Platinum Chat for March 29, 2025

sentiment signal closer to sell, but not quite there. market becoming narrower. stocks that are down have fundamental challenges. i continue to harvest profits...without the ability to reinvest....cash continues to build tho still net long.

my buddie dougie kass is net short. he has bigger testicles than i...

http://www.techinasia.com/seemingly-weak-ipad-sales-foxconn-workers-complaining/

interesting article though not sure you can draw any definitive conclusions from it

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/317654/20120321/ipad-3-new-release-return-date-complaint.htm

Permabid comes in right here--SPY 139 weeklies for 1.31

GOOG 655's for 4

All the Bears wetting themselves now because we are down 100--won't last, they will glom on to short side and get smacked in the side of the head again.

Bulls will keep it bid thru quarter end

I had to laugh yesterday when some clowns were telling everyone to buy certain healthcare names because ObamaCare had bad day at oral arguments---anybody who advises anyone to game Supreme Court oral arguments should have their licenses and registrations revoked. Idiots. It's not gameable.

BTW Bob, thanks for flagging RDS/A added some yesterday and trying to add more today. TOT and SLB trying to add as well.

Those trades I flagged are now 1.49 (SPY) and 4.5-4.8 (GOOG) I'm holding, but those are not bad profits for 1/2 hour

bears still need to see down closes. yesterday was only the first.

Interesting to me that the banks are mostly higher---WFC up 1/8, some of the regionals up as well. Should be off in this tape.

Robert, I'm short NAZ this morning as I believe we have seen the high for the year.

i wrote that one template had mid-late march high for year. cody reposted the column with the bradley model recently. that high would be early seasonally, and go against such a strong q1, but it's still a possibility. if the fundamentals deteriorate like last 2 spring/summer periods, it wouldnt surprise me to see a decent correction.

Jay, if you go thru the chart of every stock, you will notice that 70% of them never make a new high since last April. This market is being carried by Apple and some big cap Techs. When they break, the whole thing will break.

What if they don't break?

Agree re charts, but you are not going to knock this market down for more than 5% absent a black swan

Too much liquidity out there. Too much pension money rotating out of bonds

Also, residential housing is clearing. Why do you think banks are up in this tape?

Without housing crashing, bears lose one of their biggest arguments. Only thing they have going for them now is seasonality. Even a weaking Eurozone won't really do all that muchm and it might help US equities---it would just give ECB more reason and another excuse to start cutting aggressively. Don't fight the central banks--you will lose.

That would defy all the rules of capitalism = All good things will come to an end. At one time, Sony could not do no wrong in consumer electronics and RIMM in smart phones.

I do take the seasonality argument very seriously though. Don't take "peak margin" argument seriously at all. Fairy tale. It's like shorting a stock on valuation alone--it's a loser. Unless you can point me to the specific input that is going to wreck margins, they can stay elevated for longer than you think.

Sure Sonny, but when is the key, no?

Yes, timing is everything. But Apple is the largest cap stock in the world right now. What is the most likely outcome for it in the next 5, 10 years? The answer may lie in MSFT and CSCO history.

You'll probably be right---eventually. Hope you don't go broke in the meantime shorting NDAQ when AAPL and GOOG make new highs in Q2. Good luck.

Short. Cover. Short. Cover. Never stand in front of a bull run. lol.

Here come the buyers---any close north of down 50 on Dow is victory for bulls

This is a win for the bulls---not even down 100 and the banks trade like Dow is up 50-75 points. Sorry bears.

reckon they'll take another crack at it tmrw

Would it be ironic if the top of the market this year coincide with the debut of the movie "Hunger Game"? In fact, Lions Gate is already down 20% since last week.

lol... very good sonny

while rhino is right, there is a tenacious bid on dips, every dip results in more technical damage to the market's breadth. The same thing happened last spring. Sectors rolled one by one but indices held up as investors piled into mo-moand defensive favs. When that ended stocks hit massive air pocket in summer. While indices holding up, many industries breaking down now. Some important technical divergences emerging. We may still be in buy dip mode, but trend clearly not as healthy as fat part of rally.

Bob and bears win this one today. Selling is heavier and oil/banks under pressure. Not good. Let it play out.

Permabid TRYING to step in here--think it fails today.

@Scott: window dressing: to show they've been invested and not sitting on too much cash

Scott--was talking specifically about trying to trade it intraday based on the pattern we've seen over and over for the past few months. Normally I would step in and try to play the pattern of weak opens, followed by intraday rally. Was only pointing out that I wouldn't do that today. Did you just switch to decaf today?

Scott, but Europe are in red, Italy 3% down. considering that , ....we are strong today with the help of the supports in the S&P and DJI. We do not have much room to go down....

giorgio--we've had a monster rally into Q end. We've got a TON of room to go down. I don't think we will, but don't kid yourself.

the UUP at 22 and a sell off on china are the problems

This is my pair trade going into year-end: short iOS and long Windows 8. That means you short AAPL and long MSFT, INTC, STX, WDC.

lol

i think that's jay's way of saying ...

It wouldn't be a bad idea, except all those other names are just as overbought/extended as AAPL. Id rather doe the long GOOG short AAPL

This explains why we will have a big bull market all the way till November. Have you seen what Obama and France's Sarkozy did to the oil market this week? Wait till China cutting rate tonight! http://www.gfmag.com/archives/148-march-2012/11618-cover-story-global-elections-2012.html#axzz1qX8sURyl

scott--I'd like to add to ARCO. Would you wait? Technicals point to a bit lower price. Looking to back in around 17.5 area.

Thanks--just added a few nov 17.5's

Mark it down--china cuts this weekend. All the crappy metal stocks rallying today. Heck, even VALE is up!

crappy coal stocks up too

@scott: I don't know much about options, since I can't trade them (covered options only in IRAs). The option chain says there are calls at 1405 and 1410 on the SPX as well as 1400. Is there a reason why 1400 is more appealing as a strike than 1400?

perma bid still there. bulls won again. bears pulling hair out.

Gotta say I was surprised by that one today Bob.

Most stocks are up, AAPL is down. That would be the first in a long time.

Not saying it should, but every longer term chart/mometum indicator is lining up for SPY spike to new highs. I'm not talking 145 either; Monthly chart looks to me like a challenge of 155 stochastics fill out as they have in past moves. Again, not saying it should, but that's what I see.

rhino, did they forecast similar spikes at the 2010 and 2011 tops or not?

i am leaning to the old, logical 1440-50 top as expected by futia, nenner, and others. if it triggers an II sentiment sell signal, i might even short there.

AAPL got 15% of S&P 500 total earning last quarter. What happens to the whole market if AAPL miss earning estimate this quarter? http://www.bloomberg.com/video/89314889/

If the economy is growing strongly, then please explain to me why "safety" stocks like CL, JNJ, KO, PFE, MO, PM are breaking out to new highs?

@sonnyblue: because folks are reallocating money back to equities and there is still a preference for blue chips names with dividends

raise your hand if you have the blue chip bah humbugs

call me nuts but i think RIMM is a buy here .. im not convinced their business only focus is a bad idea