Fear and greed on Wall Street: Who’s scared now?

Fear and greed are a big part of one of the first lessons I learned on Wall Street, which was that the markets tend to make a fool out of the most number of participants as often as it can.

The market is not always a nice guy. That is, when sentiment among traders and investors gets wildly one-sided, either bullish or bearish, the market will often put in an immediate move in the opposite direction from what all that extreme sentiment was expecting.

On the one hand, Rich Gobel, the hottest trader I know, is still all about the long side and he’s been printing money — his latest two hits were 3-D Printing company ExOne XONE +2.99% buys from yesterday and catching the bottom in pharma-biotech play Silver Spring Networks SSNI -2.98% last week. On the other hand, my old buddy Todd Harrison makes the point that there are no bears left on Wall Street these days. Just how extreme is that reading right now? I still know a lot of “permabears” out there struggling to survive though.

Since I first started my blog on Marketwatch a few years ago and back for years on my other blogs, I’ve occasionally asked, “Who’s more scared right now, the bulls or the bears?” to try to get an idea of when the sentiment of the mainstream trader and investor has gotten lopsided.

For example, back almost exactly two years ago, the poll showed 99% and then 100% “Bulls are more scared” readings in August and September 2011.

Results on September 21, 2024 – 100% “Bulls were more scared”

Three months after that poll, the market was up 10%.

Results on August 29, 2024 – 99% “Bulls more scared”

Three months after that poll, the market was up 11%.

Results on July 11, 2024 85% “Bulls more scared”

Three months after that poll, the market was up 9%.

Since I’ve been on Marketwatch starting back in 2009, there’s never been a 85% or higher reading of “Bears more scared.” That’s reflective of the bull market that we have indeed seen bubbled up since 2009.

So, the upshot is that it’s time for another round of Wall Street’s favorite TV Game Show, “Who’s more scarred right now, the bulls or the bears?” You can email me you answer at [email protected], or leave a comment below or just go take the poll itself.

Cody Willard writes Revolution Investing for MarketWatch and posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com, which is not affiliated with MarketWatch. At time of publication, Cody was net long XONE, gold and silver. Follow Cody on Twitter at twitter.com/codywillard.

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Cody Willard

Founder, CEO & Chairman at Wall Street All-Stars, LLC

Cody Willard is the founder of Wall Street All-Stars and the principal of CL Willard Capital. Cody serves as an adjunct professor at Seton Hall University and writes TradingWithCody.com. He was an anchor on the Fox Business Network, where he was the co-host of the long-time #1-rated show on the network, Fox Business Happy Hour. He wrote a monthly investment column for The Financial Times as well as columns for TheStreet.com and was a regular guest on CNBC’s Kudlow & Company from 2004 to 2006. Cody’s stock picking ideas and economic outlooks have been featured on NBC’s The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, ABC’s 20/20, CBS Evening News, CNBC’s SquawkBox, Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show, as well as in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and many other outlets.

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