I could not resist the whimsical title. It is time for the annual Fed Symposium at Jackson Hole. This event, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has historically been the scene for various important hints about policy changes. It is also an occasion for informal, face-to-face meetings among central bankers and economists […]
Indicator Update: Will the Fed Experiment End Badly?
August 3, 2024 By Leave a Comment
Put together these ingredients: The biggest weekly market decline in two years, the winding down of earnings season, and a light week for economic data. The result? Financial TV producers will be seeking experts to explain whether we are starting a major correction. Analyzing the Fed will be a favorite theme. Unless and until we […]
Indicator Update: Time for a mid-course correction?
July 6, 2024 By Leave a Comment
After an event-filled 3 ½ day trading week, it is time to pause and reconsider. There is little fresh news in store this week, and therefore plenty of time for calendar-driven introspection. Is it time for a mid-course correction? I expect the punditry to assemble the evidence, with each concluding that (s)he has been right […]
Indicator Update: Fireworks Ahead?
June 29, 2024 By Leave a Comment
(6/28/14) With the stunning decline in Q1 GDP, the health of the US economy has once again taken center stage. The week ahead is shortened by a Friday holiday, but is packed with important data releases. It will all be over Thursday morning, when many will quit early and head for the beach. In a […]
Indicator Update: The Fed Behind the Curve?
June 22, 2024 By Leave a Comment
Once again, the market focus has turned to the Fed. For many months the official Fed policy has included an inflation target, an annual rate of 2%. For many months I have written that inflation will not matter until this level is in play. Suddenly, after a single month of data approaching this range, some […]
Indicator Update: What about “divergences?”
May 11, 2024 By Leave a Comment
The latest bearish meme is the focus on market divergences. The idea is that a “healthy” market shows confirmation from various sectors. The Dow made a new record high this week, which does not really reflect the overall market. Many smaller stocks have experienced a significant decline from their highs. In a week that will […]
Indicator Update: What about Ukraine?
May 5, 2024 By Leave a Comment
How worried should we be about the Ukraine crisis? Last week some regular readers whom I respect asked why I did not mention the Ukraine situation. It was a fair question, given the attention from the financial media. My answer was that it was an important story on many fronts – defining the future Putin […]
Indicator Update: Sell in May?
April 27, 2024 By Leave a Comment
Can positive economic trends overcome the weight of market seasonality? We all love simple rules, especially when supported by data. Throw in a rhyme or some alliteration and you have the makings of a powerful slogan. “Sell in May and go away” fits the bill. Despite the biggest flow of fresh news and data we […]
Indicator Update: Springtime optimism ahead?
April 20, 2024 By Leave a Comment
Some weeks feature a contrast between past and future — a possible inflection point. Here are the current elements: Important economic data with a forward look; Earnings news from major companies reporting on Q114; Corporate conference calls explaining the outlook for future earnings; and finally Economic implications for improved economic growth and business conditions worldwide. […]
Indicator Update: More Volatility Ahead!
April 13, 2024 By Leave a Comment
This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention. Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence […]
