Here’s my take on the markets today, September 3rd, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here.
Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating today. The FRA-OIS Spread is down -3.7% to 19.5 bps. The Germany sovereign cds is down -1.5% to 28.0 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is down -1.6% to 240.75 bps. However, the 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is falling -1.7% to -10.07 bps. The TED Spread is gaining another +2.1% to 24.4 bps(+20.5% in 5 days). The 2Y Swap Spread is gaining +3.1% to 17.0 bps. The European Investment Grade CDS Index is rising +1.6% to 105.15 bps. The Spain sovereign cds is up +1.3% to 231.83 bps. The Emerging Markets CDS Index is gaining +1.1% to 343.9 bps. The Russia sovereign cds is up +1.2% to 201.02 bps. The Brazil sovereign cds is up +2.5% to 210.7 bps. Overall, credit gauges are mixed over the last week despite the global equity rally over the last couple of days.
Major Asian indices were mostly higher overnight, led by a +2.99% gain in Japan. However, India plunged -3.45% and is still near its lows for the year(-6.1% ytd). Major European indices were mostly lower today, led down by a -.8% decline in France. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is falling -.1%. Brazil is falling -.6%.
The euro is falling -.39% and is testing its 200-day today. The yen is falling -.06% and is breaking back below its 50-day. Oil is rising +.8% and still trades well. Copper is gaining +2.2%, but still trades poorly. The benchmark China Iron-Ore Spot Index is unch. Gold is gaining +1.4% and is trading well again despite a stronger US dollar and Fed taper concerns. Lumber is jumping +3.1% today, but still trades poorly overall. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is up +.4%, but also still trades poorly. The 10Y T-Note has stabilized but still doesn’t trade well with the yield up +7 bps today to 2.85%.
The major averages are giving up most of their opening gains on the rise in long-term rates and Syria intervention worries. Looking at the big picture, whether or not we intervene in Syria won’t change the fact that the entire region is descending into chaos, which will likely lead to another surge in oil to problematic levels over the intermediate-term. Moreover, the rise in long-term rates is already impacting the housing market in a negative way. If the economy continues to improve, as most investors are currently anticipating, a likely surge in the 10Y yield meaningfully above 3% would probably stop the housing recovery in its tracks and result in a larger overall economic headwind than currently perceived. Finally, despite recent investor optimism, I believe key emerging markets will only become a bigger and bigger problem over the intermediate-term.
Gaming, Biotech, Networking, Steel and Coal stocks are strong today, while Utility, Software and REIT stocks are weak. I am still positioned 25% net long.
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