My Gut Feeling For Today, October 4, 2024

October 4, 2024 By Scott Rothbort Leave a Comment

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For the third time in all three October sessions, the equity markets put in a ho-hum session. Ahead of tomorrow’s monthly labor report, I don’t see today being any different. So, expect another snoozer.

If I was to score the debate last night, on a heavyweight 10 point mandatory scale, I would give Romney 10 Obama 9. Edge to Romney but there are still several more rounds to go.

Hopefully you got the chance to pick up more or start a position in Chuy’s (CHUY) yesterday on its early drop. Next on my shopping list is Freeport McMoRan (FCX). I would like to see this one come down to its 50 and 200 day moving averages which seem to converge just about around 38.

The big winners last nite were the Yankees who capped off another successful season by capturing the AL East championship. Queue up Frank Sinatra. Spread thennews. Go Yankees !!!

Long - CHUY

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Filed Under: All-Star Originals, Classroom Archives, Economy, Food, Restaurants, Bev & Ag, Markets, Materials, Stocks Tagged With: CHUY, FCX

About Scott Rothbort

Scott Rothbort has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. He is the Founder and President of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, www.lakeviewasset.com a Registered Investment Advisor specializing in customized separate account management for high net worth individuals. In addition, he is the founder of TheFinanceProfessor.com www.thefinanceprofessor.com an educational social networking site where his blog also resides; and, publisher of The LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report www.restaurantstox.com , a newsletter focusing on investment and trading ideas in the food, restaurant and agricultural sectors. Mr. Rothbort is also a Term Professor of Finance at Seton Hall University’s Stillman School of Business, where he teaches courses in finance and economics; is the Chief Market Strategist for The Stillman School of Business; and, the co-supervisor of the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis. Feel free to reach out to Scott Rothbort by email at [email protected]

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Platinum Chat

robert

October 8, 2024 - 10:26 am

where's the vol? seems that the market is pinned by fundamentals to the upside and the bernanke put/QEternity to the downside. the bulls are thinking they have a free option on positive earnings surprises because nothing can get this market working to the downside.

jeffmiller

October 8, 2024 - 11:07 am

Columbus Day effect on volume? No bond trading. Most were predicting lower volume.

jeffmiller

October 8, 2024 - 11:08 am

or did you mean volatility? There was not much in the way of market-moving stuff over the weekend.

jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 11:30 am

Stocks with earnings this week that fit the criteria I am looking for to give potential surprises include: SWY, HST, BNNY, HELE, PLXS, EMMS. Next week will have dozens

golfcar101

October 8, 2024 - 11:33 am

@jonathan: do you like bnny as an investment or just er play

Randy

October 8, 2024 - 11:38 am

@jonathan; was wondering how you your analysis? Enter data into an Excel Spreadsheet or more complicated software?

robert

October 8, 2024 - 12:33 pm

jeff, o was thinking volatility. market has been very range bound since bubbles bernak pronouncement.

jay

October 8, 2024 - 12:59 pm

lol Bob..bubble

jay

October 8, 2024 - 1:00 pm

bubbles that is..used to be my nickname for one of my girls when she was little

Jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 1:25 pm

Hey LLY had element of surprise with: In Lilly's pre-specified secondary analysis of pooled data in patients with mild Alzheimer's disease, a statistically significant slowing of cognitive decline was shown; this finding represented a 34% reduction in decline.

Jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 1:26 pm

Finviz is a great tool for screening.

Jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 1:28 pm

Almost all of my earnings ideas are overnight or short term swing trades

robert

October 8, 2024 - 1:29 pm

jay, fed monetary policy seems to be to create asset bubbles to stimulate consumption/production as a substitute for legitmate economic activity. bubbles bernak is he.

jay

October 8, 2024 - 1:44 pm

vrng

jay

October 8, 2024 - 2:09 pm

sorry..error

Jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 2:40 pm

LLY is gone

Jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 2:41 pm

LLY hosting a call at 5:30

Jonathan

October 8, 2024 - 3:30 pm

A number of analysts don't believe in the total significance of the data for LLY to get approval for LLY, More clinical work is needed according to JPM. The stock is not listening.

alanlevit

October 8, 2024 - 3:36 pm

@kim: QRE is up to $20.40, where they were before the infamous offering. Do you guys think another offering is coming. As far as I know, from their 1st qtr CC, the sponsor has 7 mil of units to sell, and they want out by the end of the year.

