

AlanHHI

April 27, 2012 - 10:37 am

@robert: Thanks for the update.

sonnyblue

April 27, 2012 - 10:48 am

@Bob: Global economy may be slowing down and this fact may be already priced in the market. But the big up trend in cloud storage is still intact and STX & WDC are so cheap that any deep value investors have to at least take a look.

robert

April 27, 2012 - 12:29 pm

market ignoring deteriorating macro right now, just like it did last spring. except for hdd which is trading off of news of no mo shortage. They are very cheap if macro holds, but thats a big risk in my mind, esp with the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling breach coming. i am torn between my intrest in buying more and my fear of the ugly fall.

sonnyblue

April 27, 2012 - 1:04 pm

@Bob: I'd rather buy STX than WDC. Seagate CEO Luczo used to work on Wall Street, had degrees in Economics & Psychology & MBA from Standford. He knows exactly how to manage his stocks & the Street. If you listen to WDC conference call, they sound so confused & nervous - unlike STX cc.

robert

April 27, 2012 - 1:13 pm

wdc did butcher conf call, because they r run by engineers. they were apologizing and excusing suboptimal execution. however, they ave been much better operators than stx over the past 10 years. so both managements have their strengths. but wdc did beat and raise, and they tend to lowball.

AlanHHI

April 30, 2012 - 10:13 am

Is there any reason anyone knows about why STX should be trading today? Is it just more correction from the over reaction to the WDC report?

sonnyblue

April 30, 2012 - 10:36 am

AAPL is the key tell for the market here. Do we "sell in May" or not?

AlanHHI

April 30, 2012 - 11:49 am

Anyone know what's up with MNST?

jay

April 30, 2012 - 11:55 am

Alan, chatter that KO might be making a run for MNST

AlanHHI

April 30, 2012 - 11:57 am

Thanks Jay, I'll sell half and see what develops

jay

April 30, 2012 - 12:11 pm

anytime Alan

AlanHHI

April 30, 2012 - 12:23 pm

This news from MNST seems strange. Wouldn't news of talks normally be released when the market is closed?

jay

April 30, 2012 - 12:24 pm

just chatter Alan

AlanHHI

April 30, 2012 - 12:25 pm

thanks, Jay; it's now written up in the WSJ

jordan

April 30, 2012 - 1:19 pm

@Alan: it prob leaked

scott

April 30, 2012 - 2:35 pm

I will be on Bloomberg radio at 4:15 to discuss MNST

sonnyblue

April 30, 2012 - 2:44 pm

@Bob: Can STX go against "Sell in May" market? Looking strong today - maybe it's the buyback.

robert

May 1, 2012 - 10:18 am

it can stay flattish in the bad saeason with buyback support. stocks rarely soar if the market is correcting. as you watch the stock performance, you realize we have a very special situation in this investment.

sonnyblue

May 1, 2012 - 12:42 pm

@Bob: What is your target for INTC? Why is it so strong lately after the sell-off after earning?

robert

May 1, 2012 - 3:02 pm

i am hoping for $40 for intel. assuming global macro holds. and i consider high $30s to be close enuff

robert

May 1, 2012 - 3:04 pm

looks like i wa premature calling for a sell the rally mode. i have raised a slug of cash, but havent sold anything in a while.

tendency

May 1, 2012 - 3:19 pm

wasnt premature if you were selling AAPL...

sonnyblue

May 1, 2012 - 3:30 pm

AAPL is under pressured due to Samsung new LTE phone due to be released this week. Investors are worried that AAPL may have problem with iPhone 5 production due to QCOM fab issues.

AlanHHI

May 1, 2012 - 3:32 pm

@sonnyblue: Is that why AAPL reversed this morning? Was something announced midday?

AlanHHI

May 1, 2012 - 3:34 pm

Personally, I think AAPL is so ridiculously cheap that I just buy some when I have room and sell a little when it gets to be too big a part of the portfolio for me.

tendency

May 1, 2012 - 3:35 pm

as usual it's my belief the iphone 5 worries are unfounded so continue to add AAPL on nice pullback days

sonnyblue

May 1, 2012 - 3:39 pm

@Alan: Go and listen to Q&A of Apple conference call. They said iPhone supply is in balance, and inventory is rising. It's natural that people will wait to buy the new iPhone 5. But many will lose patience and go with the hot LTE phone from Samsung to be released this week. It seems everyone under-estimates Samsung. "The Koreans are coming!"

AlanHHI

May 1, 2012 - 3:43 pm

@sonnyblue: SB, you are probably right about people losing patience (or at least some people). On the other hand, there are many people who upgrade iPhones each cycle. They can sell their existing iPhone on eBay to Russia for enough money to pay for a new generation iPhone without the American subsidy. I've seen people do this, and if there's one, there's many.

sonnyblue

May 1, 2012 - 3:49 pm

@Alan: when you buy your first iPhone, you really want one. When you upgrade your iPhone, the new one must be 2 or 3 times better or why even try. It happened the same way to the PC upgrade cycles in the past 20 years.

