My Hanukkah Present For 2012

December 10, 2024 By Scott Rothbort Leave a Comment

In celebration of Hanukkah, I am providing all Wall Street-All Star subscribers a complimentary issue of my newsletter, The LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report. Enjoy.

If you order the newsletter before the end of the year, you can lock in the annual subscription rate of $199.99 or the monthly subscription rate of $19,99. On January 1, 2025 the subscription prices will be increased. Current subscribers have already locked in the old rates.

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Filed Under: All-Star Originals, Food, Restaurants, Bev & Ag

About Scott Rothbort

Scott Rothbort has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. He is the Founder and President of LakeView Asset Management, LLC, www.lakeviewasset.com a Registered Investment Advisor specializing in customized separate account management for high net worth individuals. In addition, he is the founder of TheFinanceProfessor.com www.thefinanceprofessor.com an educational social networking site where his blog also resides; and, publisher of The LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report www.restaurantstox.com , a newsletter focusing on investment and trading ideas in the food, restaurant and agricultural sectors. Mr. Rothbort is also a Term Professor of Finance at Seton Hall University’s Stillman School of Business, where he teaches courses in finance and economics; is the Chief Market Strategist for The Stillman School of Business; and, the co-supervisor of the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis. Feel free to reach out to Scott Rothbort by email at [email protected]

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Platinum Chat

alanlevit

December 10, 2024 - 11:29 am

Performance of QRE today is amazing. 8.7 million units have now traded hands (7.6 Friday, 1.1 today and counting); 12 million were originally offered. Price today has ranged from 16.18 to 16.27 and offering price is 16.25 (12% yield). If 12% looks good to you, it may not be available that much longer!

robert

December 10, 2024 - 12:34 pm

The fallact of an improving deficit. As we come to address the obscene deficit spending problem in these fiscal cliff negotiations, i wanted to share with the world, the progress that has been made in this area. According to a leading economist, federal receipts are up and spending is close to flat the past two years so material progrss has been made on the deficit. Well, they Feds may tell us that, but we really dont know for sure. They do all kinds of b.s. manipulation to make things look better, ostensibly for our own sake. But I just looked at the federal debt numbers for the past three years. And it reveals a worsening of the deficit. /I dont give a sh*t what they tell me is happening, here are the debt numbers: debt growth fy13, our current year- $300 million, debt gorowth fy2012-$281 million, and debt growth fy2011, 2

robert

December 10, 2024 - 12:35 pm

$274 million.

robert

December 10, 2024 - 12:38 pm

So its still a $1,300 billion deficit run rate and its still 8% of gdp, and its still not improving, and its still unsustainable, and its still gossing corporate profits much more than they would be otherwise. So for those of us who want real numbers, and not feel-good, spin from the Feds, the recoevery is not being seen in our governments income statement. Not at all.

robert

December 10, 2024 - 12:42 pm

And for those of you who attempt to normalize our economy and national income statement and hence attempt to adjust corporate profitability for such, take comfort that your fundemantal obsdeervations about an unsustaianable eceonomy and profit margin might be correct, however, dont expect any movement to normal conditions from the pols soon. No voter wins when we spend with our revenue.

robert

December 10, 2024 - 12:49 pm

You can thank the promiscuously easy Ben Bernank for making all this possible. Without much debate, and without any oversight, the chairman apparently has decided to permit the charade to continue by making up the difference with unlimited money printing. You see, last summer the Fed had no net balance sheet expansion with just its Twist program. But now, since the fall, the Fed has decided that $40 billion per month of mortgages should be bought out of thin air money(TAM) and now $45 billion of government bonds should be purchased from TAM, thin air money. Yet the politicians and public have been hardly consulted in the 0 to $trillion QE ramp. I guess the Bernank takes the infinity part of his new QEi policy quite seriuosly. This continues the strategy of Illusionomics, inflating asset prices and moentizing government debt, to give the illsuion of a recovery, without fixing the structural problems we face that cause slow growth.