kim

October 8, 2024 - 4:00 pm

@alanlevit: from what I hear, they'll probably do a secondary to fund another purchase/dropdown...but honestly, dont know when. sure does seem like a good time to do it, no?

alanlevit

October 9, 2024 - 10:01 am

@kim: That's what I think. Two of my other positions, BBEP and VNR, did secondaries last month and both are in the money. I wrote about them here http://seekingalpha.com/article/911101-mlp-secondaries-the-great-the-good-and-the-risky,

robert

October 9, 2024 - 11:18 am

plan c, my last bearish template for the year, had a peak in the market in early october. actually its a projection from carl futia that he has since rejected. but i am stickin with. if correct, we have had or will shortly have a top. and the next few months will be ugly. i am putting out some more shorts this week and next, as i wrote i would. i have no idea if the futia model will play out or not. i do know that my buy screen is generating a sell signal. no valuation is safe. mo-mo to no-mo is a disaster. i can imagine a no where to hide correction.

robert

October 9, 2024 - 11:43 am

i have been incorrect on 2012 spring top followed by a bear market into early 2013. however, many indices including the very broad based value line arithmetic basically only recovered to march high. anyone who sold on my spring warnings has not had too expensive an opportunity cost, unless of course you play gold with unlimited mulligans and only count your good shots.

robert

October 9, 2024 - 11:57 am

and we still have time for a beautiful correction.

robert

October 9, 2024 - 12:24 pm

and jeff, i will have an answer for your sell in may question by year end...

jeffmiller

October 9, 2024 - 12:44 pm

@robert: I'll look forward to that

sonny

October 9, 2024 - 1:36 pm

@Bob: I don't expect we will sell off much even earnings will fall short. Again, there are no many REAL sellers of stocks left. They all left for bonds and gold. Secondly, if you sell your stocks here, what are you going to do with the cash? There is no place to hide. The Fed is insane, but you have to make money for your investors.

robert

October 9, 2024 - 1:39 pm

sonny, it sure feels as if you are correct. i am expecting the slowing macro, slowing micro, fiscal cliif risk, and euro debt problems to change investor psychology. the conditions you describe existed from 2010-2012 and we got a decent pullback each year, so clearly selling begets selling. but i do understand your point and consider a threat to my correction case.

jeffmiller

October 9, 2024 - 2:39 pm

Interesting that the market rallied after Wednesday's debate, widely attributed to Romney prospects. Then there was some reconsidering after the jobs numbers. Everything else being equal, one might have expected the very favorable Romney swing in the polls to be celebrated today.

jeffmiller

October 9, 2024 - 2:46 pm

@alanlevit: Interesting article and thanks for the link. You have a new follower on SA

ralphd353

October 9, 2024 - 3:37 pm

Sonny - your post is the scariest thing I've seen in the market in a while- the belief that we cant sell off. That to me is emblematic of the shift in sentiment that Bob has been talking about / anticipating as we rallied through Aug. and Sept. Better than any sentiment indicator. Btw - not trying to be insulting in any way, but you summed up what I've been reading everywhere so concisely that it jumped at me.

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 3:43 pm

I stock I am watching for earnings this afternoon in MG. It is thin so will likely be hard to trade. The company provides technology based asset protection solutions of plants and property. EPS for current Q (Aug-12) estimates for .14 and revenue 112MM. Next Q is .33 and 140mm. Last quarter weak margins hurt results, so I will look for improvement in margins without the loss of revenue. This won't be easy, but that will be a potential surprise. JPM has a 25.50 target for DEc-12, which is 9x EBITDA for JPM on Dec-13. Other analysts have price targets for 22-27.

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 3:46 pm

Again this is a thin stock and after market trading will be difficult. I will review the call and reports for trades tomorrow.

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 4:02 pm

MG slight beat .15 and 115mm

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 4:06 pm

113.4mm rev

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 4:08 pm

Year-end projections seem in line

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 4:17 pm

YUM surprise is the same store sales comps at 6% vs. expectations of 4.3% and China growth at 6%.

sonny

October 9, 2024 - 4:38 pm

@ralphd353: YUM is fine. AA is not bad. FDX, NKE, MMM, CAT reported businesses are slow, but their stocks did not go down much. These companies are using cash to buy back their stocks. 10-year bond yield is at 1.7%, below inflation rate. If you sell stocks here, are you going to stay in cash and hope you can time the bottom to get back in?