AlanHHI

May 1, 2012 - 4:03 pm

@sonnyblue: Fair enough, but the iPhone 5 will be 4G (at least it better be!!). That should be enough to get a massive upgrade. I remember when the 4S was pronounced as a disappointment, and the stock sold off. Then ER showed that the whole world wanted SIRI. We could see the same thing again with iPhone 5 and 4G.

AlanHHI

May 1, 2012 - 4:04 pm

All that said, I'm an Android guy. I like 4G and Verizon.

golfcar101

May 2, 2012 - 6:02 am

question to all iphone users other than talking to phone and some different

golfcar101

May 2, 2012 - 6:03 am

apps what is main reason for owning iphone over android. sorry for two posts hit wrong key

sonnyblue

May 2, 2012 - 9:16 am

"Sell in May" again, today?

robert

May 2, 2012 - 10:58 am

no doubt theres a sell in here this spring. the timing is the issue. fall gonna be rough.

sonnyblue

May 2, 2012 - 11:24 am

@Bob: I would NOT bet on a big sell-off this summer. The market seems to price in the worst case already as it refuses to go lower. Everyone seems to expect the same pattern as in 2010 and 2011. Therefore, it won't happen. Election year is generally more bullish from June to August.

jeffmiller

May 2, 2012 - 11:28 am

There are quite a few differences between this year and last -- GDP, earnings growth, payroll growth, housing firming -- not to mention last year's Japanese earthquake and tsunami. While anything might happen, i think we can do better than the seasonal pattern by monitoring data.

jeffmiller

May 2, 2012 - 11:30 am

Here is an interesting contrarian take on "sell in May" : http://seekingalpha.com/article/544781-sell-in-may-and-go-away-not-this-year

Robohogs

May 2, 2012 - 12:56 pm

Gc: i hate apple but have ipad, iphone, computer, 1 of eac for wife, 2 pads for kids, and the itv and time capsule. Whole architecture hangs together. And I know my stuff is still there. I jst shattered pad and phone screens and am back up like nothing happened

golfcar101

May 2, 2012 - 1:02 pm

@Robohogs: thanks

jeffmiller

May 3, 2012 - 9:03 am

In our chat here we have all been wondering whether lower tax receipts will cause another debt ceiling issue before the election. The most recent information says "No." http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1007-other/225085-treasury-no-debt-limit-hike-before-elections

sonnyblue

May 3, 2012 - 9:59 am

Retail comp are down at many retailers. Consumers are tapped out? Saving rate is too low. How many are one paycheck from bankruptcy?

AlanHHI

May 3, 2012 - 11:16 am

Thanks Jeff, that article is a relief. That fiscal cliff is foreboding, but it's nice to think I don't really have to put that in my investment perspective until the day after the election. That's six months I don't have to worry about it.

AlanHHI

May 3, 2012 - 11:18 am

@sonnyblue: Do we know enough yet to know whether the drop in retail is just a leftover from the warm summer. In addition, I know a lot of people, including me, are doing major buying (in my case autos) that have been put off several years because of the recession. Could that be reflected in the drop in saving?

jay

May 3, 2012 - 11:35 am

if everyone is paying cash for their major buying of autos, then that thesis would hold water, alan

robert

May 3, 2012 - 1:45 pm

tuff market. lots of implosions but large caps hanging in there. russell 2k breaking down, macro rolling over, yet mdy at high end of the range. for every successful long trade there's a loser. other than bernank pitching his put(z), we have little positive catalysts until next earnings season now. market is heavier than dow/snp suggest. we dont even have rhino pumping 1500 anymore. shorting a sleepy market could be dangerous, or profitable. i am screening for new short ideas.

Mitchm

May 3, 2012 - 3:17 pm

Let us know Robert...at least some clues/sectors...

sonnyblue

May 4, 2012 - 9:15 am

@Jeff: I'd bet babyboomers retiring in groves. Labor participation is lowest since 1981, and probably going lower if we don't encourage old people to continue to work. Their life expectancy can be 20 years after 65. The country can't afford this.

jeffmiller

May 4, 2012 - 9:53 am

@sonnyblue: You are right about retirements, especially those who cannot shift to a different job or location. There are also young people who choose education or travel when job prospects are not good. Part of the long-term deficit program will be to move the retirement age higher, probably starting with those who are now, say, under 50.

sonnyblue

May 4, 2012 - 12:28 pm

@Bob: you think the sell-off this week will continue next week? I'm not hedged enough with STX and INTC.

robert

May 4, 2012 - 12:36 pm

tuff to hedge em directly. i think we are still closer to high end of range than low end. feels like lots of stocks already in bear market mode. maybe the mo-mo defensive keeping indices up. but i continue to remain cautious. trillion dollar question is when the bernank whips out his put(z). i think its closer to 1200 than 1350, but thats just a guess.