robert

December 10, 2024 - 12:59 pm

We excoriate the europeans for their nanny state social spending, and we pat ourselves on the back for our superior economic decisions to support growth, yet here we are with the biggest deficit spend on any western developed economy. We are so proud of ourselves. And it makes me sick to hear this cliff debate turn into a fight-to-the death over a 39.5% marginal tax rate when everyone ignores the severe structural problems that need attention. I guess we need not worry. The Berank will monetize another one thousand billion dollars in government spending this year. And the market will ignore all of the problems, and masses will be kept happy with more social spending than we can afford, and all will be good. And maybe i will even turn bullish for once. now, if you want real proof of the end of the world, consider that....

robert

December 10, 2024 - 1:00 pm

sorry for the rant. it just happened when i saw the debt growth accelerate over the past 3 years.

alanlevit

December 10, 2024 - 1:12 pm

@robert: Is there any way to fix our structural problems with the deficit without reducing or eliminating benefits to people receiving them? I don't think so, and if not I don't see that happening either. That leaves monetizing the debt, and Bernanke seems to agree!

robert

December 10, 2024 - 1:25 pm

alan, the only long term solution is to match revenues with expenses. but thats something we dont seem to get.

alanlevit

December 10, 2024 - 2:25 pm

@robert: Between 80 and 90 percent of expenses are entitlements (almost 50%), defense and interest on the debt. We will only match revenues with expenses by reducing entitlements, and only then by taking them away from people getting them right now. I wish us luck with that!

alanlevit

December 10, 2024 - 2:30 pm

@robert: I'm sorry, I forgot about the other solution, which is to increase revenues to match entitlements. That's the way northern Europe does it, and it works (especially in Scandinavia). My guess is that we get there to, sooner or later.

alanlevit

December 10, 2024 - 3:35 pm

I've got a new article up on QRE http://seekingalpha.com/article/1055451-qr-energy-risky-but-worth-it

golfcar101

December 10, 2024 - 3:45 pm

good info allan

alanlevit

December 10, 2024 - 3:46 pm

@golfcar101: thanks

scott

December 10, 2024 - 4:17 pm

@alanlevit: how about the Logan's Run solution ?

kim

December 10, 2024 - 4:27 pm

@alanlevit: I've been selling some QRE to you today!

alanlevit

December 11, 2024 - 11:52 am

@scott: What's the Logan's Run solution?

alanlevit

December 11, 2024 - 11:53 am

@kim: I thank you and I've been happy to take it off of your hands. Is it tax loss selling or is there something wrong that I've missed?

robert

December 11, 2024 - 2:14 pm

well, its no fun being underinvested on days like today. i assume its an all-QE-all-the-time rally, rather than good tidings towards a cliff resolution. jeff asked me whether i preferred my shoe selection to my microprocessor stock. and i favored the consumer stock to the tech stock b/c its easier to get paid in soft/non cyclicals. its that simple these days.

robert

December 11, 2024 - 2:25 pm

on may 5, 2011, the bernank did this big speech about implementing a so called macroprudential policy for systemic risk manangement in the financial system. Assuming they belch out another trillion or two of Thin Air Money, how does that fit with macroprudentiality? How does monetizing the fed deficit fit with macroprudentiality? Or was this policy simply an excuse/diversion to remove culpability from their failure as systemic risk overseers in the credit crisis? It sure seems to be that way to me. The fed is now manipulating asset prices in order to stimulate economic activity. Where does creating asset bubbles fit wthin the policy of macroprudentiality? Inquiring minds want to know.