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 4:42 pm

I think YUM gets close to $70 tomorrow. Metrics were good. Cramer favorite,

scott

October 9, 2024 - 4:46 pm

@jonathan: strong comps for YUM

jonathan

October 9, 2024 - 4:52 pm

Very, interesting to see if GS analyst becomes more positive. China metrics were good, but future macro may still be an issue in some eyes. Yum plans to open over 1600 new stores outside U.S.

ralphd353

October 9, 2024 - 5:16 pm

@sonny: agree with you its a conundrum. Stocks are trading above levels where they were when they pre-announced to the downside; we are all losing money by being in cash, cds or short-term fixed income; but I am always concerned when the consensus is that this market can't go down. It seems everyone thinks its ok that Q3 earnings will be negative or flat yoy; that outlooks for Q4 and 2013 will come down and the fiscal cliff will all be non-events, because China will provide stimulus and the fed has its foot on the pedal. I am feeling more and more like something's gotta give and this tends to happen when no one thinks its will. All summer people hated the rally, now no one believes a real sell-off can occur (other than Bob Marcin and Doug Kass), I think it's foolish to ignore this sentiment shift, particularly given the poor fundies.

robert

October 9, 2024 - 5:43 pm

Another miss from Cummins, notable for breadth as much as magnitude. Maybe this time the market will care. I still believe stocks overpriced for the fundamentals. But who knows, maybe its reason to overpay more for housing. But wait, didnt Owens Corning just miss big?? Oh well, Toll is still bullet proof.

robert

October 9, 2024 - 5:44 pm

I guess it just that everyone has to play catch up and carelessly throw money at stocks because the Fed is buying mortgages and they promise to keep at nit til the Dow is 20,000.

jonathan

October 10, 2024 - 8:55 am

Most amalysts positive on YUM. china met or exceeded most expectations. GS, still has mixed outlook and is waiting for negative comments on the call.

jonathan

October 10, 2024 - 9:17 am

HST key metric is hotel rev/par 7.6% vs. 6.4%. RBC goes to top pick and 19 target. Below 16 looks like a very good entry point

jonathan

October 10, 2024 - 9:31 am

YUM call extremely positive and stock ripping in accordance

jonathan

October 10, 2024 - 9:36 am

HST CC at 10AM. I will be listening. ML has 19 target

golfcar101

October 10, 2024 - 9:37 am

@jonathan: thanks for info

jonathan

October 10, 2024 - 9:41 am

YUM call very positive. Below 70 is a good price.

jonathan

October 10, 2024 - 9:45 am

YUM: said Q4 SS in china will be low single digits. Seems to be worrying some.

alanlevit

October 10, 2024 - 10:16 am

@sonny: There are other places for money besides stocks and cash or equivalents. I like preferred stocks including the PGF ETF. There's also the high yield bonds and their ETFs. All are decent places to park money and should get you 6+% in today's zero rate environment. I also like MLPs, but those are equities. All have been great on both a dividend and total return basis.

robert

October 10, 2024 - 12:24 pm

stocks are not down enough to get investors worried yet. they might not have a catalyst to accomplish that. then again profit taking on mediocre fundamentals might turn the ship. it should be an interesting earnings season.

robert

October 10, 2024 - 12:59 pm

i saw a popular financial commentator recommend swapping bank cds for jnj share for income purposes. dangerous game. 5 years of yield can be lost in bad month for stocks. sign of the top for yield plays?

Mitchm

October 10, 2024 - 2:17 pm

I saw that 2....LOL

sonny

October 10, 2024 - 3:14 pm

@Bob: what you think of DE here? I'm trying to average in slowly.

robert

October 10, 2024 - 3:30 pm

sonny, i have been cautious on cyclicals, even ag. i took a starter position in my wheel and tire stock b/c of a company specific large organic/acquired growth spurt. i would not buy machinery stocks in general from the expected profits recession i am expecting. i like ag and de for when the market economy, so i think you have the right horse!

robert

October 10, 2024 - 3:31 pm

market/economy bottoms.

sonny

October 10, 2024 - 4:41 pm

@Bob: Thanks for the comments. I'm sure DE will have a lot of horse power in the next UP cycle (or is it DEER power?) .....

robert

October 11, 2024 - 11:43 am

so mr bear, dont get so orny by an up open, or rally. these things must happen in order to establish a downtrend. they must be sold into to change market psychology.

robert

October 11, 2024 - 2:09 pm

like this so far today.

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