sonnyblue

May 4, 2012 - 1:24 pm

@Bob: This job number is a real conundrum - not strong enough for markets to rally, not weak enough for Fed to do QE. But I'm watching AAPL here for leading signs of bigger bear coming.

sonnyblue

May 4, 2012 - 2:40 pm

@Bob: AAPL will take most tech stocks down with it.

sonnyblue

May 4, 2012 - 3:16 pm

11:29 AM: Taiwan's TPK and Wintek expect to see their iPhone touch panel shipments fall 15%-20% Q/Q in Q2, reports Digitimes. ------ Broadcom, Cirrus Logic, and Multi-Fineline Electronix have also guided for declining Q2 sales for product lines heavily dependent on Apple. The reports come after Apple issued cautious June quarter guidance, partly due to an increase in iPhone channel inventory.

jay

May 4, 2012 - 3:50 pm

SB check my diary for the facts on Wintek and TPK

jay

May 4, 2012 - 3:51 pm

check this SB,

jay

May 4, 2012 - 3:51 pm

http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=21763

sonnyblue

May 4, 2012 - 4:11 pm

@Jay: iPhone life cycle is becoming so big that it will disrupt Apple's financial performance every time it changes. This is very similar to investing in movie studios or game software. Most of current users will wait for iPhone 5 and therefore it's so hard to predict how many iPhones 4S will be sold this quarter and next. And even when new iPhone is introduced, you always run a risk of production shortage b/c the volume shipped is so huge. This is something that Intel went thru during PC growing pain period.

jordan

May 7, 2012 - 10:27 am

@Jay: haven't gone thru CTSH yet. Was it really THAT bad??

jay

May 7, 2012 - 10:27 am

hey J

jay

May 7, 2012 - 10:27 am

not as bad as the shellacking its taking but for now its dead money. long run, still a good holding

jordan

May 7, 2012 - 10:42 am

reaction seems overdone, especially considering while they lowered rev guidance, they still raised EPS guidance

jay

May 7, 2012 - 10:44 am

exactly Jordan, rsied by almost $0.20/share..shows you that OMs are improving..i think they are massaging the numbers and setting themselves up for nice beats going forward

jordan

May 7, 2012 - 10:48 am

I'm buying some for an intraday bounce (long CTSH)

jay

May 7, 2012 - 10:48 am

GL jordan

sonnyblue

May 8, 2012 - 10:18 am

@Bob: are we on our way to 1200? Oil price collapse and MCD weak sale may signal a big slowdown in global economy.

sonnyblue

May 8, 2012 - 1:36 pm

Don't sell in May in election years: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/91725423/

robert

May 8, 2012 - 3:31 pm

that is an interesting study from Bespoke. if correct, buy in may and trade away!

sonnyblue

May 9, 2012 - 10:43 am

@Bob: I'm adding INTC here. It just raised dividend again Monday. A no-brainer.

scott

May 9, 2012 - 12:10 pm

We are testing out a new feature on WSAS - Polls - Check on the bottom right of this home page

scott

May 9, 2012 - 12:24 pm

Sorry the poll is on the bottom left

robert

May 9, 2012 - 4:13 pm

i cant argue with an intel purchase at these valaution levels. and i cant argue with seasonality as you pointed out, summer is positive in election years. but i am not adding to long book yet. correction not deep enough.

robert

May 9, 2012 - 5:21 pm

cisco pooched outlook. and stock is back to dead in the water. like i said on all the bullish silliness over feb quarter manufactured beat, it was a better sale than new buy approaching $20. its not really dirt cheap and its growing revs low single digits.

sonnyblue

May 9, 2012 - 6:05 pm

@Bob: CSCO glory days are over. It's a value trap. Do you expect stocks going much lower this summer? I'm not sure about that. All the bad news from Europe are so repetitive that investors are pretty much giving up by now. Those who want to sell already sold a long time ago.

AlanHHI

May 10, 2012 - 9:07 am

@sonnyblue: A lot of stocks these days are very cheap, not STX cheap, but cheap. For example, I think AAPL selling at 10.5 times next year's earnings is very cheap. At this level, I think we're need a major unknown exogenous event to kick us way down from here. The fiscal cliff could do it in November if it becomes clear that Congress won't budge and will sacrifice the country for their petty politics. I don't think Europe can do much more damage since everything that can go wrong is well know and presumably priced in.

jay

May 10, 2012 - 9:19 am

Alan, not to split hairs but AAPL is trading at 8.52x next years earnings after you back out the $110/share in cash based on $53.88 which is the current estimate for 2013.

AlanHHI

May 10, 2012 - 9:26 am

@jay: You're absolutely right, but I purposely left that out, since AAPL is so cheap before you back out the 110. I wonder what price AAPL has to get to before the deep value investors like Robert get interested?

jay

May 10, 2012 - 9:28 am

not sure about Bob but I am have seen the institutional inflows..I am sure all the dividend funds are buying as are most value funds..at these levels with more than likely very conservative forecasted revenue growth of 20%, undervalued by 60% at least.

sonnyblue

May 10, 2012 - 10:10 am

@Alan: The key thing here is to find out who would be selling stocks here after 12 years of going-nowhere market. My bet is that all the sellers are gone. Maybe we have insider selling here and there due to tax change next year. Those who own stocks here are pretty much long-term.

