Brian Gilmartin’s Earnings Diary for December 29, 2024

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Alcoa is trading very close to its October 4th and 2011 lows of $8.45. One of this year’s lemons, we are going to stay with the stock despite the European turmoil. AA reports on January 9th, one of the first large-cap blue chips to report the 4th quarter. Cash-flow and free-cash-flow will be scrutinized closely. Expectations are very low for AA, but the chart looks pretty ugly too. AA is one of our “dirt-cheap” stocks for 2012, but it requires some patience. (long AA, havent added to it in a while, will lower cost basis at some point.)

Jobless claims rose to 381k this morning, but remain below the key 400k level. I like the trend in jobless claims, with most commentators continuing to ascribe the progress to an improving job market. The Decemebr payroll report to be released in early Jan ’12 looms large. The S&P 500 was rejected at its 50-week moving average at 1,266.56 (roughly 1,270).

AMZN getting a lot of chatter after Goldman’s comments this morning. The March lows for AMZN were $160 - $162 so, in our opinion, that represents the next area of support. I like the fact AMZN has come in after its heady run. Gives us a chance to reload. The stock is getting oversold very quickly on the charts. (Long one core positon in AMZN - waiting for a chance to repurchase.)

Is homebuilding in the early stages of a bigger bounce ? I wish i could post charts to the site, but Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lennar (LEN) have bounced nicely off their October lows and now we await teh pullback to support. Along woth large-cap pharma, this could be the group that most surprises in 2012. We use a lot of different firms for research, with one being Schaeffer’s Investment Research out of Cincinnati, who use a combination of technicals, analysis, sentiment and options, and they continue to like homebuilders. The stocks have run substantially off their early October lows, with TOL now above $20, off its $13 low. The tangible book valuations are still pretty attractive. I am awaiting a pullback to put some money to work. We would only own the likes of Toll or Lennar for clients. Meritage is another that is often talked about as a long, but is a smaller mkt cap than we like to traffic in. (Long TOL, XHB in one client account. Long GS from the 9:16 am post too.)

are you adding amzn briang?

read the earlier post. waiting for the low $60′s next are of support.

Sorry, meant to say “low $160′s” in the previous post. AMZN is filling that opening downside gap (is my guess) so be careful in thinking today’s midday strength is buyable. High yield trading higher - HYG is now firmly above its 200 dma while the JNK is lagging. I do think the JNK will narrow the gap here shotrly, or before too long. (long AMZN, HYG, JNK)

December 29, 2024 - 3:51 pm