Jay’s “So Money” Trading Diary for January 10, 2025

gm nflx gets downgrade as of now dose not seem to matter

gc… it’s on some sort of acid trip… someone pop the bubble please!

GM all by the way!

@charlskins: just trades on momentum unless we get some really bad earnings or news i think shorts will be a loss as is every other short so far in this market.

shorts a small part of portfolio so can`t complain to much

GM Charls

GM everyone

gm

hear you gc…. it seems to be the case at the mo.

hey Jay…. dilemma with NFLX…. calls or puts at this level?

EK up 32%

Big puzzler indeed

I am sticking with the dark-side shot on NFLX (long puts)

I laugh at your comment four days ago about it going to 100…

You were so spot on!

Everyone was hoping we go higher befpore earnings and now we are here. I will add another slug depending on todays action, Charls

jay i am also going to stick to nflx short would you add here?

On EK, hard to see it survive reorg BK

Yes, GC will add just not sure whether I do it right at the open or wait to see how things play out

I increased my exposure in GOOG by 40%..in early going it looks like a good move.

GM everyone. Nice early pop on GOOG. To be expected tho I think after the last 3 days

long goog, calls , leaps, short puts

agreed Randy

same here Jay. I increased my position by 45% or so yesterday

I took up a position yesterday… got in at 623…

Will add if it goes down..

Thanks for the heads up guys!

P going

JNPRs come roaring back

Good on ya, Randy

Good move Charls

JNPR sign of current sentiment in the markets, however nothing will turn around WBMD today

no positions in JNPR or WBMD

jay you concerned about potential MMI impact on GOOGs quarter?

fio tough to figure down today

NFLX continues to baffle me. I sold my short positions yesterday because could not continue to take the pain. This stock completely puzzles me on its skyrocketing rise in 2012. A play that worked great for me was a strangle just right before earnings during its last release-it will either plummet again once more data comes out on lack of subscriptions/money losing business/high cost of programming or go up even more based on what Reed Hastings is able to convolute up.

ibn hdb strong again today thanks for that heads up jay

Matt, a wee bit concerned but if they want to take on AAPL head to head, they have to get into the tje smart-phone market.

FIO is a tricky one to figure out (long fio calls)

NFLX looks to be catching its breath after that meteoric rise

mark, its a tough one indeed but yesterday was based on hasting’s comments, buyoput bs and shorts scrambling..i think they will stumble once again..cant be a one-quarter issue and all is right

long nflx puts

P….

wow europe’s up big

SINA and YOKU squeezing

SIFY on the move…IBN….missed it looked at it yest….

another big AMZN downgrade

marketwatch.com down for you guys?

no worries GC

Mitch not too late there

agree…on IBN…I am long SIFY

down for me Matt

i can get on the site, Matt

jay i own sify but wanted to build up postion add here or wait for pullback

where did the AMZN downgrade come from?

marketwatch out for me

think i’ll close out my RVBD feb $25 position though im hemming and hawing on it a bit

I was unable to get on Matt

Sify has a habit of running up and then pulling back GC

it’s down for me now too. I was on it a minute ago

Hi Jay,

GS is strong today. Any thoughts on it continuing to rally from here?

GMCR inflicting short pain

Hi Munah

Friday JPM will report and that will determine the direction that the sector takes going forward. I think JPM should be good.

no positions

Looks that way Mict (none)

Mitch that is

ZNGA….

Anyone usuing the sound on our site. I am not getting the sound since yesterday

using

GOOG sure reversed in a hurry

I have sound but it does come and go…refresh

thx Mitch

It sure did Mitch..

anyone buying or adding to jan goog calls these high fliers are sure out of favor

I was just going to add GC that they have run quite a bit, so this rest might not be a bad thing

I had a feeling this would occur which is why I said thus far this morning in my morning post on GOOG.

jay you expect another monster quarter from GOOG?