Alanhhi

May 10, 2012 - 10:23 am

@sonnyblue: that pretty much sounds true except for the traders, both the ones here that tend to use options and the high frequency groups. They can certainly push prices around from day to day, but they probably don't chanf

Alanhhi

May 10, 2012 - 10:27 am

Change the overall direction as much, they just make it more volatile

sonnyblue

May 10, 2012 - 10:38 am

@Bob: would you add RDS.A here? it pulled back hard as oil price crashed.

robert

May 10, 2012 - 11:44 am

rdsa has 5% yield here with decent unit growth ahead on global LNG project startups. i think its a good purchase down here after correction.

jay

May 10, 2012 - 11:47 am

new poll up..please weigh in

scott

May 10, 2012 - 11:50 am

Today's poll: Will Nuance (NUAN) disappoint once again tonight? Long - NUAN

sonnyblue

May 10, 2012 - 12:05 pm

@Bob: I will add RDSA slowly here. I'm concerned that CSCO & PCLN earnings showed the effects of Europe slowdown. Even in Apple CC, Tim Cook said it's a tough economy in Spain. I think we will see SPX below 1300.

robert

May 10, 2012 - 12:50 pm

right now intel is hosting an investor presentation being streamed over the internet. its a good look into all of the technology intc brings to the table. and supoprts my case that intel is a long term winner from mobile and cloud computing. catch it on their websire.

sonnyblue

May 11, 2012 - 1:24 pm

@Bob: you were right about the banks. They are just total black holes.

scott

May 14, 2012 - 9:19 am

A new WSAS Poll is coming out at 10AM. Take a look at the JPM poll results

robert

May 14, 2012 - 11:44 am

selling very organized. i thought we would get a messier selloff before short term bottom. not buying anything yet. VL arithmetic index down 7% from high representing the av stock. i think we get 10%+

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 12:48 pm

Bob has it right--another 3-4% down, but there are some values appearing in energy, tech, metals.

jay

May 14, 2012 - 2:47 pm

R31, valuations, fundamentals, multiples, PRG growth ration..none of those matter..what we have is a technical, macro event driven declines, plain and simple..sell for the sake of selling, valuations and fundamentals be dashed

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:22 pm

Not disagreeing Jay, but I'm not a hedgie--if I can buy some of these energy names for example at single digit PE's and/or 3-5% plus yields, I'm going to look past Euro issues. I don't have partners to answer to.

jay

May 14, 2012 - 3:26 pm

totally agree R31

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:30 pm

Anyone else taking a shot at JPM? I am. I sold some Jan low 30's spreads. The Dimon premium is no gone, I'm entering the stock at book with a $15 billion buyback and a 3% yield to boot. Jamie Dimon still the best in biz. No way he leaves this trading turn as his legacy. Risks are obviously regulatory/political and/or global macro goes all 2009 on us, as Bob has been warning us. I take those risks seriously, but I'm taking a shot. Some of the preferreds look interesting to me as well at around 6 7/8-7%.

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:34 pm

Actually, the JPM/PI 8 5/8 (which I believe Dimon owns personally) is yielding around 8 1/8 here. Haven't acted--need to look at these a bit closer to see if they are callable, *** or non ***, etc. Interesting though.

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:35 pm

That's hilarious--I get edited in last post for posting the shortened version of "cumulative." LOL.

jay

May 14, 2012 - 3:40 pm

lol

golfcar101

May 14, 2012 - 3:43 pm

@rhino31: you have company in jpm coopermans omega advisors upped shares from 877,000 to 2,220,864 shares

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:45 pm

Thanks golfcar, hadn't seen that. I'm just a bit smaller that Omega to clarify.

jay

May 14, 2012 - 3:47 pm

lol R31

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:49 pm

Also added to WFC 30 strike short put pos today. Stumf now the new golden boy. Plus, more plain vanilla banks will get money flows vs. "trading" banks like MS GS and JPM. I think non bank finance does well too---love to see V get knocked down a few points so I could enter.