scott

December 11, 2024 - 2:36 pm

@alanlevit: Logan's Run http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan's_Run

sonny

December 11, 2024 - 2:46 pm

@Bob: The Fed's QE & ZIRP policies are having counter-effect on job creation. Instead of using cheap money to create jobs, most investors are "trading" the cheap money around: special dividends, stock buybacks, flipping houses, and yes, laying off more workers so the companies can have more profit to pay for more dividends. No one actually takes the Fed's free money and go hiring more employees. The banks are buying more US treasuries with their cash instead of lending out to small business. It's all a crony system to me!

scott

December 11, 2024 - 3:18 pm

@alanlevit: Logan's Run http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan's_Run

kim

December 11, 2024 - 3:18 pm

@alanlevit: been busy today, simply tax loss selling, will be buying it back in 31 days, just in time for the next distribution to go ex!

robert

December 11, 2024 - 3:19 pm

thats correct. the free money pumps up real and financial asset prices, but does little to foster job creation or adjust systemic imbalances . yet employment mandate is how the fed justifies QEi, a decidly macro-UNprudential policy.

robert

December 11, 2024 - 3:19 pm

despite all their degees, the academics at thefed display little common sense at times.

alanlevit

December 11, 2024 - 4:06 pm

@kim: thanks much for the update/ clarification. BTW, so far this looks like a textbook offering/ recovery. Most of the offering has been sold (11 mil if I counted right, less whatever tax selling is out there). The price has closed up a little each day. i hoping we get back to 17 (or higher) by the end of the week!

kim

December 11, 2024 - 4:33 pm

@alanlevit: yes, it has seemed to process the volume nicely...it certainly has the characteristics of a trading stock, that's for sure!

sonny

December 11, 2024 - 5:13 pm

@Bob: DuPont and Cummin just announced $1 B stock buy back each. There was no news on how many workers they intend to hire next year.

alanlevit

December 12, 2024 - 9:26 am

@kim: Most MLPs are trading stocks following secondaries. It only makes sense if the MLP is in a tax-deferred account (like and IRA) but it works great in those cases.

robert

December 12, 2024 - 10:04 am

sonny, the fed might as well buy bonds til 8th grade student standardized math tests improve. that's as relevant in job creation. or til oprah keeps the extra 50 lbs off. let me be honest here. the fed is blatantly manipulating asset prices, bonds stocks and real estate, higher to save the banking system, first and foremost. the fed is owned by the banks and serves them. every thing else is collateral damage or benefit. niether the political class nor the population get this.

robert

December 12, 2024 - 10:10 am

the clueless at the fed have never acknolwedged excess leverage in the financial system, never managed the systemic risk in the system, as per their mission statement, and still think monetary policy, buying more bonds, will solve the structural problems we face. i would argue that the fed has it totally wrong, stuck on emergency measures since the crisis they never saw, and generating unintended consequences that are hindering the recovery and job creation. i have written this for years and stand by it. the fed itself needs to stand down.

robert

December 12, 2024 - 10:33 am

scott, kudos for calling the rally. its true the market is pricing in a cliff deal. but its not yet done, and i question the market's conclusion. now i know a deal must happen by definition. but i argue that a comprehensive solution will not be reached this time and we will onlt kick the can. is that good or bad for shares?

robert

December 12, 2024 - 10:36 am

also, QE does support stock valautions by lowering the risk free rate, and by providing liquidity for repurchases. it also reinforces the berbank put. if qe doesnt help, why are the bulls so insistent about its neessity this meeting?

sonny

December 12, 2024 - 10:40 am

@Bob: Bernanke claiming himself an expert on Great Depression. That's why he'd do everything that was not done in GD and maybe even much more. I'm betting in the next few years, he'd buy even corporate & muni bonds. The man does not know his limits.

scott

December 12, 2024 - 10:54 am

@robert: Thanks. In answer to your question, the equity market has had to some extent navigate a lost decade enduring two crashes, excuse me bubble bursts. The Bond market has had a 30 year bull market with a slowly inflating bubble sucking out assets from equities courtesy of the Fed. The stock bulls want that popped once and for all. The Fed has by their actions over an extended period of time destroyed the stock market. People are chasing yield in every little cockroach infested corner and selling equities in the process. The more QE is desired by the bulls to put the final hurt on the bond bubble , in my opinion. QE has not helped corporations with earnings or operational cash flow but as we both agree to fund some buybacks or debt refinancing. The day of reckoning is coming not for the stock market but for Pimco and Blackrock and the bond market.

