On Insurance Stock Indexes

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I’m still toying with the idea of starting an insurance-only hedge fund. I own a lot of insurers, and I think that I get the better of that market.

Where I have a harder time is with what to short. Shorting is tactical not structural, and I am less good at the tactical vs structural. Having a tradable benchmark to short against would be useful, but what exists there?

There is one ETF focused on insurance that has any significant volume — KIE. In the past, it was capitalization-weighted, but now it is equal-weighted. That stems from a change in the index that the ETF follows, from one set by KBW to one set by S&P.

Personally, I don’t get the change, but here are my statistics on the change:

The “Old KBW” column comes from segmentation done by KBW. The other columns are done by me. There are some matters for judgment:

Do you include Berkshire Hathaway? I think you should. Do you include foreign life insurers traded on US exchanges? I think you should.

I am also more willing to place a company in the “Conglomerate” category because of companies that are in multiple lines of insurance, without a dominant area of insurance that they are in, or, they have significant non-insurance ventures.

Anyway, the new KIE overstates the insurers in Bermuda and the Brokers. It understates life insurers and conglomerates.

Aside from that, the new S&P index, being equal-weighted, is more mid-cap than a whole market index would be. Also, if I put more effort into this, I would segment companies into their proportions, and there we be no conglomerates.

These may be trivial concerns to some, but if you are thinking of running a portfolio that might be shorting KIE against other insurance longs, it makes a considerable difference.

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About David Merkel

2010-present, David is working on setting up his own equity asset management shop, tentatively called Aleph Investments. From 2008-2010, he was the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities. He did many things for Finacorp, mainly research and analysis on a wide variety of fixed income and equity securities, and trading strategies. Until 2007, he was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. He also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm. From 2003-2007, he was a leading commentator at the investment website RealMoney.com. His background as a life actuary has given him a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that he deals with in this blog.
All of these goals rely on the help of Jesus Christ and his readers.

  • http://www.codywillard.com/amazon-is-very-oversold-and-other-must-reads/ Amazon is very oversold and other must-reads

    [...] On Insurance Stock Indexes - Merkel’s thinking about starting an insurance-only hedge fund and the reason I like the idea is because that is a sector that he has more experience analyzing and trading than probably any one else on the planet — and he’s developed an edge there with that experience and insight. He knows more about the Prudentials PRU, MetLife’s MET, and Hartford’s HIG of the market than anybody I’ve ever met. When you trade a stock or invest with a hedge fund manager, are you sure you/they have an edge? [...]

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