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:49 pm

I haven't read Codys

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:51 pm

I haven't read Cody's column on JPM today--I'll make the line on the use of "banksters" at 6. Oh, and he probably slobbers all over the OWS commies too I'll bet. Ugh.

rhino31

May 14, 2012 - 3:52 pm

Love how Cody can look at bunch of lefty freaks wearing Che shirts and holding up signs that say "eat the rich" and describe them as "true capitalists." Wow--talk about projecting.

jay

May 14, 2012 - 4:11 pm

lol R31

sonnyblue

May 14, 2012 - 4:29 pm

@Bob: STX is green in a sea of reds. Low PE, high dividend, plenty of buybacks should work most of the time.

robert

May 15, 2012 - 3:39 pm

just checking in boys and girls. so we have any female subs?? still not buying anything. althought my new buy screen is now replete with MITE candidates, materials, energy, tech, and industrials. that's the place to bottom fish if you want to make money in a rally. i would avoid defensive names at the highs. i am son no mo-mo.

jordan

May 15, 2012 - 4:10 pm

@Bob: I feel like this pattern in the market is setting us up for a bounce and then more correction as we enter summer. Would fit the pattern of the last few yrs

robert

May 15, 2012 - 10:29 pm

jordan, i do think we get a summer bounce, however, i am expecting it from early/mid june as the global macro will deteriorate into earnings season. i good bottom might be first half o june.

sonnyblue

May 16, 2012 - 10:31 am

@Bob: INTC is under pressured today due to Warren Buffett selling half position in it. I'm adding more.

robert

May 16, 2012 - 11:03 am

it feels as if the "sell the rallies" mode is now well established. despite being criticized by talking heads for my "sell something" columns in march and april, yes plural, they were exactlty the months to derisk. it might be too late now, despite hearing the heads promoting defensive stocks only. i am not yet adding risk, but i am working the new buy list for a handful of targets. i hope stocks fade into june, as the "sell in may" pattern accelerates. at that point, if we get there, and with a II sentiment buy signal, i would add risk on a trading basis. i am avoiding the defensive new high list like the plague.

sonnyblue

May 16, 2012 - 12:02 pm

@Bob: The market peaked on April 1st. Stock Traders Almanac issued Seasonal Sell signal on April 3rd. Your "Sell Something" article was on April 20. So far, so good. But in Presidential election year, the market tends to pull back in April and May, then rallies strong from June to August. Note that the Citi Economic Surprised Index has flatlined and no longer diving lower. SPX has corrected 6.4% since the top, and I think it's time to go long, or at least cover shorts.

rhino31

May 16, 2012 - 12:10 pm

Props to Bob on his Sell Something call--dead on correct.

rhino31

May 16, 2012 - 12:10 pm

Non props to me on SPY 1500 call--it's what you'd call the opposite of right.

rhino31

May 16, 2012 - 12:11 pm

For now

rhino31

May 16, 2012 - 12:17 pm

Added to CVX at 90 strike--good yield support there at almost 4%. XOM still vulnerable--yield sucks comparatively. Never understood those guys not ponying up on dividend. Guess they need the money to make more great buys like XTO

scj

May 16, 2012 - 12:20 pm

XOM just raised dividend by 20%, and does more buyback

scj

May 16, 2012 - 12:24 pm

I hold a fair amount of both and dividend roll regularly. The dates are usually 1 week apart, XOM goes exdiv first

robert

May 16, 2012 - 12:55 pm

the presidential cycle does throw a curve into the normal seasonality. and it does call for a summer rally. the question is from what level? remeber 2008 was a presidential election year as well. with all of the political and macro risk out there, the lack of M&A, deteriorating global economic conditions, complacent investor sentiment with many highly invested bears, and a Bernanke put well below current market levels, i am taking the "under" on the floor from which a summer rally can happen. if you think the Bernanke Put(Z) gets whipped out for a 7.5% correction i have some pokeman collectibles to sell you!

robert

May 16, 2012 - 1:14 pm

and sunney, "sell is a four lettered word" came out on march 19th, within a week and 75bps of the top for the VL Arithmetic index(equally weighted, highly diversified and best general market index, imho) for the year so far. i had gone in print calling for a 2012 high in march and i am sticking with that call.

sonnyblue

May 16, 2012 - 1:58 pm

@Bob: it looks like you are right as the market cratering lower today. It's amazing a little country like Greece can create so much fear in the market. But still, I strongly believe that 2012 summer won't be like 2011 & 2010. That would be too easy. The market will surprise the most when least expected.

robert

May 16, 2012 - 4:28 pm

that surprise would be a 2012 top in march.

sonnyblue

May 16, 2012 - 5:15 pm

@Bob: Several things to think about: oil price peaked in July 2008 right before Olympic in China (8/8/

, but oil price is crashing now. Gold price was surging to new high in summer 2011 due to Euro's crisis, but it is crashing down now due to the same reason. There is known unknown and there is unknown unknown. lol.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 9:04 am

@Scott: US GDP=$15,094 Bil; China GDP=$7,298 Bil; Greece GDP = $302 Bil... It takes China 2 weeks to grow 1 Greece GDP.

scott

May 17, 2012 - 9:05 am

@sonnyblue: It just doesn't matter http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9mf3Bypyk8

scott

May 17, 2012 - 9:05 am

The create-a-crisis people are back at it

scj

May 17, 2012 - 9:33 am

Scott, thanks for your column focus today.

