Can We Still Avoid Inflation? | by Friedrich A. Hayek

September 23, 2024 By Admin Leave a Comment

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Audiobook version of ‘The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle,’ compiled by Richard M. Ebeling and read by Gennady Stolyarov II. mises.org Read ‘The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle’ online mises.org Links to more online books and essays on Austrian Economics: What is Austrian Economics? mises.org The Austrian School of Economics: A History of Its Ideas, Ambassadors, and Institutions by Eugen-Maria Schulak & Herbert Unterköfler mises.org Audio book version: www.youtube.com Human Action: A Treatise on Economics by Ludwig von Mises mises.org Audio book version: www.youtube.com Theory and History: An Interpretation of Social and Economic Evolution by Ludwig von Mises mises.org Audio book version: www.youtube.com Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth by Ludwig von Mises mises.org Audio book version: www.youtube.com Historical Setting of the Austrian School of Economics by Ludwig von Mises mises.org Money, Method, and the Market Process by Ludwig von Mises mises.org The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science by Ludwig von Mises mises.org Principles of Economics by Carl Menger mises.org The Failure of the “New Economics” by Henry Hazlitt mises.org Audio book version: www.youtube.com Individualism and Economic Order by FA Hayek mises.org Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle by FA Hayek mises.org The Pure Theory of Capital by FA Hayek mises.org Monetary Nationalism and International Stability by FA Hayek mises.org Man, Economy, and State by Murray N. Rothbard mises …
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Platinum Chat

robert

December 17, 2024 - 12:05 pm

still more sloppy macro with decent miss from ny fed. in past 2 years, the bad macro would have caused short term hiccups in shares. not now. not in monetization bubble. sentiment turning bullish and new buy screen is light. so these should offset any positive spin from cliff negotiations. its just stupid to see talking heads salvaiting over one small concession to a lengthy process. see nhl negotiations for that. lots of progress made on most issues there, but still no hockey. there will be no grand bargain this year. we will go over cliff unless we kick the can with a "low progress, temporary deal" which i consider creaating more uncertainty than solution. the million dollar question is how investors will take a bad deal or no deal...

robert

December 17, 2024 - 12:07 pm

so i pose the question: what happens to stocks if we get a bad, small progress, temporary deal that kicks the issues down the road for anohter 6 or 12 months?

scott

December 17, 2024 - 1:39 pm

@robert: market rises and we go through fiscal cliff hell 2 next year

jordan

December 17, 2024 - 2:19 pm

@Bob: my guess would be a relief rally that is short-lived. Maybe one week market bounce. But would prob depend on what details got cemented and what got kicked down the road.

jay

December 17, 2024 - 2:40 pm

agreed Jordan

robert

December 18, 2024 - 11:16 am

stopped out of big chunk of short hedges at breakevenish. watch out below! added another new long starter position in the ems space. stock was down a lot from high, very cheap, and pays a real dividend. which is rare in the space. also, they have decent exposure to apple biz and should have double digit revenue growth in calendar 13.

robert

December 18, 2024 - 11:20 am

new buy screen is down to around 150 names which is slightly negative. under 100 is sell negative. NAAIM sentiment level is also approaching reduce equity levels. but the II sentiment indicator is still neutral. with positive seasonality and investors ignoring all negative news, i am more neutrally positioned.

robert

December 18, 2024 - 11:21 am

bulls win.

alanlevit

December 18, 2024 - 11:52 am

@robert: what is ems space? Thanks

robert

December 18, 2024 - 12:08 pm

electronics manufacturing services, ie the contract manufacturers

scott

December 18, 2024 - 12:51 pm

@robert: any specific names worth looking at?

robert

December 18, 2024 - 12:53 pm

now is the time to focus on what one owns as much as how much one owns. defensive, large cap names should lag the rally, and risk on MITE should outperform. consumer discretionary should also be good. cyclicals better than staples, including technology. in the seasonal trade, the rut outperforms the spy.

alanlevit

December 18, 2024 - 2:24 pm

@robert: Thanks, Bob, I think I found your company. The one I found is paying a 1.8% divvy right now, does that sound like yours?

robert

December 18, 2024 - 3:00 pm

sounds right.

robert

December 18, 2024 - 3:07 pm

if the china plays come back into vogue, my favorite tire and wheel company should get some action. it has a large mining and construction bsiness in addition to the ag exposure. that trade is still open.

robert

December 18, 2024 - 3:09 pm

even my pigment stock is getting a strong dead cat bounce and now profitable. thats the way my process should work. big trades when they work like gmcr, and pushes like pigments when they dont. thats the reason i have been banging out some new long positions in the past few weeks. the process seems to have found itself back in favor.

robert

December 19, 2024 - 12:29 pm

little known pooch. on monday, general electric held an analyst gathering and reduced both sales and profit estimates for the 4th quarter. it received little attention from the media, but the stock isnt taking the news very well. just something for the bulls to note.

sonny

December 19, 2024 - 1:14 pm

@Bob: earnings will be down in the next 2 quarters. It's almost a given.