I think it will be good Matt..not Q3 like reaction post earnings. The reason is that prior to Q3 earnings the shares were trading at very depressed levels (sub $500 and near lows of the year). I think a 5-6% pop is warranted on good earnings.

looks like Mitch was right about GOOG around 614

bigger pop than 5-6% if GOOG is closer to $600 wouldnt you think?

anywhere around $600 or lower, it will pop harder.

interesting article in MacWorld http://mobile.macworld.co.uk/ipad-iphone/news/?newsid=3328975

curiously enough my bro has gone through 3 iphones..all broke within a year and he’s now using an android based device

love my iPhone 4S

what strikes me about that article is how 54% of respondents planning to buy a smartphone will go w/ an apple

wow

Same…Randy… It just works!

Buying some WBMD trade only

CSC hod

syrian leader vows ‘iron fist’ response .. what’s up w/ these guys?

‘US stocks lifted by alcoa’. really? alcoa? uh huh

anyone having to keep refreshing to get new posts

I had my iPhone 3 for 3 years until i upped to a 4s when they launched. Havent had any problems with the 3.

GC, my posts are flowing nicely at the moment but still dont have sound

lol Matt

market feel a little overextended to anyone or do i just have the jitters?

Matt I am with you. Putting back hedges slowly

upto 10% now

im picking up some FAZ

ok Matt

closed out RVBD position

another interesting article from MacWorld http://mobile.macworld.co.uk/mac/news/?newsid=3328306

Good trade, Matt

Moodys had upped India’s short term foreign currency rating from speculative to investment grade. This will help Indian companies to raise money overseas at better rates. Not that Moodys and the others matter but passing it on nonetheless.

jay are the banks and it companies your favorites in india

CTSH is having a great day and is part of my core holding investments. (long ctsh, calls-since 1999 on the shares)

GC, yes those two sectors in addition to infrastructure and construction, both heavily out of favor at the moment and dirt cheap.

just read an interesting article regarding what to expect from banks earnings. They are syaing that thanks to the Fed’s weekly H-8 data, we have a good sense of the net profitability of the industry. Bottom line is that the profits didn’t cover the dividends paid out

long FAZ calls here

downhill into the close me thinks

Randy, can you provide the link, I would like to read it

Any reason Matt?

no reason just a nagging suspicion in my gut

air’s feeling a little thick

heh

lol

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/balance-sheets-market-financial-institutions-capital/1/10/2012/id/38760

i keep having to refresh again to get caught up in here

refreshing for me

me as well

it works sometimes here. oh well

seems to be a pivot point shaping up in today’s market

its gotten awfully quiet out there .. almost spooky

Jay, what’s your take on that article? FAZ calls??

Interesting article Randy

I already have exposure there Randy but would prefer to hear how JPM numbers look Friday morning before accepting the argument made on their 100%

Fred just told me that CNBC had a bearish analyst on who reiterated his PT on NFLX of $45/share. He is expecting massive losses in 2012.

long nflx puts

love to see NFLX go down 50% just as fast as it went up this past week plus

i just dont see the light at the end of the tunnel for them

I think it happens, Matt. Too many things going on for it not too. I will be the first to admit that this rise caught me totally by surprise. At least, the speed of the rise did. I am increasing my dark-side shot by 10%.

RVBD falling… got out just at the peek…. phew! cheers ten

marcin has a positive article on seagate any thoughts?

GC..reading

I agree with his analysis. They are set to make a splash at CES. I am buying STX options. Easing in but buying.

thanks

anytime, bud

you’ve just added more of NFLX puts, Jay?

I am holding March 70 puts, and they are almost trash now.

double down if they’re almost worthless IMO

i snapped up a pinch more of my feb $80 NFLX puts

yes Savio when stock was down $3 or so

Thats what I would do as well, Savio..double down if they are almost worthless

gotta be some serious profit taking in NFLX today

wow. I have no intention to doubt your strategy here, Jay but what if the stock move in the opposing direction?

or maybe it’s a collective realization that the gig is up!

fingers crossed NFLX is setup to really crack after that huge run

today’s action is depressing, especially in the tech big boys (tho AAPL has had a nice run)

thinking that may very well be a big chunk of AAPLs pre earning run

looks like $100 capped NFLX so far….round numbers eh!

@mitchm, what is your take on NFLX at this level?

really respect your technical opinion.