scott

May 17, 2012 - 9:36 am

@scj: my pleasure

robert

May 17, 2012 - 10:42 am

probably ok to add energy, esp very oversold oil services, to the long book for a trade. the mad money men all capitulated last night. i cant divulge names lest i get frozen out from trading. but the large cap usual suspects would be on my new buy list.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 10:47 am

@Bob: I heard Tech companies derives 25% of revenue from Europe. This means more selling in Tech names?

robert

May 17, 2012 - 10:57 am

the next leg down will entail selling what you can sell in addition to selling what you feel is too risky to own. the risk on stock have been so pummelled, a large chunk of risk has been removed. if you are bearish, it makes sense to hold cash, not defensive stocks, if you are bullish, the MITE sectors are the best to play for a rally. expensive, defensive shares with low single digit growth have their place in a portfolio, however the time to buy them was when the talking heads pumped the risk on trade in q1.

tendency

May 17, 2012 - 11:01 am

bob are you ever in a positive frame of mind?

scj

May 17, 2012 - 11:04 am

that is his pfom

robert

May 17, 2012 - 11:05 am

tech and industrials have big euro exposure. as do health care and staples...there is no sustainable decoupling.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 11:09 am

S&P sector with % revenue derived from Europe: Tech = 25%, Materials = 20%, Energy = 16%, Industrials =14%, Discret = 13%, Health = 10%, Staples =9%, Financial =7%.

robert

May 17, 2012 - 11:11 am

oct 5th i wrote "risk on column" at thestreet.com. march 19th i wrote first "risk-off" trade column here. i said all types of stocks had risk, including defensive ones for valuation purposes. i was more long the past few 6 months than from summer 2008. but the global macro and euro banking system is fading hard. that makes it hard to be bullish. we r due for a bounce, but as i wrote in january, i expect the high for the year to be in march. we have fixed none of the structural issues that caused the first financial crisis. its only a matter of time before another one.

Mitchm

May 17, 2012 - 11:13 am

you wrote this in Dec: But if the market acts as I expect, we should get another opportunity for a long side trade. For this I still like the MITEs, or materials, industrials, technology, and energy sectors. These stocks tend to be priced at the lower end of their ranges, and have some of the lowest valuations in the market. Small and mid cap stocks tend to be cheaper than the large caps in these sectors, and the cheapest tend to be unburdened with dividends. Currently, the cheapest stocks tend to be non dividend paying small/mid cyclical growth stocks in the MITE sectors. Being a deep value guy, I am there.

robert

May 17, 2012 - 11:14 am

that doesn't mean one should avoid shares forever and always. in my opinion, high quality companies are the world's best credits and ZIRP will be with us til we become Greece. so the game can go on for much longer. and when big inflation does hit, stocks can protect you as well to some degree. so i am not a perma bear, just aware of systemic fragility and willing to trade the range. but not stay fully invested at top.

robert

May 17, 2012 - 11:15 am

does that work?

Mitchm

May 17, 2012 - 11:15 am

will that explains the selling in the IBD 50...

Mitchm

May 17, 2012 - 11:17 am

can you name a few MITE names?

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 11:24 am

@Bob: do you think the bond market is in a bubble like Doug Kass has been insisting? Never heard you comment about it.

robert

May 17, 2012 - 11:48 am

bond market biggest bubble ever, and its eventual bursting will cause entire restructuring of financial industry. taxpayors on hook for biggest share now with forced retail buys, govt debt, mortgage guarantees etc. it will be a s*%tshow when that bursts.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 11:53 am

@Bob: Your comments are always colorful but we love them

robert

May 17, 2012 - 11:53 am

one does not want to underestimate how much mischief a collapse and recapitalization of the euro banking system can cause on the global economy and financial markets. and that is inevitable.

jay

May 17, 2012 - 11:56 am

Bob, do you think the EC/ECB/IMF dont see what the rest of us are seeing?

AlanHHI

May 17, 2012 - 12:00 pm

@jay: what are the rest of us seeing.

AlanHHI

May 17, 2012 - 12:01 pm

I really dont understand what it is and why it's such a big deal this month and not last month.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 12:07 pm

@Alan: 2 words = Europe & China. Europe is in disarray. Many in South Europe are broke and maybe can't afford to buy another iphone or ipad. CSCO & PCLN mentioned this tough Euro in their CC last week. China slowdown is obvious if you look at all the material stocks and what CAT said.

jay

May 17, 2012 - 12:14 pm

Alan, what we are seeing loud and clear is that if the EC/ECB/IMF dont find a solution and find it quick, this thing will make Lehman look like a walk in the park.

robert

May 17, 2012 - 12:16 pm

jay, i am sure they see. what can they do? more what? more cowbell? more money printing? at which dose of QEvitan does the market recoil?

jay

May 17, 2012 - 12:28 pm

they cant stand pat, can they Bob?

robert

May 17, 2012 - 12:36 pm

the global central banks will print until the suffocate the global economy in a mountain of paper debt. the question is when will the patient run out of air, and what happens to commerce after that?

robert

May 17, 2012 - 12:36 pm

Don't fear the lack of QE. Fear the QE that doesn't work.

