The “forward 4-quarter” estimate for the S&P 500 jumped to $107.27 this week, consistent with the $3 – 4$ bump we see at the start of every quarter, although the $107 estimate is comparable to the July and October estiamtes only to see the number drip lower through the quarter.
There is a lot of shifting going on within the 10 sectors of the S&P 500 – basic material est’s have been taken down substantially in q4 ’11, while financials are expected to be the strongest sector in terms of growth for 2012.
The only sectors that are expected to show y/y growth in 2012 (as things stand today, and we still havent seen q4 ’11 numbers) are consumer discretionary and staples, technology and telecom.
Our own expectations are for “better-than-expected” earnings for both industrials and technology sectors. Industrial estimates for q4 ’11 have held in pretty well despite all the worries about Europe, (from 14% on Oct 3rd to 10.3% today) while technology est’s which were expected to grow in q4 by 9.7%, have slid to 6.5% today.
JPM reports this Friday morning and next week, the flood starts.
The next number that matters will be the Jan 20th, after we’ve seen the reports next week, and analysts adjust numbers for the co’s not yet reported.
(long JPM, havent added to or sold any in a while)
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