Regarding Intel, I find it hard to sell this stock at such a low valuation just as a big, new innovation cycle is beginning in notebooks and hybrids. Some of the PC decline was postponement of purchases as a complete new breed of PC is emerging for consumers. Enterprise PC sales were much better.
Conventional laptop is fading. The Intel plan is to migrate to hybrids and tablets. It owns the server processor market for now, and has large ambitions in handsets. So Intel has to manage a transition to accommodate mobile. In fact, the lack of innovation in PC left it vulnerable, but that is being addressed finally. How successful these will be remains to be seen.
If intel repositions its business and grows again, it will be a home run. If they don’t, it will be dead money. I heard Seagate was a value trap two years ago at $10 as well. It was even a bigger trap than intel as it sold an obsolete component into an obsolete product. Now, look at how profitable that value trap turned out to be.
Intel and Microsoft are one decision. Do they use strengths to migrate away from wintel and towards more mobile and cloud and big data? Intel has already covered two of these. It needs much more exposure to personal mobile devices. I don’t mean to minimalize the necessary work and the risk. but if they make it in handsets and tablets, they could be a 100% trade over a few years.
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