tendency

May 17, 2012 - 12:40 pm

sell any QE big

tendency

May 17, 2012 - 12:40 pm

that's what will happen this time around

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 12:49 pm

@Bob: QE is the reason why we have $2 billions loss at JPM. We are not Japan. QE will kill us in the end and the Fed knows it.

tendency

May 17, 2012 - 12:51 pm

fool me once .. fool me twice .. etc etc

jay

May 17, 2012 - 12:51 pm

so what do you propose, SB? Sit pat?

robert

May 17, 2012 - 12:56 pm

jay, at some point u gotta settle up. the longer we wait, the higher the bill. what do u suggeswt, QE into infinity?

robert

May 17, 2012 - 12:57 pm

at some point we have to balance the income statement and balance sheet. QE does neither.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 1:01 pm

@Jay: yes, let the market works by itself. Let the prices discover their true levels, no matter how painful they are. When the Fed intervenes in the market, it's like the referees take side in a ball game. In any case, I don't think the next QE will not work and I bet the Fed knows it, too.

jeffmiller

May 17, 2012 - 1:01 pm

There are various actions under consideration for Europe. http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/05/possible-endings-for-the-greek-drama.html

Mitchm

May 17, 2012 - 1:31 pm

Thanks Jeff...enjoyed the analysis as well as the last paragraph insight...

scott

May 17, 2012 - 1:31 pm

Excellent and level analysis of the European situation. As always Jeff you have a clear view on the world on your blog , A Dash of Insight - http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/05/possible-endings-for-the-greek-drama.html#tpe-action-posted-6a00d83451ddb269e2016766910aa5970b One question - how about a TARP plan for Greece and Spain?

golfcar101

May 17, 2012 - 1:36 pm

helps explain jeff thanks

jeffmiller

May 17, 2012 - 1:54 pm

Thanks -- It can be hard to see all of the possibilities when we keep hearing only one. I'm sure there are discussions about deposit insurance as well. GaveKal mentioned that today in their report.

alanlevit

May 17, 2012 - 1:57 pm

@jeffmiller: Jeff, I've read all three of your columns now, they were very helpful. I started today not understanding why a Grexit would be a Lehman event (or worse) and I'm still in that camp. I thank you very much for your thoughtful analysis that keeps me that way. It seems to me that our banks have been thoroughly tested against much worse than 2008. I still don't understand why Greece existing the Euro negates all of that.

tendency

May 17, 2012 - 2:47 pm

only problem w/ jeff's take (which i completely agree with) is scott's synopsis: it just doenst matter .. at least at this point in the game

jeffmiller

May 17, 2012 - 2:52 pm

@tendency True enough. Everyone expects the worse so buyers are on strike. AAII sentiment numbers now the most bearish in two years.

sonnyblue

May 17, 2012 - 3:44 pm

@Bob: maybe we should wait till the next bottom June 12 on your Bradley cycle?

bobbbrad

May 17, 2012 - 3:52 pm

Scott - BWLD ? ? ? bad day

scott

May 17, 2012 - 4:12 pm

@bobbbrad: part of the indescriminate selling going on. BWLD has Zero exposure outside of US

robert

May 17, 2012 - 4:27 pm

bigest internet ipo ever?? bah humbug. sit on my facebook! stock will be no higher that opening price in 10 years.

tendency

May 17, 2012 - 4:28 pm

w/ you there bob

Mitchm

May 17, 2012 - 4:57 pm

LOL! I will be reusing that Bob!

jay

May 18, 2012 - 8:14 am

hey Bob, copyright that phrase ..or if not let me do it!! LOL

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 9:32 am

@Bob: what to do with STX? Down big in 4 days already?

AlanHHI

May 18, 2012 - 9:51 am

Does anyone know what, if anything, is wrong with STX?

golfcar101

May 18, 2012 - 9:57 am

in this market took 60% gain will buy back if keeps dropping

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 10:00 am

@Alan: All the big cap Tech like AAPL, INTC, MSFT, CSCO had come down hard past 2 weeks. STX is second-tier Tech stock - it will come down even harder.

alanlevit

May 18, 2012 - 10:04 am

@sonnyblue: thanks, last time this happened I chickened out with a third of my positionand had to buy it back higher; for now i'll ride this one out unless something specific to STX develops

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 10:11 am

@Alan: So many investors have big profit in STX (It went from 9 in October to 32 in April) It could be just profit taking.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 10:15 am

FB pricing is a classic illustration of differing approaches. Retail investors excited -- many commenting about the company defining a new age for the Internet.

golfcar101

May 18, 2012 - 10:18 am

jeff do you have a opinion on fb

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 10:18 am

Lots of discussion about growth, paths to monetize mobile, emphasis on young people.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 10:20 am

Meanwhile, those of us who like to have more traditional value metrics are surprised by value of $100 B or so. That is over $100 per user.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 10:22 am

Webush analyst Michael Pachter is talking about average revenue per user. He thinks that better ad targeting will increase revenue and is looking at $6 or $7 per user (versus $4 last year). the company is worth "a ton."