Savio, there is always that possiblity but I have taken an educated risk with my negative slant on NFLX and if I am right the reward will be huge. If I am wrong, I will move on and learn from my mistake. Here are the issues: I know Hastings said that sub growth came back in 2H of Q2 but was that enough to offset the decline in the 1H of Q4? Second, they are going to lose massive amounts of money in 2012. Third, Hastings is a bit too much of an over- promise-and-under deliver sort of guy as far as I am concerned. Fourth, the missteps cant get fixed in one quarter. There is no buyout coming. Gene Muenster is nuts if he thinks YHOO is going to take over-NFLX has zero proprietary content, whats there to buy? Content costs are rising. Finally, NFLX will lose Starz next month. All those reason lead me to believe that my stance is the right one. Hope that helps, Savio (long nflx puts, long yhoo calls)

Forget how much AAPL CEO is being paid, what I would like to know is how much is YHOO CEO going to cash in? (long aapl, calls, leaps, short puts, long yhoo calls)

thank you very much for your information, Jay.

anytime Savio

got me a sneaky suspicion NFLX gonna take another crack at breaking through $100 over next few days

this time I am ready for it, Matt,

yeah if that were to happen and it failed a 2nd time .. oh yeah

Did you guys know that YHOO has gone through 5 CEO’s in 5 years? Man, talk about frazzled nerves. WSJ is saying that employees are expecting yet another round of layoffs at YHOO. I feel bad for the rank and file at that company

what does YHOO have besided their portal and a little search revenue? doesn MS’ bing power their search?

was it a couple years ago that MS tried to buy them?\

Jay is right he is in a different trade…I have np in NFLX. Technicals different…just looked at fib levels: 38% 87.49, 50% 83.67….I think it fills Monday’s gap fwiw….then see how it acts…jmho

Yes, MS does

three 4 years back..what a mistake by Yang to turn Softee down

thx Mitch

massive mistake

OPEN motoring

Mitch can you translate in English, please.

haha

volume doesnt seem all the good for OPEN given the big move

I am nicely in the money on FIO and OPEN calls now

disappointed i failed to double down on my OPEN call position when it hit low 30s .. oh well

cant win ‘em all Matt

lol .. my trading account is all to aware of that one!

FIO has really run out of steam at the $28 level

been hanging out right around there for about a week

yes\

I am surprised at the jig in Sina given the regulatory overhand the company is dealing with and will continue to deal with down the road. (no positions)

I think Mitch was referring to Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Jay

Does he mean we go down or up? Havent a clue about Fib levels, Randy

Greek market was the only one to close down (1.8%). What does that tell us?

Mitch can elaborate, but there are certian proven % levels that a stock hits after moving up, or moving down. 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%

NFLX got downgraded by BOA, Jay

in regards to GOOG, if you chart the high of the day to the low of the day, a Fib retracement of 23.6% brings it to 620.93, where we are now

sorry on the phone…Randy has it…just used fib levels from the move that started first day of the year….

just now, Savio?

this morning on boa

I am no technician, just fool around with Fib’s a little bit. Mitch is the man to talk about them

yes. :http://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-retreats-after-b-of-a-downgrade-report-2012-01-10?link=MW_latest_news

my eyes think 92 holds very short term then heads toward the 50 ma at 87.28 where you may get another bounce…NFLX

from neutral to underperform

thx Savio

not sure whether I posted this link for you all. http://www.wirelessindustrynews.org/news-jan-2012/2957-01092012-win-news.html

thx Mitch..that helps a lot

I guess I will stay with my 10% addition

GOOG is now appraoching the 38.2% retracement level of 623.31, FWIW

WFM now heading down…

Thx Randy. So what happens next per Fib?

that tilson is a one man stock manipulation machine

definitely so, Matt..big time crook

CSC hod

FYI, here is Tilson explanation of his take on NFLX. http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/77775437

I hope the downgrade from BAC would wake all NFLX bulls up and make them realize that they has no stand on their move.

translated his explanation reads “i bought a bunch of it when it was in the 60s now need to pump it up as much as i can and dump for a nice profit”

lol Matt

why don’t you write an article to defend your stand, Jay?

on NFLX, Savio?

that post was almost an article, Savio

it was definitely the longest post that been written in the diary

I already saved it

lol

actually not a bad idea, Savio, might do it and have them publish it on the front page

hahaha

dont get too famous on us now jay!

no worries there Matt…been there done that in the nineties..fly low under the radar now

I have only one wish for this year that NFLX would not kill us all. A….m….e…n

ha

lol Savio

jay what’s your feeling on LNKD these days?

did you cash out your long position?

