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After the Fed — Themes for Investors

In the midst of the noise, much of it political and therefore unhelpful for investors, here are the three most important things to know. None of these is widely understood, so those who get the message first will have an advantage. Everyone is starting to talk about stock prices as a multiple of 2014 earnings. […]

Indicator Update: Will Bernanke Change Course?

Last week I predicted a market focus on Syria, expecting President Obama’s Tuesday evening speech to be the focal point. My concept was correct, but events moved even more swiftly. The market celebrated as the chance of military action diminished. This week’s theme is easy to predict: It is all about the Fed. Will Bernanke […]

Distinguishing Risk from Fear

Understanding risk is the most important part of investing. Distinguishing risk from fear is a crucial to this knowledge. In my regular commentary I emphasize the difference in time frames between traders and investors. The trader is making a short-term forecast, booking gains and losses on an hourly, daily, or weekly basis. The trader is […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, April 16, 2013


(Due to yesterday’s tragic events, today’s commentary will not be password protected. Tomorrow it will only be available to Platinum subscribers.)  Where do I begin? To say that yesterday’s market would be unexciting and lethargic was an incorrect understatement. Rather the market, nay, the country was subjected to an exogenous event. When that occurs, all […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, April 11, 2013 ($$)


I was right about nearly everything yesterday except that the S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a new high. For that I say, as we would when I lived in Japan, gomenasai, which is, excuse me, in English. Clearly we are out of profit taking mode. The pullback was shallow and caught many people off stride. […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, April 1, 2013 ($$)


The S&P 500 (SPX) went out on a high note as we waved farewell to the first quarter of 2013. As you can see from the table below, most of the major indexes advanced about 10-13%, with one glaring exception, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX). 3/31/2013  Quarter  Change DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS      14,578.54 11.25% NASDAQ 100 […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, October 17, 2012 ($)


Tuesday transpired like the script I set forth. We got a solid follow through to Monday’s rally and ended on the highs of the session. Joining the party were material and metals stocks. Financials sent mixed messages off of a negative earnings response for Goldman Sachs (GS) and a positive reaction to the management changes […]

My Gut Feeling for Today, October 16, 2012 ($)


We had a textbook bullish day yesterday. A strong open got sold and we closed on the highs. Apple (AAPL) did a loop-d-loop and ended at its highs. Financials put in a strong session. The only major weakness came from mining and materials. On tap today are a slew of earnings from pre-market to after-the-close. […]

PC sector trading for scrap value, but patient investors required


The following is republished from Brian Gilmartin’s Fundamentalis  blog on October 4, 2012 While perusing our internal valuation spreadsheets this past week, it is hard to believe some of these valuations on the PC-related names like Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). Talk about cheap, and as I listen to the fat-box and read the […]

QE3 Blunders and Opportunities

The analysis of current Fed policy has included the usual parade of mistaken pundits. There is a legitimate debate about QE3, but it has been obscured by those with an agenda based upon their politics or their business models. The result is an exceptional opportunity for the long-term investor. Mistakes Here are the four biggest […]

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