sonny

December 12, 2024 - 12:00 pm

@Bob: This is from Janet Yellen: "If it is possible to take interest rates into negative territory, I would be voting for that" Amazing stupidity!

robert

December 12, 2024 - 12:25 pm

she is a lightweight. as i said, what happened to macroprudential policy?

sonny

December 12, 2024 - 1:10 pm

@Bob: One day the Fed will buy stocks - I'm sure of that. The Fed is like a rich kid, blowing away his parents wealth.

scott

December 12, 2024 - 1:25 pm

@sonny: highly doubtful

robert

December 12, 2024 - 2:43 pm

scott, i think we are following japan with respect to debt monetization. its 50/50 if we stoop to buying stocks directly to support the economy.

Mitchm

December 12, 2024 - 2:44 pm

any comments on munis today MUB????

robert

December 12, 2024 - 2:45 pm

the bernak doesnt think $45 billion per month of unsterilized bond buying any different from $45 billion of bond duration swapping. Huh?

sonny

December 12, 2024 - 3:19 pm

@Bob: This QE 4 announcement today is huge, yet the market is flat. Had this be 2010, the market may be up 300 points easily (QE2 David Tepper rally, remember?) This only means QE is no longer having any positive effect on the stock market. Even gold and oil are not up much. I'd say Bernanke & the gang should go home and let the market be.

jay

December 12, 2024 - 3:50 pm

Sonny, he pretty much said he is going home, just not in plainspeak

robert

December 13, 2024 - 1:59 pm

well, as we noted, rally of last week was FAR from TAM. thats a Fed Anticipation Rally from Thin Air Money. attributing it to improving cliff outlook was premature, imho. as was the fumdamental story. now we see what happens when we get a lick-the-can, stopgap deal in late january.

robert

December 13, 2024 - 2:03 pm

i ask u to prove to me how a trillion of debt monetization creates jobs? it doesnt change the regulatory and tax burdens corporations face. it doesnt help lower burdensome health care costs. it doesnt help people borrow more, since they dont see the loans. no, private sector capex and job creation do not benefit. maybe we get a trillion of social and defense spending we need to monetize, and that may save some jobs that shuldnt exist. but no one hires because the bernank debases the currency.

robert

December 13, 2024 - 2:20 pm

print money is the only policy solution anyone can agree on. its a friggin disgrace that our politicians and business leaders cant agree on a solution to increase domestic employment via tax policy, education/training incentives, and regulatory reform. we need to make it economic to onshore design, engineering and production once again. with corporate profit margins, dividends, and share buybacks at record levels, clearly the ability to hire and invest is there for corporate america. its a friggin disgrace that the bernak has to print money to stimulate job creation. a friggin disgarce. a job crisis is not solved by printing trillions.

robert

December 13, 2024 - 2:22 pm

ben, we know your story is a load of b.s. we know there is no transmission mechanism between buying bonds and hiring people. but we all will live with it cause it props up or portfolio stock and bond values.

sonny

December 13, 2024 - 2:40 pm

@Bob: FAR from TAM!!! That is too good!! lol

sonny

December 13, 2024 - 2:48 pm

@Bob: We need to send all of them to Germany to learn how they did it after the re-unification. The German labor, gov't, business worked together to keep and retrain workers. They don't lay off employees during hard times. They cut hours and pays across the board to save jobs. They got it going so well the past 20 years while we borrowed to buy more stuff that made in China where we send our jobs to. It's a disgrace to our founding fathers and future generations.

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My Hanukkah Present For 2012

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