RIG just took off

not a tech stk in case your wondering…

lol Mitch. I know Transocean

Matt, yes I did get out of long side trade and bought puts on LNKD

UBS pushing CRM now

LNKD has pretty low expectations for this quarter dont they?

Yes, sellsiders out with pom poms on

rubbish expectations, Matt

sweet move in nuan today (long calls)

GOOG looks to be making an attempt to recover wonder if today’s action was the bottom

FWIW, GOOG is now approaching the 50% retracement level of 625.31

FIO ugly

wow .. FIO just fell off a cliff something get announced?

NUAN has moved well the past few sessions

Craig Hallum confirms OCZ Tech wins deal with Facebook, may be negative for FIO because Facebook is #1 account

hmmmmm…sounds suspicious to me

Matt, FIO moving lower on news that OCZ is included in the MRVL deal with IBM. MRVL pulled OCZ in. (long fio calls, ocz calls)

have a hard time believing facebook would forklift dump their FIO infrastructure

Randy where did you see that?

saw a benzinga blurb on my ThinkorSwim platform, Jay

i’d think FIO would be in the low 20s if that were legit

FMR has upped their stake in FIO to a hair under 13% from the 4% and change earlier.

also, were it true, FIO would be obliged to put out a PR. Hmmm

that site says unconfirmed, Randy

heh - it’s probably tilson again im just going to blame him for everything

liking this late inning action in GOOG

shorting that stock is playing w/ fire this close to earnings

like it too…bought some GOOG

@Jay, BAC target for NFLX is $85. What is yours, Jay?

calls mitch or you stick w/ common?

my blurb said that Craig Hallum confirms. Thats all I can tell you Jay

Common

I don’t even know who Craig Hallum is…lol

ha that makes two of us

lol Matt

agreed

NFLX clawing its way back

Craig Hallum is a sell side shop

vaguely heard of them

GOOG touched the 61.8% retracement level, then backed off back down to the 50% level for the 2nd time. Let’s see if it blasts through the 61.8% level to the 78.6% level of 630.15

sounding a bit like Mitch now, aren’t I …LOL

NFLX news

Thanks Randy

NFLX news

dup

yeah im looking for it to hit $630 by EOD

RIG continues

mitch where do you see support for RVBD if it pulls back? $25?

I cant wait for NFLX earnings. (long puts) Jan 25th couldnt come fast enough for me

25.75 ish….shud hold…could make it as fa as 24.50 ish…doesn’t excite me either way…RVBD

im doubling down on my march $50 moonshot NFLX puts .. things are junk at this point

what is your price target on the crash, Jay?

Savio I missed your question Savio..thanks for asking it again. I am looking for under $50/share

If all the reasons I have outlined, we will get there…someone said that NFLX is worth $20/share given all the headwinds

if your thesis comes true, Christmas comes early for me

it hits $20/share im moving to hawaii

for all of us in the dark Savio

lol Matt

hoping FIO hits $25 over next few days

You want exposure or additional exposure Matt?

wanting to double my feb $30 position

okay Matt…are you in the money now?

i was when FIO was at $28

Matt, if that chatter were true we would have seen massive volumes. I am not buying the chatter.

yeah i agree

see ya’ll

later

bummer of a day, specially the way it started out. gave me a headache today.

@Randy: Why a bummer. I thought it held in quite well except for the restaurants which are lagging.

most of my positions were up big earlier and sank throughout the day. just venting, I know this is normal trading

@Randy: It happens. I liked the way GOOG held in and did a double reverse. Looks washed out.

I’m in for earnings on GOOG anyway. Wish SLV would take off a bit, lol