Here’s my take on the markets today, September 13th, 2013. If you’d like to read more of my articles, click here.
Credit gauges are mostly deteriorating today. The FRA-OIS Spread is down -2.5% to 19.5 bps. The North America Investment Grade CDS Index is down -1.1% to 77.01 bps. The Germany sovereign cds is down -2.1% to 26.0 bps. The Japan sovereign cds is down -1.6% to 61.97 bps. The Brazil sovereign cds is down -2.8% to 173.37 bps. However, the 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is down -3.1% to -8.71 bps. The TED Spread is rising +1.9% to 24.4 bps. The European Investment Grade CDS Index is up +.7% to 98.1 bps. The UK Sovereign cds is up +2.0% to 34.84 bps. The Italy sovereign cds is up +2.0% to 252.04 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is up +2.9% to 260.18 bps. The Portugal sovereign cds is up +4.4% to 557.48 bps. The China sovereign cs is up +2.9% to 84.0 bps. The South Korea sovereign cds is up +4.5% to 75.0 bps. The Indonesia sovereign cds is up +5.3% to 256.0 bps. Overall, credit gauges have improved this week, with the noteworthy exception of Italian gauges.
Major Asian indices were mostly lower overnight, led down by a -.9% decline in China. Major European indices were slightly higher today, led by a +.2% gain in France. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index fell -.2%. Brazil is gaining +.7% and is trading better of late.
The euro is rising +.05% and is still stuck in the middle of its intermediate-term range. The yen is up +.19% and it is also still stuck in the middle of an intermediate-term range. Oil is falling -.4%, but is at session highs and still trades well. Copper is flat on the day and still doesn’t trade well. The benchmark China Iron-Ore Spot Index is falling -.52% and has likely made another intermediate-term top. Gold is falling -.8% and is trading poorly again. Lumber is gaining +2.99% and is testing its 200-day. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is falling -1.0% and still trades very poorly. Finally, the 10Y T-Note still doesn’t trade very well with the yield down just -1 bp to 2.90%, despite some weaker economic data today.
The major averages are displaying their usual resilience today with another v-low after an opening swoon. Stocks still seem to “want to go higher” in the short-run and investor complacency is again moving rapidly to unhealthy levels. Optimism over China’s apparent economic rebound, easing Syria/Russia tensions and stabilizing long-term rates are the current upside catalysts. However, while these former headwinds have subsided a bit in the short-run, each looks poised to resurface as investor worries over the coming months. China is resorting to many of its usual tactics to temporarily boost growth which will further increase overcapacity and raise the odds of an eventual hard-landing over the intermediate-term, in my opinion. While the odds of an imminent direct US intervention in Syria have fallen, the big picture in the Middle East remains extremely disturbing with the odds of an eventual oil price spike to worrisome levels fairly high. Long-term rates have stabilized of late as Fed tapering should now be priced in, but any meaningful short-term traction in the economy would likely send the 10Y yield surging above 3%, leading to dramatically slower growth or economic contraction over the intermediate-term. Finally, the debt ceiling debate is likely to result in more market turbulence than currently perceived.
Airline, Gaming, Retail, HMO, Hospital and Utility shares are strong today, while Coal, Metals/Mining, Disk Drive and Homebuilding stocks are weak. I covered some of my index trading hedges this morning and I am positioned 50% net long.
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