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Here’s all the latest and greatest insights from earlier in today’s Platinum Chat Room on how to trade AAPL now from some of the best money managers on the planet.
Robert Marcin
April 24, 2024 - 9:35 am
My opinion on apple is this - company outlook for current quarter was a disaster. first time revenue declines yr/yr in ages. this can be the start of the big margin issue. revenue growth loss always preceedes margin contraction. if apple lowers price and investments more to restart revenue growth, it will hit margins. i am not comfortable buying companies over earning when the music stops. it may be a cheap stock down here. however, slashing numbers is never postive for a stock, period.
Robert Marcin
April 24, 2024 - 9:41 am
apple’s operating margins are stunning compared to any other handset maker, past or present. even the most successful makers only did 10-12% after tax. aapl dwas doing 2x that. if one puts that range on $34 billion revs for june, we get $3.4-4 billion in profits. with nearly 1 billion shares, thats $3.50-$4.25 in eps. while june is usually seassonally low, this would be a far cry from $45 annualized eps. margin contraction from current levels to 10-12% would make aapl a large value trap.
Robert Marcin
April 24, 2024 - 9:43 am
I would not necessarily conclude that aapl will suffer margin contraction to that degree, but if so, the stock still has material downside risk. if they hold margins at current levels, stock is cheap and would be a good long over next year. before you make an appl long bet, make sure you have an opinion on the sustainability of 20+% after tax profit margins in a world where samsung prices products for around 12%.
Madison Montana
April 24, 2024 - 11:07 am
$AAPL Earnings Strategy Worked nicely. Now I am watching the 405/408 On Upside and the 385/390 Levels On Downside. Retested After Hours High of 430 and Stopped at 415. Today’s Close is Key
Jordan Kahn
April 24, 2024 - 12:03 pm
I have to think that a new $60B buyback and 3% dividend puts a floor under AAPL. Stock trading at 8x fwd eps.
Jacob Franklin
April 24, 2024 - 12:06 pm
I know a lot of people stick with AAPL right now - but until there is a clear picture with them I am staying away from AAPL, from a business perspective not sound right now in many areas. I've been looking at alternatives through Exness stock trading platforms where you can diversify into other tech companies with better fundamentals - just my gut feeling about the current market.
Robert Marcin
April 24, 2024 - 12:34 pm
I am thinking I would attempt to bottom fish aapl around $350 on further estimate cuts. without a revolutionary new product category, aapl should see further margin pressure. i would pay for $30 of sustainable eps, but not much more. that means $350 is a better buy target than $400. if margins hold, stock has bottomed, and i will miss it.
Robert Marcin
April 24, 2024 - 12:35 pm
Chanos long aapl and short hpq this year, last year, good trade, this year a disaster.
Madison Montana
April 24, 2024 - 12:37 pm
$AMZN Planning TV Set-Top Box For Streaming IP Video cc $AAPL $NFLX $VZ
Robert Marcin
April 24, 2024 - 12:53 pm
Citi has been right on lowballing aapl ests. but even they dont have the earnings risks in the numbers. if aapl does $160 ish billion in revenue, remember that $200 bil is ancient history, and they margins at 12% after tax, still best in world for consumer electronics biz, they would make arounf $20 per share. even with the cash, aapl would crater on $20 eps. i guarantee it.
Bryce Smith
April 24, 2024 - 1:56 pm
Stock buy back + dividend= 400 floor for AAPL. Yield seekers come in at these levels as well.
Cody Willard
April 24, 2024 - 3:21 pm
If Apple earnings $60 this next year and $70 next year, and if the stock goes back to a 10 P/E multiple, plus you add what will be close to $200 a share in cash at that point even after the buy backs and dividends, you’d have a $900 stock sometime in 2014 or early 2015.
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Apple Stock is manipulated constantly by Short Selling and options traders. Look at the decline last Fall. The Short interest went up 25% as the stock price was driven down. The cure is - split the stock 10 for 1. The profit in shorting will dry up quickly when you get 50 cents down for your efforts instead of $5.