jay

December 19, 2024 - 1:15 pm

Sonny, Bob any thoughts on FDX maintaining full year guidance despite economic headwinds? np

sonny

December 19, 2024 - 1:20 pm

@Jay: FDX is betting on weaker first half of 2013 and stronger second half. Plus lower fuel cost.

jay

December 19, 2024 - 1:22 pm

gotcha thx Sonny

robert

December 19, 2024 - 1:43 pm

fdx also has a large cost reduction plan in place ex fuel. with margin expansion built into targets, it can hold eps goals despite slower economic activity

robert

December 19, 2024 - 1:43 pm

jeff, any concerns yet about the cliff resolution?

jjss

December 19, 2024 - 1:44 pm

alanlevit, can you spell out Bob's co. please? Thx

sonny

December 19, 2024 - 1:54 pm

@Bob: There is a new theme for 2013 that stocks can return double digit next year not due to earning growth but by multiple expansion. As the uncertainties around fiscal cliff, the Euro and China growth are abating, stocks deserve higher multiple even with flat earnings. Any comments?

robert

December 19, 2024 - 2:20 pm

sonny, if the feds put a stinky deal together to avert cliff and the fed pumps another trillion in liquidity into the system, stocks could rally into the spring. multiples are low relative to bonds and free cash flow is strong. business aint great, but profits are great b/c companies not investing and hiring. so its the old, no where to go but stocks game that bubbles bernak is looking for.

robert

December 19, 2024 - 2:45 pm

imho, that assumes a lot of things go right. like record corporate profits hold up. no recession. no cliff dive. no oil spike. etc

jeffmiller

December 19, 2024 - 3:16 pm

@robert: On the fiscal cliff, I have not seen anything to change what I wrote in my regular weekly article https://wallstreetallstars.com/indicator-update-time-for-some-clarity/

jeffmiller

December 19, 2024 - 3:17 pm

The biggest immediate concern is the various tax changes from the Bush era, the capital gain, dividends, the AMT, and the doc fix. All of these will disrupt tax planning and have an immediate economic effect.

alanlevit

December 19, 2024 - 3:21 pm

@jjss: I thought Bob's company was JBL, but Jay said that didn't fit, because they are going to have double digit revenue in 2013. I bought a very small position yesterday and I'm going to hold it through earnings tonight. If I didn't have any right now, I wouldn't buy any until they report. Current price is around 18.5. They were as high as 24 in Sept; and 27 in March. Est. earnings for FY 2013 (Aug) is 2.55; Est. for 2014 is 2.92. Stock is very cheap, tonight we'll find out much of that cheapness is deserved.

alanlevit

December 19, 2024 - 3:21 pm

@sonny: from your pixels to G*d's ears

jeffmiller

December 19, 2024 - 3:22 pm

Getting something constructive on deficit reduction would be a big help, and it seems close based upon the proposals we have seen. The market is reacting to the public posturing, which does not mean much. Please note that some who say that we will "go over the cliff" are referring to the deficit issues, not the tax issues. I also note that Stan Collendar still sees a 75% chance of cliff diving. While he does not cite any "inside" sources, he has a lot of experience on the Hill. My experience relates more to studying many decisions like this. I have been pretty accurate on predicting political outcomes.

alanlevit

December 19, 2024 - 3:25 pm

@jeffmiller: It seems to me like the media is making a big deal about a deal before 1/1/13. It also seems to be that a deal in the first week (or two) of January would be fine. Personally, I think it's more likely to be early in January, since pledge signers will be voting for tax decreases in January, when the same tax levels would be tax increases in December. Any comments?

Mitchm

December 19, 2024 - 3:41 pm

Jeff, do you agree with Jim Bianco? was just on CNBC...

kim

December 19, 2024 - 4:13 pm

nice work on JBL, Bob!

robert

December 19, 2024 - 4:48 pm

thanks. good quarter with the rarest of birds, decent revenue growth!

robert

December 19, 2024 - 4:54 pm

jbl revenue growth was 7.2%, but that was negatively impacted by their "high velocity" division, which they are running down on purpose for margin reasons. the businesses that represent the future are growing strong double digit. and it was more than i expected which pulled down revenue numbers

jeffmiller

December 19, 2024 - 5:13 pm

@alanlevit: On a substantive basis, an early vote by the new Congress would not be that much different. Obama has the power to delay changes in withholding, for example. On a psychological basis, many would fear the worst. Many have renounced the pledge, but who knows if it is enough? This is something that should pass with moderate votes from both parties.

jeffmiller

December 19, 2024 - 5:16 pm

@Mitchm: Bianco has been an excellent contra-indicator for at least the last eighteen months. He very creatively comes up with ideas for how bad things can be that no one else has thought of. This is typical of "bond guys." Those of us who have a variety of programs -- both long and short, stocks, bonds ETFs, are more flexible in the outlook.

alanlevit

December 19, 2024 - 5:34 pm

@robert: So JBL was the right guess after all! I wish I'd had more than a token starter position, but I will be adding more tomorrow, hopefully around 19!

sonny

December 19, 2024 - 5:36 pm

@Bob: Great call on JBL. I used to work with them when I was at Cisco.

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