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My Gut Feeling for Today, August 13, 2013

It is officially a Seinfeld market. We have a market about nothing. Not that there’s anything wrong about that. You just need to ask yourself if you are Jerry, Elaine, George or (Cosmo) Kramer. China appears to be springing back to life. I remain on the record as saying that Chinese economic activity is managed […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, July 9, 2013


Alcoa (AA) reported earnings last evening. There are a few takeaways. First, that demand appears to be on the rise for aluminum and aluminum products. Second, despite the company’s history, it managed to better Wall Street expectations. Last, Alcoa is still not investible but the companies that demand its products such as automotive and industrial […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, January 9, 2013 ($$)


After reaching a multi-year high on Friday, the markets pulled back the past two days. Expect the broken clock call for the end of the “bull market” from the perma-bears pundits to resonate. I maintain that we have yet to really begin a secular bull. Just as we managed to recover from the tech crash […]

The Worst-Run Company List of 2012

Ever since October 2006, I have published my list of Worst Run Companies. The list is reevaluated every year, burying those that have disappeared, excusing those that have improved and selecting new members for inclusion. Due to the unfortunate effects of Super Storm Sandy, I have delayed publishing this year’s list up until today. Here […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, October 10, 2012 ($)

The pullback continued as traders tried to get a jump on what is widely (or wildly) expected to be a disappointing earnings season. However, they were met with some lead-off scores by the good guys as Yum Brands (YUM) reported better than expected earnings supported by strong sales, same store comps and margin growth. Revenues […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, October 9, 2012 ($)


That 2 – 4% pullback that I have been expecting appears to have begun. It might be a normal precursor to the need for traders to take off some risk ahead of earnings season. In the grander scheme of things, a pullback of this magnitude is a normal occurrence. The normality of such an occurrence […]

The Quarterly “Bump” in Earnings Estimates


Although it is tough to recognize in a market where the market p/e continually compresses, in my opinion there is an upward bias to corporate earnings estimates, whether it be to the fundamental nature of capitalism (profit maximation, etc.) or perhaps due to the seemingly optimistic outlook for their coverage, on the part of most […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, April 11, 2012 ($)


There is no sugar coating yesterday’s action, as it was ugly. However, I also sensed panic in the air. You are being given an opportunity to put money back to work rather than to head for the hills. Be wary of the bears that are running up and down the aisles high fiving each other. […]

Options Intelligence: Bracing for Earnings


As investors awaited the start of earnings reporting season traders became a bit more cautious. Monday’s trading was largely mixed with a positive bias but volume lagged and risk premiums rose. The S&P 500 Index (SPX—1,280.70) gained 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA—12,392.69) added 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ—2,676.56) was higher by […]

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