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 10:24 am

@golfcar -- Like Bob, I think it is hard to make money buying at such a high multiple of sales.

AlanHHI

May 18, 2012 - 10:51 am

@sonnyblue: It looks like, at least this moment, that the STX weak hands have sold out. Time will tell.

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 11:20 am

@Alan: I remember Robert said he will add STX again if it drops to 24.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 11:26 am

Josh Brown is calling FB "Low-frequency trading"

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 11:32 am

@Jeff: this is FB secondary offering. The first IPO was 2 years ago, done by GS. lol

Mitchm

May 18, 2012 - 12:27 pm

LOL....still laughing about Marcin's line yesterday

jjss

May 18, 2012 - 12:36 pm

Bob Marcin said on May 16th: "i am avoiding the defensive new high list like the plague." Could someone please explain this for the unititiated? Thanks!

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 12:50 pm

I think there is a trade in FB. We are dipping our toes in the water around $40. There may have been some disillusionment surrounding the IPO, but I think retail investors will come in and fund managers will round out their positions taking the stock up.

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 12:55 pm

@jjss: I'm guessing those are staples, telecom, utilities, drugs stocks that make the new 52-week highs recently like CL, T.

scott

May 18, 2012 - 1:14 pm

I flipped my FB IPO shares - all of 200 for a client - at $40.95

scott

May 18, 2012 - 1:15 pm

The unthinkable could happen as early as next week - it breaks the IPO pricing

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 1:16 pm

@Scott: does your broker restrict you from future IPOs if you flip your allocation?

golfcar101

May 18, 2012 - 1:23 pm

schwab dose if flipped within 31 days no ipo for 90 days do it 2 times in year no ipo for a year love how they put rules on what you can do with your money make enough on ipo i say who cares

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 1:30 pm

@golfcar: I know. Those rules are silly.

scott

May 18, 2012 - 1:30 pm

@jordan: as it turns out I got stock from MS where I only have two legacy accounts. Only one account had IPO papers. So, I don't really care if I get locked out of the next IPO

scott

May 18, 2012 - 1:30 pm

If I had to hold FB for 30 days I would not have put in for it

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 1:31 pm

@scott: I hear ya. I don't usually put in for many IPOs either.

rhino31

May 18, 2012 - 1:53 pm

Screw Schwab

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 1:55 pm

@rhino: Schwab prop has to agree to implement those sort of restrictions just to get their allocation from the syndicate group or lead underwriters

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 2:20 pm

Trade updates and sentiment comments in the Pysche diary--

robert

May 18, 2012 - 2:30 pm

i dont give a rat's *** about FaceBook. i am more concerned about all of the issues driving shares lower. i am in print. facebook will be below the offering price in 2022 in real term. mark it down.

sonnyblue

May 18, 2012 - 2:34 pm

@Bob: The market is saying something serious is about to happen. It has a feel of 2008 to it. Global recession can't be ruled out. FB ipo is really a distraction.

jordan

May 18, 2012 - 2:35 pm

Why so much anger, Bob? I'm concerned about the macro issues also. The two dont' have to be mutually exclusive

jhudson

May 18, 2012 - 3:29 pm

how is this market action different from a typical "sell in May go away" one?

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 3:37 pm

Three things that might help in Europe - -news could come at any time. Remember last year when we would get the late stories from the European press?

robert

May 18, 2012 - 3:37 pm

i am sick and tired of all facebook all the time.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 3:38 pm

First -- progress in deposit insurance for Eurozone -- helps with the 'bank run' story.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 3:38 pm

Second -- Allow ESM to lend directly to banks. This has been discussed, but not approved.

robert

May 18, 2012 - 3:39 pm

i am delighted FB user and love the product. i never willingly clicked on an ad or gave them a penny of cash

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 3:40 pm

Third -- Give ESM 'banking authority' which would permit leverage. This would require a big change, but might be more appealing to Merkel than other alternatives. This has also been proposed.

jeffmiller

May 18, 2012 - 3:41 pm

These are not opinions, but ideas that have been mentioned before which would move the market if they got traction. Some things to watch for as you follow the news.

scott

May 18, 2012 - 4:41 pm

FB was a dud

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Brian Gilmartin, CFA, founded Trinity Asset Management (TAM) in 1995, where he is currently a portfolio manager. TAM manages money for individuals, small foundations and small business pensions via separate accounts at Charles Schwab. TAM’s style is primarily large-cap and growth-oriented, with an emphasis on the following sectors: technology, financial services, retail, basic industrial and health care, with some cyclical exposure. Before TAM, Gilmartin was a fixed-income buy-side analyst at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago. Previously, Gilmartin was a fixed-income analyst on the sell side at Clayton Brown & Associates. Gilmartin holds a master’s of business administration from Loyola University and a bachelor’s from Xavier University.